Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Soul Invictus · 12-16-2002, 04:48 PM

I was talking with my younger brother last night and he was basically saying it was worth it to believe. He's 17, and I thought that it was pretty clever how he reasoned for atheists' that didn't have faith.

Given the following situation, what would your feedback be?

Tools:
-If God exists it will never be proven (anything short of a miraculous event (e.g. he/she exposes him/herself from the heavens and speaks, etc...)

- If God exists, he/she is fair (this is a highly debated issue, so work with me on this one)

Now, given these two premises, one has two options, to believe, or not believe. Here are the possible outcomes:

IF YOU BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS-(and you live the quote unquote "righteous life", then your destination is heaven

IF YOU BELIEVE AND GOD DOESN'T EXIST-(still living the "righteous life") then you don't go anywhere but to the earth after you die, which is okay

IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS- you go to hell

IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD DOESN'T EXIST - you go nowhere but to the dirt, so it's all good

***I purposely left out the sequence of believing and not living a righteous life, because it would be nonsensical, but it will make a difference later in my post.

Now given these possible outcomes, my brother's reasoning is that a believer would be looking at 100% surety that his soul/afterlife experience (heaven) is in tact, whether God exists or not.

A non-believer's chances are drastically less by looking at a 50-50 crap-shoot. Even if you throw in the wild card last scenario of believing and not acting on your belief, a believer would still have a 2/3rds chance of being assured of either a neutral or positive non-hell afterlife experience.

I smiled when he wrapped it up by saying it basically paid to believe. It was pretty savvy to me. Not expecting to change anyone's views but what are your thoughts regarding religious probability? I thought this might be a fresh new type of post for the philosophers that frequent the forums.

Invictus

Amie · 12-16-2002, 05:30 PM

Hi Soul Invictus

I think it may be hard for some to find any type of continuity between this statement:

If God exists, he/she is fair (this is a highly debated issue, so work with me on this one)

and this one:

IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS- you go to hell

This is by far my greatest obstacle as a believer. I just can't seem to see what is "fair" about God sending "his children" to burn in a pit of fire for all eternity for simply making mistakes using the free will that he gave us...

I wish I had all the answers...

[ December 16, 2002: Message edited by: Amie ]

ajm51987 · 12-16-2002, 05:34 PM

Ahh? Isen't this Pascals Wager? Anyway, I think that's too bad that some people go through life thinking "Oh no! Ive made a mistake! Now what will god think?" After every action. Now of course I think that everyone should have morals and everything but I think that level of submission is silly. I dunno. Im a recovering xian, and sometimes it still hurts to think!

Elaborate · 12-16-2002, 05:44 PM

But does the existence of a god necessarily imly the existence of an afterlife? Or, stipulating an afterlife, does the existance of a god iomply a heaven and hell? The problem is, your brother is thinking in a "Christian" (for want of a better word) mode, in that he assumes, that if God exists, everything else about Christianity is true. But one does not necessarily follow the other; indeed, assuming the existance of a god would only logically lead to a deist position.

Carlos · 12-16-2002, 06:14 PM

This does look very much like Pascal's Wager, named for 17th century mathematician Blaise Pascal. There are a number of problems with this argument, the most important one probably being that God is sure to know whether your belief is "pure" or not (whether you really believe or whether you claim you do because of this argument), and is unlikely to allow impure people to enter heaven.

It's not exactly the same as Pascal's Wager, though. It appears your brother is assuming that belief goes hand in hand with a righteous life; presumably he who does not believe does not lead a righteous life and therefore goes to hell. This assumption is invalid (many faithless do lead righteous lives), though, so his argument does reduce to Pascal's Wager.

But putting all that aside, it is not the case that this is a 50-50 game. Probabilities are not equal. There are four options, not four equally likely options.

Consider the following analogy:

IF IT RAINS AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry (it's a light rain)
IF IT RAINS AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you get wet
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry

This does not mean that those of us without umbrellas have a 50-50 chance of getting wet. The probability that it will rain fluctuates a good bit.

Living Dead Chipmunk · 12-16-2002, 06:22 PM

The problem with this is that the wager is NOT 50/50. According to adherents.com, there are 22 major religions in the world (and that's not counting the different protestant denominations). Thus, a Christian has only a 1/22 chance of having picked the correct religion. So an atheist who converts to Christianity gives up his current life in pursuit of an afterlife he's only got a 4.5% chance of attaining.

Ask your brother what he's going to say to Allah or Vishnu when he dies.

Eudaimonist · 12-16-2002, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Soul Invictus:
- If God exists, he/she is fair

If God existed and was "fair", God would not require that people become spineless pragmatists and give up their intellectual integrity to play belief crap-shoots. This whole exercise is invalid, or at least undesirable, on that alone.

tk · 12-16-2002, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Now given these possible outcomes, my brother's reasoning is that a believer would be looking at 100% surety that his soul/afterlife experience (heaven) is in tact, whether God exists or not.

The main problem we have in this world is not with people's afterlives, but what they do with their present lives. Instead of issuing real help to real people in real need, fundamentalists tend to waste their time and everyone else's time prating about theological issues.

I wonder, why do people keep thinking about the future, when the present is already problematic enough?

Autonemesis · 12-16-2002, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Carlos:
Consider the following analogy:

IF IT RAINS AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry (it's a light rain)
IF IT RAINS AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you get wet
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry

Uhh, shouldn't your analogy be this instead:

IF IT RAINS AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry BUT you had to carry a clumsy umbrella around all day
IF IT RAINS AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you get wet BUT didn't have to lug any umbrella anywhere
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry BUT you carried a useless umbrella everywhere to no effect
IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry AND you didn't have to carry any stupid, useless umbrella

[ December 16, 2002: Message edited by: Kind Bud ]

Walross · 12-16-2002, 07:58 PM

My main problem with Pascal's Wager (for that is what this is), is that it assumes that people are able to choose whether or not they believe in a diety. I don't know about anyone else here, but my skepticism renders me incapable of believing extraordinary claims without evidence. So I guess if a jealous diety actually does exist, and is hiding himself, I'm hooped. So be it - I wouldn't bend knee for such a being anyways. Regards,

Walross

edited to add: I love your addition to the umbrella analogy Kind Bud. you've hit the nail on the head.

[ December 16, 2002: Message edited by: Walross ]

12-16-2002, 04:48 PM	#1
Soul Invictus Contributor Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin Posts: 15,576	Religious probabilty - Do you like your chances? I was talking with my younger brother last night and he was basically saying it was worth it to believe. He's 17, and I thought that it was pretty clever how he reasoned for atheists' that didn't have faith. Given the following situation, what would your feedback be? Tools: -If God exists it will never be proven (anything short of a miraculous event (e.g. he/she exposes him/herself from the heavens and speaks, etc...) - If God exists, he/she is fair (this is a highly debated issue, so work with me on this one) Now, given these two premises, one has two options, to believe, or not believe. Here are the possible outcomes: IF YOU BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS-(and you live the quote unquote "righteous life", then your destination is heaven IF YOU BELIEVE AND GOD DOESN'T EXIST-(still living the "righteous life") then you don't go anywhere but to the earth after you die, which is okay IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS- you go to hell IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD DOESN'T EXIST - you go nowhere but to the dirt, so it's all good ***I purposely left out the sequence of believing and not living a righteous life, because it would be nonsensical, but it will make a difference later in my post. Now given these possible outcomes, my brother's reasoning is that a believer would be looking at 100% surety that his soul/afterlife experience (heaven) is in tact, whether God exists or not. A non-believer's chances are drastically less by looking at a 50-50 crap-shoot. Even if you throw in the wild card last scenario of believing and not acting on your belief, a believer would still have a 2/3rds chance of being assured of either a neutral or positive non-hell afterlife experience. I smiled when he wrapped it up by saying it basically paid to believe. It was pretty savvy to me. Not expecting to change anyone's views but what are your thoughts regarding religious probability? I thought this might be a fresh new type of post for the philosophers that frequent the forums. Invictus

12-16-2002, 05:30 PM	#2
Amie Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: New York Posts: 1,626	Hi Soul Invictus I think it may be hard for some to find any type of continuity between this statement: If God exists, he/she is fair (this is a highly debated issue, so work with me on this one) and this one: IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE AND GOD EXISTS- you go to hell This is by far my greatest obstacle as a believer. I just can't seem to see what is "fair" about God sending "his children" to burn in a pit of fire for all eternity for simply making mistakes using the free will that he gave us... I wish I had all the answers... [ December 16, 2002: Message edited by: Amie ]</p>

12-16-2002, 07:58 PM	#10
Walross Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Edmonton, AB, Canada Posts: 1,569	My main problem with Pascal's Wager (for that is what this is), is that it assumes that people are able to choose whether or not they believe in a diety. I don't know about anyone else here, but my skepticism renders me incapable of believing extraordinary claims without evidence. So I guess if a jealous diety actually does exist, and is hiding himself, I'm hooped. So be it - I wouldn't bend knee for such a being anyways. Regards, Walross edited to add: I love your addition to the umbrella analogy Kind Bud. you've hit the nail on the head. [ December 16, 2002: Message edited by: Walross ]</p>

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

12-16-2002, 05:34 PM	#3
ajm51987 Regular Member Join Date: May 2002 Location: Seattle, USA Posts: 245	Ahh? Isen't this Pascals Wager? Anyway, I think that's too bad that some people go through life thinking "Oh no! Ive made a mistake! Now what will god think?" After every action. Now of course I think that everyone should have morals and everything but I think that level of submission is silly. I dunno. Im a recovering xian, and sometimes it still hurts to think!

12-16-2002, 05:44 PM	#4
Elaborate Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: North Carolina Posts: 26	But does the existence of a god necessarily imly the existence of an afterlife? Or, stipulating an afterlife, does the existance of a god iomply a heaven and hell? The problem is, your brother is thinking in a "Christian" (for want of a better word) mode, in that he assumes, that if God exists, everything else about Christianity is true. But one does not necessarily follow the other; indeed, assuming the existance of a god would only logically lead to a deist position.

12-16-2002, 06:14 PM	#5
Carlos Senior Member Join Date: May 2002 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 545	This does look very much like Pascal's Wager, named for 17th century mathematician Blaise Pascal. There are a number of problems with this argument, the most important one probably being that God is sure to know whether your belief is "pure" or not (whether you really believe or whether you claim you do because of this argument), and is unlikely to allow impure people to enter heaven. It's not exactly the same as Pascal's Wager, though. It appears your brother is assuming that belief goes hand in hand with a righteous life; presumably he who does not believe does not lead a righteous life and therefore goes to hell. This assumption is invalid (many faithless do lead righteous lives), though, so his argument does reduce to Pascal's Wager. But putting all that aside, it is not the case that this is a 50-50 game. Probabilities are not equal. There are four options, not four equally likely options. Consider the following analogy: IF IT RAINS AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry (it's a light rain) IF IT RAINS AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you get wet IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry IF IT DOESN'T RAIN AND YOU DON'T HAVE AN UMBRELLA - you stay dry This does not mean that those of us without umbrellas have a 50-50 chance of getting wet. The probability that it will rain fluctuates a good bit.

12-16-2002, 06:22 PM	#6
Living Dead Chipmunk Regular Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: South Carolina Posts: 312	The problem with this is that the wager is NOT 50/50. According to adherents.com, there are 22 major religions in the world (and that's not counting the different protestant denominations). Thus, a Christian has only a 1/22 chance of having picked the correct religion. So an atheist who converts to Christianity gives up his current life in pursuit of an afterlife he's only got a 4.5% chance of attaining. Ask your brother what he's going to say to Allah or Vishnu when he dies.

Freethought & Rationalism Archive

The archives are read only.