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Old 01-16-2009, 09:40 PM   #31
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To be fair, Richard makes that point himself on Page 13:
For example, as Porter and Thiessen have both observed, it’s inherently unlikely that any Christian author would include anything embarrassing in a written account of his beliefs, since he could choose to include or omit whatever he wanted. In contrast, it’s inherently likely that anything a Christian author included in his account, he did so for a deliberate reason, to accomplish something he wanted to accomplish, since that’s how all authors behave, especially those with a specific aim of persuasion or communication of approved views. Therefore, already the prior probability that a seemingly embarrassing detail in a Christian text is in there because it is true is low, whereas the prior probability that it is in there for a specific reason regardless of its truth is high.
And in his Section 3 "Formal Logic: The Basic Syllogism", he talks about the conclusions in terms of percentages based on the abundancy of background evidence. However, his conclusions in Examples 2 and 3 of "Syllogistic Representation of Common Historicity Criteria" simply don't flow logically from the premises, regardless of percentages. And -- to Toto -- these are supposed to be the criteria used by scholars, not apologists. These lapses in logic are curious, and contrasts with his other work which I enjoy reading very much.
The analysis of Carrier represented in that paragraph I think clears up some of the confusion (maybe), and I am not buying it. Every author, that is everyone in the world who writes, writes for a deliberate reason. Does it follow that everybody's writing has no regard to the truth? Of course not, because the truth is typically much more persuasive than an outright lie, and so the true is the best baseline for any effective sell. It seems a bad idea to start with the assumption that Christian authors are enormously creative storytellers who can effectively lie about anything.
The vast majority of narrative stories are fiction. There is nothing wrong at all with writing fiction. Do you think that all fictional stories are evil lies. Why should we start with the assumption that the authors of the gospels intended to write history and not fiction when we have lots of evidence of fiction and no evidence of history?
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Old 01-16-2009, 09:57 PM   #32
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The analysis of Carrier represented in that paragraph I think clears up some of the confusion (maybe), and I am not buying it. Every author, that is everyone in the world who writes, writes for a deliberate reason. Does it follow that everybody's writing has no regard to the truth? Of course not, because the truth is typically much more persuasive than an outright lie, and so the true is the best baseline for any effective sell. It seems a bad idea to start with the assumption that Christian authors are enormously creative storytellers who can effectively lie about anything.
The vast majority of narrative stories are fiction. There is nothing wrong at all with writing fiction. Do you think that all fictional stories are evil lies. Why should we start with the assumption that the authors of the gospels intended to write history and not fiction when we have lots of evidence of fiction and no evidence of history?
Yes, the vast majority of narratives are entirely fiction, but only a small fraction of narratives intended to be passed off as accurate are entirely fiction; such stories are almost always based on truth because truth tends to be more believable. I think the gospels are in large part fiction based on authentic accounts. If you are someone who believes that the gospels started off as intended fiction, like a novel, then I dismiss that theory for completely lacking any sort of evidence, which is a completely different red herring debate best for another thread, I am sure.
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Old 01-16-2009, 09:57 PM   #33
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There is no argument in the passage that "everybody's writing has no regard for the truth."

And again, if you start with the assumption that Christian authors are not liars or cannot create stories, then the criterion of embarrassment would still be irrelevant.

If you believe from the start that the crucifixion did occur, the criterion of embarrassment is irrelevant, you already believe the story.

And even if you do not believe the crucifixion story from the start, the criterion of embarrassment cannot resolve the matter, it is irrelevant.
aa, I may be an asshole saying this, but I have decided that I won't gain much knowledge from arguing with you, so I will generally not respond to what you are saying. I am just giving you a heads up in case you don't want to waste your time with me or whatever.
This is just a discussion, just put forward your position and state clearly why you hold such a position.

But, in any event, I have gained a lot by reading your posts.

You seem to think that the criterion of embarrassment has some value in resolving texts where the veracity is unknown, I just think it is useless and illogical based on the fact that any texts that is actually fiction, unknown to the reader, but yet embarrassing, would be deemed true or non-fiction, if the criterion of embarrassment was applied.

I think you are brilliant.
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Old 01-16-2009, 09:58 PM   #34
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The analysis of Carrier represented in that paragraph I think clears up some of the confusion (maybe), and I am not buying it. Every author, that is everyone in the world who writes, writes for a deliberate reason. Does it follow that everybody's writing has no regard to the truth? Of course not, because the truth is typically much more persuasive than an outright lie, and so the true is the best baseline for any effective sell. It seems a bad idea to start with the assumption that Christian authors are enormously creative storytellers who can effectively lie about anything.
The vast majority of narrative stories are fiction. There is nothing wrong at all with writing fiction. Do you think that all fictional stories are evil lies. Why should we start with the assumption that the authors of the gospels intended to write history and not fiction when we have lots of evidence of fiction and no evidence of history?
Yes, the vast majority of narratives are entirely fiction, but only a small fraction of narratives intended to be passed off as accurate are entirely fiction; such stories are almost always based on truth because truth tends to be more believable. I think the gospels are in large part fiction based on authentic accounts. If you are someone who believes that the gospels started off as fiction intended to be read as fiction, like a novel, then I dismiss that theory for completely lacking any sort of evidence, which is a completely different red herring debate best for another thread, I am sure.
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:11 PM   #35
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aa, I may be an asshole saying this, but I have decided that I won't gain much knowledge from arguing with you, so I will generally not respond to what you are saying. I am just giving you a heads up in case you don't want to waste your time with me or whatever.
This is just a discussion, just put forward your position and state clearly why you hold such a position.

But, in any event, I have gained a lot by reading your posts.

You seem to think that the criterion of embarrassment has some value in resolving texts where the veracity is unknown, I just think it is useless and illogical based on the fact that any texts that is actually fiction, unknown to the reader, but yet embarrassing, would be deemed true or non-fiction, if the criterion of embarrassment was applied.

I think you are brilliant.
OK, you flatter me in the face of my condescension, so I yield. I believe that the criterion of embarrassment has value as part of a large set of standardized criteria and subjective personal judgment calls. It helps to make a case for likelihood, but it can be easily trumped if there is sufficient evidence that the text is completely dishonest, by originating in a much different time period than asserted, for example. If there is no evidence that the text is completely dishonest, that it contains plenty of bits of truth, that it originated in the proposed time and place, then we should settle on picking apart the honest from the dishonest portions. The criterion of embarrassment, now that I think about it, is used in my central argument that Jesus existed for his apocalyptic prophecy that miserably exceeded its deadline. The embarrassment is explicitly and implicitly attested in the later New Testament writings, and such a prophecy would be much less likely (though not impossible) to be entirely fictional given that it is so embarrassing.
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:41 PM   #36
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OK, you flatter me in the face of my condescension, so I yield. I believe that the criterion of embarrassment has value as part of a large set of standardized criteria and subjective personal judgment calls. It helps to make a case for likelihood, but it can be easily trumped if there is sufficient evidence that the text is completely dishonest, by originating in a much different time period than asserted, for example. If there is no evidence that the text is completely dishonest, that it contains plenty of bits of truth, that it originated in the proposed time and place, then we should settle on picking apart the honest from the dishonest portions. The criterion of embarrassment, now that I think about it, is used in my central argument that Jesus existed for his apocalyptic prophecy that miserably exceeded its deadline. The embarrassment is explicitly and implicitly attested in the later New Testament writings, and such a prophecy would be much less likely (though not impossible) to be entirely fictional given that it is so embarrassing.
But, you still have to explain how is it that you can determine from the start what is true or not in a text where the veracity is uncertain.

Can you name the plenty bits of truth in the NT with respect to Jesus?

And the so-called apocalyptic prophecy that exceeded its deadline may be resolved easily if it was the author himself who thought the prophecy would have been fulfilled during his lifetime, that is, an unknown doomsday author wrote a story about some Jesus whom he thought was coming back to earth sometime while he, the author, was alive.

Again, all you are doing is believing a story is true first and then using the criterion of embarrassment to confirm what you already believe.

You believe Jesus existed and did make some apocalyptic prophecy, the criterion of embarrassment is irrelevant, you already believe Jesus did.

I do not think you can point out a single case where the criterion of embarrassment has been used to show that an embarrassing story was fiction.
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Old 01-16-2009, 11:09 PM   #37
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OK, you flatter me in the face of my condescension, so I yield. I believe that the criterion of embarrassment has value as part of a large set of standardized criteria and subjective personal judgment calls. It helps to make a case for likelihood, but it can be easily trumped if there is sufficient evidence that the text is completely dishonest, by originating in a much different time period than asserted, for example. If there is no evidence that the text is completely dishonest, that it contains plenty of bits of truth, that it originated in the proposed time and place, then we should settle on picking apart the honest from the dishonest portions. The criterion of embarrassment, now that I think about it, is used in my central argument that Jesus existed for his apocalyptic prophecy that miserably exceeded its deadline. The embarrassment is explicitly and implicitly attested in the later New Testament writings, and such a prophecy would be much less likely (though not impossible) to be entirely fictional given that it is so embarrassing.
But, you still have to explain how is it that you can determine from the start what is true or not in a text where the veracity is uncertain.

Can you name the plenty bits of truth in the NT with respect to Jesus?

And the so-called apocalyptic prophecy that exceeded its deadline may be resolved easily if it was the author himself who thought the prophecy would have been fulfilled during his lifetime, that is, an unknown doomsday author wrote a story about some Jesus whom he thought was coming back to earth sometime while he, the author, was alive.

Again, all you are doing is believing a story is true first and then using the criterion of embarrassment to confirm what you already believe.

You believe Jesus existed and did make some apocalyptic prophecy, the criterion of embarrassment is irrelevant, you already believe Jesus did.

I do not think you can point out a single case where the criterion of embarrassment has been used to show that an embarrassing story was fiction.
The thing about the failed prophecy was actually the primary argument that brought me from the myth-Jesus belief to the historical-Jesus belief. The presence of embarrassing elements can draw evidence toward accuracy, and the lack of embarrassing elements where we otherwise may expect them can draw evidence toward fiction. I project that theory from my intuition, but I don't have solid evidence for it because only a few materials exist that are presented as accurate are known to be primarily fiction, and I haven't studied them.
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Old 01-17-2009, 01:44 AM   #38
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I still don't see a logical lapse in Example 3. Perhaps the problem you have with that example is that the argument is starker than it is usually presented, with no saving nuance. This may be part of the intellectual exercise.
Let's start with this, then. Here is Example 3 again:

Major Premise 1: Cybeleans would not invent anything that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the castration of Attis.

Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is true.
Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The castration of Attis was not invented.
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the castration of Attis is true.


Does Minor Premise 2 follow from Conclusion 1?
I'm not following your objection. You do realize that Carrier labels this an obviously false conclusion? He has modeled it on the argument that Christians do make about allegedly embarrassing parts of the gospels.

Are you trying to say that the difference between the wording of Conclusion 1 and Minot Premise2 is significant?
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Old 01-17-2009, 03:03 AM   #39
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Let's start with this, then. Here is Example 3 again:

Major Premise 1: Cybeleans would not invent anything that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the castration of Attis.

Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is true.
Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The castration of Attis was not invented.
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the castration of Attis is true.


Does Minor Premise 2 follow from Conclusion 1?
I'm not following your objection. You do realize that Carrier labels this an obviously false conclusion? He has modeled it on the argument that Christians do make about allegedly embarrassing parts of the gospels.
No, Toto, he most definitely has not. He is framing the criteria as ones that scholars use. Go to page 6 in the PDF (marked Page 1), under "2. Examining Historicity Criteria". Further on, he gives this example as a "syllogistic Representation of Common Historicity Criteria". Read his paper -- he appears to be claiming to present the criteria used by scholars.

Do scholars frame the Criterion of Embarrassment in terms of Richard's syllogism? No, not that I've seen.

If some Christian uses it in this form, then Richard is doing a service by refuting him/her. If scholars are not using it in this form, then Richard has created a strawman. I think Richard has created a strawman.

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Are you trying to say that the difference between the wording of Conclusion 1 and Minot Premise2 is significant?
Most definitely. You said earlier that the "argument is starker than it is usually presented", but the problem is the opposite: the terms are so vague that we need to define what he is talking about in the first place. This is just sloppy thinking AFAICS. For example, castrations are invented???

Earlier, I gave what I thought was a clearer idea of how the syllogism should be expressed. Let's start with Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the castration of Attis

What does it even mean to talk about "a castration being invented"? Surely he means "the story of the castration was/wasn't invented"? If that is so, then we should reword the first part:

Major Premise 1: Cybeleans would not invent anything that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the story of the castration of Attis.


Let's go to the second part:

Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is true.
Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The castration of Attis was not invented.
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the castration of Attis is true.


Now, is it a "report" or a "story"? A report suggests observation. A story suggests something handed down. Note that a story could be passed down with the belief that it is true, so if that is the case, Major Premise 2 would need to be modified. But I'll leave that aside for the moment.

Consider Minor Premise 2. As stated, it is either wrong or unclear. You don't invent castrations. Let's clarify it (ignoring the problems with Major Premise 2 for the moment):

Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The story of the castration of Attis was not invented.

Conclusion 2 would then be:
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the story of the castration of Attis is true

That takes us back to Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is true. But we are talking about stories, not reports. So, it should be expressed as:

Major Premise 2: A story is either invented or it is true.

But, is that an exhaustive list? No. As I said earlier, stories can be believed to be true. Stories can be modified, they can evolve. So Major Premise 2 would need to be updated before we can get to Conclusion 2.

In the end, a lot of other things would need to be weighed before we can get to Conclusion 2 -- and if you look at the Wiki article I linked to earlier, that's exactly what is said. To repeat here:
This criterion is rarely used by itself, and is typically one of a number of criteria, such as the criterion of discontinuity and the criterion of multiple attestation along with the historical method.
Is this adequately represented in Richard's syllogism, IYO?

I tell you what. Show me any scholar who declares that "a report is either invented or it is true" when using the Criterion of Embarrassment. Or show me one that frames the Criterion of Embarrassment in anyway similar to Richard's proposed syllogism.

And please stop claiming that his syllogisms are taken from arguments by hypothetical "Christians" or "apologists". Read his paper. They aren't. It is a "syllogistic Representation of Common Historicity Criteria." He is supposedly representing how scholars currently use these criteria.

That first section is just sloppy thinking AFAICS. This is a shame, since it detracts from his Bayes Theorem discussion that he later presents in his paper.
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Old 01-17-2009, 05:24 AM   #40
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I apologise for harping on this, but I'm sorry Richard, the more I look at it, the sillier it becomes. Let me correct his argument. This is Richard's original one:
Major Premise 1: Cybeleans would not invent anything that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the castration of Attis.

Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is true.
Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The castration of Attis was not invented.
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the castration of Attis is true.
Here is how I think it should be expressed:
Major Premise 1: Cybeleans would not invent a report that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans did not invent the report of the castration of Attis.

Major Premise 2: A report is either invented or it is believed to be true.
Minor Premise 2 (= Conclusion 1): The report of the castration of Attis was not invented by the Cybeleans.
Conclusion 2: Therefore, the report of the castration of Attis was believed to be true by the Cybeleans.
Can I reexpress my problems in a similar way

Major Premise 1: Cybeleans in late classical Italy would not invent a report that would embarrass them.
Minor Premise 1: The castration of Attis would embarrass Cybeleans in late classical Italy.
Conclusion 1: Therefore, Cybeleans in late classical Italy did not invent the report of the castration of Attis.
The true part of the argument is that Cybeleans in late classical Italy did not invent the castration of Attis, something deeply alien to the mores of that place and time. The cult of Attis in late classical Italy is the importation into that place and time of something alien (which is attractive and/or repulsive by virtue of its alienness. )

The false part of the argument IMO is the implication that the embarrassment of the castration of Attis in late classical Italy provides a problem for the origin of this myth in pre-Hellenistic Phrygia.

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