Freethought & Rationalism Archive

PhilosopherJay · 08-14-2012, 09:45 AM

Hi All,

There was a post by Mountanman on Schrödinger's cat in another thread regarding Richard Carrier's application to Bayes' Theorem.

I thought it might be interesting to talk about it on its own. I think it is a pretty good analogy for the situation now with the Mythological/Historical Jesus debate.

Schrödinger's cat was apparently originally a thought experiment to show that probabilities in the microscopic world could be seen as affecting the ordinary everyday world and could not be treated simply as mathematical probabilities. See Schrödinger's cat in Wikipedia.

Taking over the language of the thought experiment, it seems to the independent observer, Jesus is now in a Superstate something composed of two states: mythological (made up) and historical (real).

The question is this -- Is the evidence we have today sufficient that when properly understood, we can determine with certainty/scientific clarity from which state Jesus arose?

If the answer is that we do not have enough evidence, then what more evidence do we need to make a positive determination?

Warmly,

Jay Raskin

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainman

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanya

a. I do believe that there is something seriously wrong, with seeking to apply Bayes' theorem to an analysis of the origins of Christianity.

IMO the idea is to apply Bayes theorem to ancient history, as an ancient historian, not as a "Biblical Historian". The origins of Christianity need to be studied OUTSIDE of the field of Biblical History, where they have been entombed for over 1600 years.

Here is a brief discussion on Bayes Theorem that uses a graphical model and is related to medical testing (which you seem to have experience in) and therefore may assist in understanding what Carrier is attempting to do.

In the field of New Testament studies students, teachers and researchers can do what they please within certain hegemonic guidelines, and I would also deny that Bayes Theorem is applicable in such a field. However, and this is the main point IMO that bears repeating, the field of NT studies is of necessity a SUBSET of the field of ancient history.

A researcher in the field of NT studies is perhaps quite incapable of asking the question are the gospels fiction books. Such questions cannot be asked from within the box of NT studies or "Biblical Studies". Such questions can only be asked from outside the box of these fields. Outside the box of these fields - including these fields as subsets of itself - is the field of ancient history. Such questions may be asked outside the square, and answered.

I see Carrier as following this path.

Similar comments have already been made.

Consider Schrodinger's Cat Jesus.

Schrodinger's Cat Jesus

Jesus is in an ossuary box which investigators open and look into.

In some experiments some investigators see an HISTORICAL Jesus.

In other experiments other investigators see a MYTHICAL Jesus.

In yet other experiments other investigators see a FICTIONAL Jesus.

In further experiments others dont see anything at all.

In one experiment an investigator had a mystical experience.

What then is Schrodinger's Cat Jesus?

Is Jesus a QUANTUM BEING capable of changing states?

And can we sell this technology to a world market?

Quote:

In brief, if we cannot establish the conditional priors, we cannot employ Bayes' theorem.....

Some conditional priors can be established in the negative sense.

Can people walk on water?
Can people ascend through cloudbanks?
Can people lie through their teeth?

etc

Do not yet discount Bayes theorem for a certain amount of assistance in clarifying the hypotheses that are capable of being made with respect to the thousands and thousands of evidence items to be taken into account when reviewing the quest for the historical (or otherwise) Jesus with respect to the field of ancient history.

outhouse · 08-14-2012, 11:44 AM

Quote:

The question is this -- Is the evidence we have today sufficient that when properly understood, we can determine with certainty/scientific clarity from which state Jesus arose?

well this will come down to preception and opinion, but YES we can.

Its obvious there is a historical core and its obvious that the ancient roman authors wrote in mythology and were adding to this mortal man so that he would comptete with other mortal emporers also clamied to be "son of god"

jesus a Galilean jew who was martyred after his death due to a temple incident, in front of possibly 400,000 witnesses who all would have been opposed to the roman infection in the temple and corrupt jewish government [Saducess] gave him a shooting star status which the mythology grew from and built enough of a legend for the romans to steal and manipulate the theology to meet the needs of god fearers in the roman empire.

outhouse · 08-14-2012, 11:48 AM

Quote:

If the answer is that we do not have enough evidence

again perception from who? a minority group with the majority not consisting of scholars?

or modern scholarships?

Quote:

then what more evidence do we need to make a positive determination?

it really wouldnt matter now would it? the opposing skeptical group would liklely not accept it as they have refused and in the majority of the time, perverted what historical evidence we have now

Toto · 08-14-2012, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outhouse

...

Its obvious there is a historical core and its obvious that the ancient roman authors wrote in mythology and were adding to this mortal man so that he would comptete with other mortal emporers also clamied to be "son of god"

It's not obvious. It's so obscure that even historicists don't think they can know much of anything about the historical Jesus.

Quote:

jesus a Galilean jew who was martyred after his death due to a temple incident, in front of possibly 400,000 witnesses who all would have been opposed to the roman infection in the temple and corrupt jewish government [Saducess] gave him a shooting star status which the mythology grew from and built enough of a legend for the romans to steal and manipulate the theology to meet the needs of god fearers in the roman empire.

When you can locate one of those 400,000 witnesses, get back to us.

Otherwise, stop repeating stuff that you can't even footnote.

Toto · 08-14-2012, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilosopherJay

...

I thought it might be interesting to talk about it on its own. I think it is a pretty good analogy for the situation now with the Mythological/Historical Jesus debate.

...

Taking over the language of the thought experiment, it seems to the independent observer, Jesus is now in a Superstate something composed of two states: mythological (made up) and historical (real).

...

I think this misses the point of Schroedinger's cat. The cat was hypothetical, but in the thought experiment it clearly existed. You couldn't tell if it was alive or dead until you observed it - but there was always the possibility of observing the cat and finding out.

There is no event that will allow us to know for sure if Jesus is dead or a spiritual entity that never lived. You can't design that thought experiment.

GenesisNemesis · 08-14-2012, 01:12 PM

Ah, speculation regarding quantum mechanics! Fun stuff.

PhilosopherJay · 08-14-2012, 05:30 PM

Hi Toto,

I can imagine some pretty strong evidence that might be found.

Let us say we found a manuscript of the Acts of Pilate which was traceable to the first half of the first century and did describe events similar to the gospel events. That would be quite strong evidence for an historical Jesus.

On the other hand, if we found this epistle from Josephus, datable to the late First century:

Quote:

To my dear friend and gifted young playwright Marcus Bardus,

I have read your play about a God who takes human form and tries to save the Jews prior to the war. I thought it did a good job of satirizing the Jews who wanted the war with the Romans and wouldn't listen to reason.
I did not like the ending where Pontius Pilate adopts him as his only son. Instead I think he should be crucified and then, miraculously brought back to life which proves he really was a god. Also, instead of naming him Larry the Christ, I think a more traditional name like Joshua would be better.

Sincerely, your greatest admirer, Josephus the Jewish Historian

I think that would seal the deal for most people in the opposite direction.

Warmly,

Jay Raskin

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toto

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilosopherJay

...

I thought it might be interesting to talk about it on its own. I think it is a pretty good analogy for the situation now with the Mythological/Historical Jesus debate.

...

Taking over the language of the thought experiment, it seems to the independent observer, Jesus is now in a Superstate something composed of two states: mythological (made up) and historical (real).

...

I think this misses the point of Schroedinger's cat. The cat was hypothetical, but in the thought experiment it clearly existed. You couldn't tell if it was alive or dead until you observed it - but there was always the possibility of observing the cat and finding out.

There is no event that will allow us to know for sure if Jesus is dead or a spiritual entity that never lived. You can't design that thought experiment.

anethema · 08-14-2012, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenesisNemesis

Ah, speculation regarding quantum mechanics! Fun stuff.

tell me exacly when and where accredited scholars have conducted "thought experiments" about any other ancient person.

anethema · 08-14-2012, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anethema

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenesisNemesis

Ah, speculation regarding quantum mechanics! Fun stuff.

tell me exacly when and where accredited scholars have conducted "thought experiments" about any other ancient person.

outside of plato and atlantis of course.

Toto · 08-14-2012, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilosopherJay

Hi Toto,

I can imagine some pretty strong evidence that might be found.

...

Yes, but I can't imagine a way of forcing that evidence to exist.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

08-14-2012, 01:12 PM	#6
GenesisNemesis Contributor Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: A pale blue oblate spheroid. Posts: 20,351	Ah, speculation regarding quantum mechanics! Fun stuff.

Freethought & Rationalism Archive

The archives are read only.