Freethought & Rationalism Archive

three4jump · 03-22-2002, 10:40 AM

In this <a href="http://www.rochester.edu/pr/News/NewsReleases/scitech/hallevolution.html" target="_blank">article </a>scientists are learning to predict how bacteria will evolve to become drug resistant, so they can make new drugs in advance without waiting for the bacteria to evolve.

(By the way, perhaps the new drugs designed with the help of knowledge of evolution should be withheld from creationists, since they don't believe in that stuff, and they can just pray that the bacteria doesn't kill them.)

I know it's a leap to predict the future of human evolution, when we're just starting to guess how bacteria will mutate, but just as a fun exercise I would be interested to hear how all of you evolution geniuses would predict the future of human evolution might unfold.

Nowadays, it's pretty damn hard to die. You almost have to kill yourself with the abuse of food, drugs, or cigarettes. And even then, your genes will have had plenty of opportunities to make it to the next generation. Natural selection isn't working on us the way it did for millions or billions of years. My uneducated guess is that human evolution or lack of evolution will be regulated in the future by the evolution of culture. Therefore, a theory of the evolution of culture would be necessary to predict human evolution, not just genetic evolution.

Any thoughts?

ex-robot · 03-22-2002, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by three4jump:
In this <a href="http://www.rochester.edu/pr/News/NewsReleases/scitech/hallevolution.html" target="_blank">article </a>scientists are learning to predict how bacteria will evolve to become drug resistant, so they can make new drugs in advance without waiting for the bacteria to evolve.

(By the way, perhaps the new drugs designed with the help of knowledge of evolution should be withheld from creationists, since they don't believe in that stuff, and they can just pray that the bacteria doesn't kill them.)
Any thoughts?

I'm sure you would have a hard time keeping it from creationists like Macreadie IG. Oh, I'm sorry. Were you just putting forth a strawman as a joke?

xr

Jamie_L · 03-22-2002, 10:49 AM

If you haven't already, go read "Foundation" by Isaac Assimov. It's a fictional novel about just this sort of thing: using science and math to predict the future course of human history. Pretty good read.

Jamie

three4jump · 03-22-2002, 11:05 AM

Jamie, I am familiar with Harry Seldon's plan for the future of history. I don't think psycho-history as Asimov envisioned it is quite the science we need to predict the future of evolution, but something involving the social sciences and not just pure genetic evolution.

Before we figure it out, though, I think machines will pass us by and leave us in the dust. Suppose I create a robot that can create ten new robots. He is programmmed to make each one different while trying to make them all "better." Each new generation of robots has ten times as many variations from which selection, either natural or artificial, can choose. Even faster would be a process where the robot creates potential new robots in virtual reality and tests them there before actually producing them. Once robots get to the point of being autonomous, humans will just be interesting pets. Possibly.

three4jump · 03-22-2002, 11:10 AM

ex-robot, yes, it was just a joke.

Queen of Swords · 03-22-2002, 11:13 AM

Have you read Dougal Dixon's books, Man After Man and After Man? Speculations on the inhabitants of earth millions of years from now.

ex-robot · 03-22-2002, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by three4jump:
ex-robot, yes, it was just a joke.

Okay, my bad. Just sounded like the typical stuff around here that is actually believed.

xr

three4jump · 03-22-2002, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by QueenofSwords:
Have you read Dougal Dixon's books, Man After Man and After Man? Speculations on the inhabitants of earth millions of years from now.

I hadn't heard of that book. The synopsis on Amazon.com looked interesting. I would like to see the illustrations of the fifty-foot penguins he envisions! I'll see if my library has it.

Do you have an speculations on the future inhabitants of earth? Perhaps a new species of human with superior spelling abilities? Or perhaps descendants of Linguo, Lisa Simpson's grammar robot!

[ March 22, 2002: Message edited by: three4jump ]

RufusAtticus · 03-22-2002, 01:08 PM

In developed countries, viability selection isn't that strong, but fertility selection is still operating.

-RvFvS

Free Thinkr · 03-22-2002, 03:07 PM

I predict a degredation of human DNA over time. Inherited diseases will become more common as more people who are inflicted with them reach maturity and breed. I also believe we are cursed to get dumber... look at it, who has more children, stupid people, or smart people?

03-22-2002, 10:40 AM	#1
three4jump Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Useless Bay Posts: 1,434	Predicting the future of evolution. In this <a href="http://www.rochester.edu/pr/News/NewsReleases/scitech/hallevolution.html" target="_blank">article </a>scientists are learning to predict how bacteria will evolve to become drug resistant, so they can make new drugs in advance without waiting for the bacteria to evolve. (By the way, perhaps the new drugs designed with the help of knowledge of evolution should be withheld from creationists, since they don't believe in that stuff, and they can just pray that the bacteria doesn't kill them.) I know it's a leap to predict the future of human evolution, when we're just starting to guess how bacteria will mutate, but just as a fun exercise I would be interested to hear how all of you evolution geniuses would predict the future of human evolution might unfold. Nowadays, it's pretty damn hard to die. You almost have to kill yourself with the abuse of food, drugs, or cigarettes. And even then, your genes will have had plenty of opportunities to make it to the next generation. Natural selection isn't working on us the way it did for millions or billions of years. My uneducated guess is that human evolution or lack of evolution will be regulated in the future by the evolution of culture. Therefore, a theory of the evolution of culture would be necessary to predict human evolution, not just genetic evolution. Any thoughts?

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03-22-2002, 10:49 AM	#3
Jamie_L Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: U.S. Posts: 2,565	If you haven't already, go read "Foundation" by Isaac Assimov. It's a fictional novel about just this sort of thing: using science and math to predict the future course of human history. Pretty good read. Jamie

03-22-2002, 11:05 AM	#4
three4jump Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Useless Bay Posts: 1,434	Jamie, I am familiar with Harry Seldon's plan for the future of history. I don't think psycho-history as Asimov envisioned it is quite the science we need to predict the future of evolution, but something involving the social sciences and not just pure genetic evolution. Before we figure it out, though, I think machines will pass us by and leave us in the dust. Suppose I create a robot that can create ten new robots. He is programmmed to make each one different while trying to make them all "better." Each new generation of robots has ten times as many variations from which selection, either natural or artificial, can choose. Even faster would be a process where the robot creates potential new robots in virtual reality and tests them there before actually producing them. Once robots get to the point of being autonomous, humans will just be interesting pets. Possibly.

03-22-2002, 11:10 AM	#5
three4jump Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Useless Bay Posts: 1,434	ex-robot, yes, it was just a joke.

03-22-2002, 11:13 AM	#6
Queen of Swords Contributor Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Canada. Finally. Posts: 10,155	Have you read Dougal Dixon's books, Man After Man and After Man? Speculations on the inhabitants of earth millions of years from now.

03-22-2002, 01:08 PM	#9
RufusAtticus Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: NCSU Posts: 5,853	In developed countries, viability selection isn't that strong, but fertility selection is still operating. -RvFvS

03-22-2002, 03:07 PM	#10
Free Thinkr Banned Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: Indiana Posts: 4,379	I predict a degredation of human DNA over time. Inherited diseases will become more common as more people who are inflicted with them reach maturity and breed. I also believe we are cursed to get dumber... look at it, who has more children, stupid people, or smart people?

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