August Spies

Despite what Payne likes to say, Cuba is relatively well off. Better off than many of its neighbors. OTOH North Korea is doing horribly compared to all its neighbors. I woudl think korea should fall first... of course Cuba's regime is very tied to the castro cult of personality, so it is hard to tell what will happen after his death.

Autonemesis

Maybe there should be a communist nation to arise first, before one can fall? The nations named in this thread so far all have state-capitalist economies. State-capitalism doesn't seem to last long, unless you have nukes and don't try to get in a spending war with the West. I say China and N. Korea will be around the longest. Cuba will finish its decomposition when Castro dies or sanctions are lifted, whichever occurs first.

Mecha_Dude

I'm with Kind Bud on the fact that none of those are actually communist states. The same thing could be done "Which Capitalist state will fall first?" and list so-called "Capitalist countries" like the US

We'll just get into more useless arguements by people slushing around in old propaganda. (this applies to BOTH sides of the debate, not just the so-called "Capitalists" and the so-called "Communists). Let's stop bitching about the past and learn from it.

Loren Pechtel

I don't think NK wants war. What they want is two things: Money to prop up their system and reunification with them in charge.

The problem is that if they don't get these things they might very well resort to force to get them.

Nataraja

Castro has become less extreme in his old age and hopefully the person he hands it off to will be more open to modern ideas of peace and prosperity. North Korea is probably going to cling like one of those ticks that you need surgery to remove for a good half-century or so before it collapses. China is a very old nation and its identity may very well remain intact for several more centuries, so I think it's pretty well out. I'm unsure of Cuba's fate but I doubt Korea will retain what's left of its stability much longer. In the case of China, I have hope that the government will realize how convenient it is to just let people figure it out for themselves and just supervise infrastructure. With the rise of capitalism in China I think their government's main problem will be with containing the scum that is bred out of it. America, I'm afraid, is likely to continue along its present path and will doubtless put itself hopelessly in deficit. America is going to lose a lot of its power and influence in coming decades, I'm afraid. Germany may very well gain quite a bit of power in the European Union. It's quite likely that the main powers, with the exception of a declining US, will get along fairly well with each other and hopefully the EU will work to bring new members into its union once it has grown strong. I'm not sure what's going to happen. I think that South Africa will develop a greater sense of unity over time and become a power unto itself. Russia is likely to slowly develop into a relatively benign power in Eurasia and have a largely cultural influence. Australia will do what Australia has always done. As for this continent, Canada is likely to become the dominate power and Mexico will stay pretty much the same. I think Brazil will be the dominant force in Europe.

99Percent

echidna

Swear and fart a lot ? I don't think that was the question. I hope this isn't part of an essay you were planning to submit to anyone, is it ?

Nataraja

Excuse me, I meant to say that Brazil would be the dominant force in South America.
I wouldn't put much faith in those predictions, though, they're mostly shots in the dark. Hey, I had nothing better to do

Morgan

Cuba - Despite the overriding majority sentiment on this thread, I fail to see the failure in Cuba that you all see. It has amoung the best education and health services in the world (bar Finland).

North Korea - I'll accept these guys are pretty crazy, but they're more of a military dictatorship (though, if you asked the average American, that's how they'd define the idea of communism).

China - The only thing I really know about China is their suppression of the religion Falun Gong. They're not communist either, really, and it's a pretty nasty country anyway (forceable abortion of any couple who decide to have a second child).

I don't see any of the above countries as true communisms. Cuba comes the closest, but even that falls short. I don't believe that communism can work in the world's current mindset (accumulation, accumulation, accumulation!). The best we can hope for is true communism (which, despite what they tell you, is not a bad thing) in a couple of centuries, when the capitalist economy collapses (which it will, most probably, when oil and other natural resources run out).

Nataraja

Excuse me, I'll admit that China is by no means a paradise but I can't let you base that on their means of population management. Even with these controls in place the population of China will continue to rise for several more years before it stabilizes. Their primary concern is to keep their country reasonably stable. If their laws had no teeth they would be ignored. The Chinese government isn't stupid even if some of them are bastards. I'm in favor of abortion, by the way.

I agree with you on Cuba, though. They aren't likely to collapse and they certainly aren't communist in any real sense of the word.

I'm in favor of anarcho-capitalism, myself...