Originally Posted by Astreja

If I had been raised in a practicing Christian household instead of an apathetic one, the story would likely be very different: My early-years indoctrination may have included a fear of Hell and the Wager would appear to be more reasonable. But then another question arises: Is it possible to do a rational risk assessment when dealing with non-rational fears?

Originally Posted by rhutchin

One can have self-respect and be wrong. Hope your gut feeling is right for your sake.

Originally Posted by Wayne Delia

The reference to "The Blind Man and the Elephant," a delightful poem by John Godfrey Saxe, is often used by theists to reconcile apparent contradictions in the Bible, by appealing to a reasonable (but incorrect) conclusion based on the only available evidence. What is supremely ironic (and amusing) is that theists miss the explicit moral of the poem: that all theistic observations are pretty much bullshit ("Though each was partly in the right / And all were in the wrong!"). It is worth reading and examining the entire poem.

It was six men of Indostan
To learning much inclined,
Who went to see the Elephant
(Though all of them were blind),
That each by observation
Might satisfy his mind

The First approached the Elephant,
And happening to fall
Against his broad and sturdy side,
At once began to bawl:
“God bless me! but the Elephant
Is very like a wall!�

The Second, feeling of the tusk,
Cried, “Ho! what have we here
So very round and smooth and sharp?
To me ’tis mighty clear
This wonder of an Elephant
Is very like a spear!�

The Third approached the animal,
And happening to take
The squirming trunk within his hands,
Thus boldly up and spake:
“I see,� quoth he, “the Elephant
Is very like a snake!�

The Fourth reached out an eager hand,
And felt about the knee.
“What most this wondrous beast is like
Is mighty plain,� quoth he;
“ ‘Tis clear enough the Elephant
Is very like a tree!�

The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear,
Said: “E’en the blindest man
Can tell what this resembles most;
Deny the fact who can
This marvel of an Elephant
Is very like a fan!�

The Sixth no sooner had begun
About the beast to grope,
Than, seizing on the swinging tail
That fell within his scope,
“I see,� quoth he, “the Elephant
Is very like a rope!�

And so these men of Indostan
Disputed loud and long,
Each in his own opinion
Exceeding stiff and strong,
Though each was partly in the right,
And all were in the wrong!

Moral:

So oft in theologic wars,
The disputants, I ween,
Rail on in utter ignorance
Of what each other mean,
And prate about an Elephant
Not one of them has seen!

Originally Posted by rhutchin

The failure of the blind men was in insisting that they had complete information and not partial information. Had the blind men put all their information together, they would have been closer to the truth but may have lacked enough information to arrive at the truth. Many discover Biblical contradictions by using the blind man methodology. They consider partial information and advance a position that is partly right but nonetheless wrong. So it is in theologic wars where one considers this passage and another that passage and they never put the passages together to discover the truth.

Originally Posted by Sauron

This is the core problem with rhutchin's argument: a lack of a rational basis for claiming uncertainty.

Uncertainty doesn't exist merely because someone claims it does. If it were that easy, then I could barge into my next management meeting, wave my hand and say, "By George, my fertile imagination has dreamed up this never-before-contemplated hypothetical threat. Now, foolish mortal, you either have to rule this threat out 100%, or take steps to deal with this new uncertainty I've imagined."

According to rhutchin's broken logic, people actually would have to account for this uncertainty, even though it was totally manufactured as a product of my bored imagination only five minutes earlier.

Or, imagine a 4-year-old child who claims that the boogieman is in the closet. According to rhutchin, uncertainty now exists as to whether or not there is a boogeyman in the closet. Absurd. Uncertainty about boogeymen does not exist merely because a 4 year old child had a bad dream.

There is more to this puzzle than merely asserting a claim that uncertainty exists. That's the part that rhutchin is trying to avoid -- he cannot give us any basis to treat his claim of uncertainty differently than the two examples above.

Originally Posted by rhutchin

You describe exactly what the textbooks tell people to do. One identifies all the risks that they think could delay a project and take action to reduce those risks. Hare-brained ideas about risks may be dismissed quickly but one is not dismissed for having hare-brained fears.

When a parent has a child who believes that the bogeyman is in the closet, that parent will act on those fears, go to the closet with the child, open the door and rummage through the closet so the child can see that there is no bogerman. The parent might then sit beside the child and read or talk to the child until the child is comfortable.

The basis I have for the claim of eternal torment is that information provided in the Bible. One may consider this information in any manner desired.

Originally Posted by JPD

An individual experience might not be infinite but it is not possible to come to the end of a series of possible beliefs with all the outcomes they might entail. Since your analysis relies upon the actuality of some form of continuation after physical death - for which there is zero evidence - it is your analysis that is left - desperately - wanting.

Originally Posted by rhutchin

Again, it is a question of the definition of evidence. I maintain that the information provided in the Bible is evidence. You don't. Your conclusion is consistent with your definition of evidence as is mine.

Originally Posted by rhutchin

If a person can prove that P(G)=0, then the Wager does not apply. Without a proof, the Wager provides a rational methodology to decide how to deal with the possibility of eternal torment..