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04-08-2003, 04:06 PM | #51 | ||
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Bubba,
Ha ha! I've read that argument before. Here's some interesting factoids about the HIV denyer camp: http://www.skepticism.net/articles/2001/000046.html Quote:
Here's some refutations of the Duensberg claims: http://www.med.sc.edu:85/lecture/appendix_2.htm Claims are in italics, refuations in regular type. Quote:
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04-08-2003, 04:34 PM | #52 |
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Scigirl...I think the evidence is overwhelming that HIV does cause AIDS. It's idiots like Phil Johnson who deny it that caused me to question my faith in the first place. Seing how nasty HIV/AIDS really is call into question both intelligent design and an intelligent designer in my honest opinion. Which is why I'm not sure I could call myself a Christian/thiest any more.
By the way, welcome back to II...I've missed your posts. Bubba |
04-08-2003, 04:36 PM | #53 | ||||
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Ok one more than I'll stop (embryology is calling my name).
I found a great site that goes into a lot of detail about both the science and the history of the AIDS skeptics. I think it was great for scientists to be skeptical of the hypothesis that HIV causes AIDS in the 1980's - when we didn't know that much about the theory. Duesberg in 1980 was very skeptical of the hypothesis. Why is he still skeptical? Well it could be that there is a massive government conspiracy, or it could be, it just could be. . . he doesn't want to admit he was wrong and likes the attention. Here's the site: http://www.skeptic.com/03.2.harris-aids.html Here's some highlights: Quote:
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But - the small population of people who (sort of) have "AIDS" without HIV - don't actually have an acquired deficiency at all! They have no known identical risk factors - and they certainly don't have the risk factors that Duesberg and his friends claim cause AIDS. So they don't fit either group's definitions - ergo, they are excluded. Secondly, this population of people do differ from AIDS patients even with the clinical criteria - the CD4 levels, the CD8 levels, and the specific types of infections don't fit the definition of AIDS. So, scientists continued to search for HIV negative AIDS patients. Here's that data: Quote:
Wow guys - you'll have to check out this Root-Bernstein guy - what a weirdo: Quote:
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04-08-2003, 05:07 PM | #54 | |
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Johnson is associated with the most prestigious ensemble of researchers the world has ever known; the Discovery Institute! And i'll be goddamned if isnt tron. I still remember our contractarian debate from like, two years ago. |
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04-08-2003, 10:18 PM | #55 | |
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Hey Bubba,
It's good to be back - even if it's temporary (stupid school!) Quote:
scigirl |
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04-09-2003, 03:07 AM | #56 | |
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04-09-2003, 09:27 AM | #57 |
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It's very often said that an HIV denialist or dubialist has to believe in a vast conspiracy. Not so. HIV/AIDS is no more a conspiracy than Christmas. It's appealing, people like it whether they "believe" it or not and go along with it. Workers at Hallmark greeting cards do not have to swear an oath of secrecy. Neither do doctors or technicians at path labs.
If HIV is a misnomer or a wimp then Duesberg would be just as correct now as in 1984. He was there in 1984. It makes to sense to apologize for what Duesberg believed then and say that he only maintains his stance for the sake of it now. People say that "AIDS victims" lived longer once drug therapies became available than they did in the early '80's before drugs. In the early '80's the people who were diagnosed with AIDS were people who came to the attention of doctors because they were sick. Once the antibody tests became available a higher proportion of healthy people were being treated with drugs. It figures that it takes longer to poison a healthy person to death than a sick person. Later still it is claimed that studies were done to demonstrate that HAART extended the lives of patients selected not for their state of health or duration of infection but on whether they did or did not receive therapy. These studies are very dubious even if you believe HIV/AIDS. They are funded by drug companies. They are halted if they begin to show unwanted results. Maybe toxic treatments provide a placebo effect for some people. Maybe the subjects getting treatment get more positive attention, more meals, have more supportive family etc. Maybe the subjects who don't receive treatment figure they are dead anyway, spend less time in the medical setting and more time doing what made them sick in the first place, spend more time alone. Anyway, studies like this are bunk if there is no such thing as HIV. There are people who have had access to centrifuges and electron microscopes every day of their lives for the past twenty years who maintain that HIV has not been isolated in any meaningful way and can not be isolated in an individual that is diagnosed HIV +ve...say... next week. Dr. Rick mentioned specificity and low risk populations, mind bending stuff. Is the specificity of a test a property of the test, the population, the result or a property of the individual? It spins my head. Generally it's agreed that a positive test result is less reliable in a low prevalence population. Yet you seemed to be saying the opposite. You seem to be assuming that a blood donor who tests positive is more likely to be a true positive because the other 9999 donors that year all tested negative. Maybe I've misread your post. People ask then, if it's not HIV what is it? It's a sad fact that in this city, like any other large city, there are a lot of very sick people getting around. Some are homeless, some are malnourished, some use alcohol or drugs in preference to food and shelter. Some are homosexuals and prostitutes. Some have got rotten teeth, bad skin, some kind of chronic infection or frequently getting infections. Some spend a lot of time in hospitals, others wouldn't go near them. Many are physically scarred, have track marks and have spent time locked up in gaols or psych hospitals. These are the people no-one wants their sons or daughters to become. These are the people whose blood was tested and retested until a test could be manufactured that showed these people had something in common, a protein, an "anti-body" that would reasonably consistently light up a test apparatus. It's like horse racing system software. You run formulas by trial and error on a spreadsheet of racing results until you find a system that would have worked. The trouble is that it doesn't work in the future. In 1984 I had no reason to doubt that a virus had been found that attacks the immune system until such time that the person dies from what would normally have been a treatable illness. But since then there has been too much bullshit and willful ignorance. Too many excuses and inconsistencies. No vaccine. No routine isolation or demonstration that HIV is necessary and sufficient to cause illness. Too much political and moral grandstanding. |
04-09-2003, 11:55 AM | #58 | |
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Patrick Kinloch-de Loës et al, 1995. A Controlled Trial of Zidovudine in Primary Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection. New England Journa of Medicine 333:408-413. |
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04-09-2003, 12:58 PM | #59 |
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This just in: mosquito bites do not cause itching. People were itching anyway, and the government needed to come up with an explanation to keep them happy. All the research was funded by pesticide companies.
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04-09-2003, 01:14 PM | #60 | ||
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The sensitivity and specificity of any medical test varies with the pre-test probabilities of the condition under study existing within the test-population, but the qualities of the test are an important factor, too. The predictive values (and the proportion of positive and negative evaluations that can be expected) depend upon the prevalence of a disease within a population. For given values of sensitivity and specificity, a patient with a positive test is more likely to truly have the disease if the patient belongs to a population with a high prevalence of the disease. The predictive values with HIV EIA in combination with the Western blot are extrodinarily high even in low-risk populations, because, even in this group, the specificity and sensitivity of these tests is high (much greater than 99% for the former). Of course, a positive test obtained from a member of a high-risk population has even greater specificity. Quote:
Rick |
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