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Old 01-10-2003, 06:00 PM   #1
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Question Arguments against Smith's Wager?

Here are some quotes I get from posting about Smith's Wager at a message board...

Quote:
This suffers from some of the same faults as Pascal's Wager, namely that limited possibilities are assumed, and the probability of each possibility is unstated (and thus assumed equal).

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If someone had an honest belief that it was acceptable to practice human sacrifice and cannibalism, then it would be unjust to condemn them? Smith's argument presupposes that relativism is an absolute virtue. It is not and cannot be definition by an absolute.

Also, this is an incorrect statement of Christianity. In Romans, Paul stated that those who were not exposed to Christianity would be judged by their hearts. However, assuming God is perfect it will be difficult to meet this standard, but according to Paul it is technically possible. But if one is aware of Christ's message, which is that one is saved through grace, not reason or good deeds or conformance with a set of laws, then one would be a fool to turn away from such an easy alternative and in rejecting that alternative risks damnation. That is what make's Pascal's wager seem much more attractive.
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The existence of god can be proven only by reasonOkay, that's the first flaw. Why is that? The theory gives a statement and never backs it up. Some things can be proven without reason. The argument of a lot of aethiests is that they are so worried about proving God exists. For example, most of the current things we know about the atom haven't been proven by reason but by observing things under microscopes.
I'm just wondering what do you folks think about these quotes...
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Old 01-10-2003, 06:10 PM   #2
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You may want to post or link to a version of Smith's wager. I've heard of it, but don't know it well enough to comment on it.
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Old 01-10-2003, 06:15 PM   #3
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Here is the link; http://www.atheistalliance.org/libra...als_wager.html
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Old 01-10-2003, 06:56 PM   #4
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Personally, I think Smith's wager is meant more as a parody of Pascal's (thus highlighting it's inadequacies) but just for fun:

Quote:
This suffers from some of the same faults as Pascal's Wager, namely that limited possibilities are assumed, and the probability of each possibility is unstated (and thus assumed equal).
It makes you wonder that the other possibilities are. Just because the list is limited doesn't mean all of the possibilities aren't covered (e.g. people are either male or female covers all of the gender possibilities for the most part.) Of course, Smith is discounting the possibility that God really does care what you believe, but as I said, it is just a parody.

The probability of each possibility is quite irrelevant to the argument (though I would suspect that Smith would argue that the probability of that last item I mentioned is close to zero.) The outcomes are all indifferent or bad.

Quote:
If someone had an honest belief that it was acceptable to practice human sacrifice and cannibalism, then it would be unjust to condemn them? Smith's argument presupposes that relativism is an absolute virtue. It is not and cannot be definition by an absolute.
This argument is irrelevant. Smith's wager is only on one's beliefs, not on his actions. Nor does it have anything to do with relativism.

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Also, this is an incorrect statement of Christianity.
Also irrelevant. Smith is arguing that even if Christianity is right, their god is simply too untrustworthy to take seriously.

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Okay, that's the first flaw. Why is that? The theory gives a statement and never backs it up. Some things can be proven without reason.
I'd ask for an example. I know of no other way of proving things outside of reason (ten to one he'll say God can be proven without reason.)
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Old 01-10-2003, 07:07 PM   #5
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Cool, I've never seen Smith's Wager before. As a moderate-liberal Christian, I fall under category 3. I think Smith's wager provides a good stop-and-think message for the fundies in category 4.

However, I see a small problem in Smith's Wager: I've used an almost identical argument myself as an argument for theism.

I disagree with Smith's assessment of categories 1 and 3.
If God does not exist (but we don't know it), is it better to be an athiest or a theist? Smith says:
"[Atheist: you'll live] a happy, fulfilling life free of mindless dogma and emotional tyranny."
I'd say:
"Theist: you'll live happily believing your life has a purpose; that you'll see your dead relatives and friends one day; that there is some real basis for caring about others and doing what is right; that everything has eternal and ultimate value and will not one day be as if it had never existed."

I think Smith has got fundamentalists in mind with his statement too, not moderate Christians.

Smith also implies that if category 3 is the case there is no advantage to be gained by belief over non-belief. I disagree even more here than about category 1. In category 1, the theist and the atheist both die and there are no further consequences of what they believed. In category 3, the consequences extend beyond the grave. While these consequences don't take the form of punishment by God, experience suggests that it's generally beneficial to belief the correct thing and generally unhelpful to believe the wrong thing.

Thus, in my version of Smith's Wager, I conclude category 3 Theism. Apart from that, I see no problem with Smith's Wager and think the quotes you posted are entirely unjustified.
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Old 01-11-2003, 09:24 AM   #6
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Some of you think I'm taking spoon-feeds, but I do ask because even as a freethinker, Smith's Wager has flaws on it's own.

But thanks for reminding me it's a parody!
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Old 01-11-2003, 01:45 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tercel
Smith also implies that if category 3 is the case there is no advantage to be gained by belief over non-belief. I disagree even more here than about category 1. In category 1, the theist and the atheist both die and there are no further consequences of what they believed. In category 3, the consequences extend beyond the grave. While these consequences don't take the form of punishment by God, experience suggests that it's generally beneficial to belief the correct thing and generally unhelpful to believe the wrong thing.
'Experience suggests'? What experience? Are you speaking from firsthand knowledge as one who has died and visited the afterlife (or not) under a variety of circumstances?
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Old 01-11-2003, 08:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tercel

I disagree with Smith's assessment of categories 1 and 3.
If God does not exist (but we don't know it), is it better to be an athiest or a theist? Smith says:
"[Atheist: you'll live] a happy, fulfilling life free of mindless dogma and emotional tyranny."
I'd say:
"Theist: you'll live happily believing your life has a purpose;
Or frustrated that said purpose robs one of ultimate control.
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that you'll see your dead relatives and friends one day;

Or that you'll know they're burning in hell when you don't see them.
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that there is some real basis for caring about others and doing what is right;
Or that, without God's alleged guidance, you might be a psychopath.
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that everything has eternal and ultimate value and will not one day be as if it had never existed."
Or that the time we spend as physical humans is ultimately meaningless in comparison to eternity.
Quote:
I think Smith has got fundamentalists in mind with his statement too, not moderate Christians.
I think all your counterpoints are ambiguous. Thus, I think "free of mindless dogma and emotional tyranny" is a vastly more valuable goal.
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Old 01-12-2003, 02:55 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by Philosoft
Or frustrated that said purpose robs one of ultimate control.
I wasn't aware you had ultimate control. Did you become Omnipotent without telling us?

Quote:
Or that you'll know they're burning in hell when you don't see them.
That's only true after you've died, in which case they'll be burning in hell if you don't see them regardless of what you believed. Prior to death, belief in an afterlife provides for the belief that you'll see your loved ones again.

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Or that, without God's alleged guidance, you might be a psychopath.
???

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Or that the time we spend as physical humans is ultimately meaningless in comparison to eternity.
That's a strange way of looking at it. What we do now affects our characters and that of other people for the rest of eternity. How is that ultimately meaningless?

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I think all your counterpoints are ambiguous.
Well I don't.

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Thus, I think "free of mindless dogma and emotional tyranny" is a vastly more valuable goal.
But as a liberal who reasons out my own beliefs I'm certainly "free of mindless dogma" - definately more so that some of the (fundamentalist) atheists I've seen on these boards. "emotional tyranny"? I'm not quite sure what's meant by that one.
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Old 01-12-2003, 07:18 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tercel
I wasn't aware you had ultimate control. Did you become Omnipotent without telling us?
Poor wording on my part. Perhaps, "feeling of ultimate control" or "belief in ultimate control."
Quote:
That's only true after you've died, in which case they'll be burning in hell if you don't see them regardless of what you believed. Prior to death, belief in an afterlife provides for the belief that you'll see your loved ones again.

Does the average Christian really believe this about his Buddhist cousin?
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???
I've seen more than a few Christians thank their lord that he provides a framework of behavior, lest they never realize killing is bad.
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That's a strange way of looking at it. What we do now affects our characters and that of other people for the rest of eternity. How is that ultimately meaningless?

Eh? Believe in God/Jesus, go to heaven. Are there levels of heaven for sincere believers who did morally questionable things during their lives?
Quote:
But as a liberal who reasons out my own beliefs I'm certainly "free of mindless dogma"

As a Christian, you probably reject some science related to cosmology, evolution, or abiogenesis. Do you do so because you truly understand the implications or because they conflict with some parts of your belief system?
Quote:
"emotional tyranny"? I'm not quite sure what's meant by that one.
I suspect it has something to do with "original sin" - making people feel bad about themselves so that a forgiving father-figure seems that much more attractive.
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