Friar Bellows

I thought this might be a fun exercise.

What are your thoughts on the likelihood that (and the extent to which) the following touted future technologies will come to fruition?

1. Nanotechnology - i.e. medical nanobots, self-replicators, devitrification, universal fabricators, etc.

2. Artificial Intelligence - at least to the level of human beings, preferably beyond, whatever that means.

3. "Immortal Androids" - by which I mean, the ability to live essentially forever by constantly replacing those parts of our bodies which are "breaking down", specifically with artificial or robotic parts that are better, stronger, longer lasting.

4. Interstellar Travel - the ability for humans to travel to the nearest stars within their lifetimes.

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My thoughts:

1. Nanotech: Yes, but a much more restricted form. I think there will be massive problems with precision, heat generation and cost. Some of the more outlandish ideas such as reviving dead people and creating universal fabricators will never happen.

2. AI: No, never.

3. "Android": Nowhere near to the extent described above. Many but not all body parts will be able to be replaced, human lifetimes will be extended by maybe 50 to 100 years, but that's about all.

4. Interstellar Travel: No, never.

OK, OK, my glass is half-empty.

Feather

1: Nanotechnology. I think this will be extremely limited. It will be a while before we can make "artificial DNA" type machines.

2: AI. I have doubts we'll ever be able to create nonbiological machines with the same "intelligence" of human beings. People often limit human intelligence to simply rote rehearsal of learned things (such as the ability to build/create new technology, calculation, and so forth). The "creative/intuitive" aspect of human intelligence is not well understood at the physiological level, and creating an "artificial" program to mimick such behaviour might be impossible.

3: "Immortal Androids" I believe to be unlikely. Extreme longevity may not be unfeasible. But my understanding is that the reason we age is because of screwups in cell replication. Your body replaces itself every few years, and cells can divide (and some die) every 20 minutes. That's a lot of error to correct for. Mundane cyborgs I think are likely within the next 50-75 years. "The Bionic man" already exists practically (there are prostheses that can be controlled by linking hydrolic/electric motors to nerves).

4: Interstellar travel. Perhaps a couple of centuries from now. The "warp drive" of Star Trek is entirely possible (it's just a matter of realizing the correct localized stress-energy configuration). But not currently. Certainly interstellar travel is possible--even within the next few human lifetimes--via Generation Ships.

Tom Sawyer

1) I think that there will be a lot of uses for nanotech and it will be one of the areas with the biggest breakthroughs in the next century. It won't be a cure-all for everything, as some have suggested it can be, but will give a lot of advances, especially in the medical and environmental fields.

2) We'll be able to make machines that simulate life better and better, but no AI.

3) Not to the point of immortality, but I can see 150 year lifespans becoming common (not in our lifetimes, though)

4) Hopefully within the next several million years we'll either figure this out or find a way to keep the sun from exploding. I don't see it any time soon, though.

Corwin

1) We will have Drexlerian assemblers within 20 years. If you don't believe me, you aren't paying attention. We already have a fair number of the tools we need to build them. (Molecular circuitry, basic quantum computers, etc. Check out Lucent and Bell labs, as well as IBM and HP.)

2) Full AI will take a while, mostly because there isn't much reason to do it. PARTIAL AI is much more useful, and already exists to an extent. However, full AI is possible, (it's just another emergant phenomenon) and so it will be done at some point. (Humans just can't leave that sort of thing alone... if it can be done it will be by someone.)

3) This is already being done. Dick Cheney has one. (Titanium heart valve.) The level at which we're currently doing this is fairly primitive (heart valves, hip replacements, etc) compared to what can eventually be done with the right tools... (fully functional cybernetic limbs, artifical respirocites, etc.) and once we have those tools the rest becomes fairly easy. Remember that the human body is nothing more than an extremely complex machine. All machines can be upgraded given time, effort and resources. (Machines which 'can't be upgraded' actually can be upgraded, it's just not considered to be worth the cost and effort.)

4) There's gotta be SOME way to do it... and some interesting work is being done in this area. I'm sure we'll figure it out eventually.

NialScorva

Will happen, but we probably won't see it. I think the majority of applications will be found in fields that aren't immediately explanable to the man on the street. More likely we'll see things that are "based on nanotech" rather than being nanotech.

I don't think it'll be long before we see this. There are already projects that have generated <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2001/artificial_intelligence/1537842.stm" target="_blank">child-like intelligences</a>. It's merely a matter of scale and time after this.

Already well under way. The first two pretty much cover this.

Not promising at all, and with the public's lack of interest in anything that doesn't produce immediate and obvious returns, I don't see it happening outside of a single lifetime.

tronvillain

Nanotechnology: I too think that the applications nanotech are likely to be far more limited than some of its proponents claim, and I think universal assemblers especially unlikely. While it's not what I base my opinion on, Mike Wong's <a href="http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Myths/Nanotech.html" target="_blank">The Nanotechnology Myth</a> is an interesting read.

Artificial Intelligence: A definite possibility, given the rate at which the power of computers is increasing. We know intelligence is possible, and barring some unknown phenomenon, the only obstacle to AI is human ingenuity. Can we create a program that results in intelligence? I think so, though we may end up having to simply mimic the human brain or "evolve" the program rather than actually designing it.

Immortal Androids: I think immortal organics are far more likely than immortal androids, at least for the forseeable future. This might be achieved through genetic engineering, but for those already born there is always gene therapy the use of cloned replacement organs and tissues, with the possibility of some degree of nanotech as well.

Interstellar Travel: Perhaps in the distant future, given certain breakthroughs in cryogenics, or the construction of immense generation ships or planteoids. Otherwise, we will probably be limited to sending articial intelligences, perhaps digitized humans if such a thing is feasible. There is of course the options of simply sending frozen embryos or the information and materials necessary to construct (as in James P. Hogan's Voyage to Yesteryear) embryos to be grown and raised after arrival at or creation of an appropriate environment.

[ September 20, 2002: Message edited by: tronvillain ]</p>

Enigma

1) I think that nanotechnology will develop to a point where it will be able to solve problems worldwide (Pollution, famine, disease, etc.), but in so doing will likely create new problems (Gray Goo Problem, other potentially embarrassing ways to end our existance)

2) The main problem lies in getting programs to spontaneously reprogram themselves in reaction to stimuli (Activities, user inputs, etc.) Should such be developed, Human level AI will simply become a matter of scale and scope.

3) I do not think that one could live essentially forever using this method. Lifespans may very well be expanded twofold, tenfold, or even hundredfold, eventually the energy and material constraints would lead to cessation of existance for that person.

4) This theoretically currently exists now. All that is required is that you increase the speed of your spacecraft very close to the speed of light and relativity could potentially make a 4 year journey according to everyone on Earth, simply be 10-15 minutes for you. Whether such travel can be developed to occur so that the trip wont be (in traveling to distant stars) several million years for the people on Earth, would be dependant upon the underlying physics.

elwoodblues

Nanotech: Yes. It's already started, really. Progress will only accelerate through the next few decades.

AI: If the current strategies and technologies are all we ever have available to us, probably not. But that's a fool's bet. There are fundamental barriers to be overcome, not just speed and capacity. It won't be easy. But I think we'll see some amazing stuff in our lifetime.

Immortal Androids: A quirky pick. Well, I can see in principle replacing just about anything except the brain. Something like that is far, far beyond current knowledge, much less current technology. I can't see how it'd come to pass in our lifetime, but I wouldn't bet against it, either.

Interstellar Travel: Tough to predict. Using current theories and current knowledge, almost certainly not. But just one fundamental theoretical breakthrough (on par with discovering quantum behavior last century) has the potential to make this problem trivial.

Marduk

1. Nanotechnology - Yes, in the distant (100 years or so) future, (if there is a distant future, which I seriously doubt)

2. Artificial Intelligence - This I doubt, unless an organic type of computer is developed, but then will it be a computer or a living sentient being?


3. "Immortal Androids" -
No, you will still have the problem of the brain aging, you can't download yourself into a new brain.

4. Interstellar Travel - I doubt it, Warp drive is probably not possible and generational spaceships would be too expensive

Bible Humper

Nanotechnology: I agree with tronvillain, nanotech has become the "magic wand" of science fiction writers Nanotech will certainly be a dramatic boon to humanity, but not as dramatic as some dream, IMHO.

Artifical Intelligence: I have yet to hear an argument for vitalism that doesn't include the idea of a magical soul, so I see no reason why artificial intelligences won't eventually be much more intelligent and creative than human minds.

Immortal Androids: I think that a better word for what you were describing is "clinical immortality". This will be done in due time, though only the rich will be able to partake of it.

Interstellar Travel: What are the outer limits of transhumanism? I think that we will certainly be able to achieve clinical immortality eventually, so it will certainly be possible to do this (almost regardless of how long it takes).