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Old 02-09-2006, 12:27 PM   #1501
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Originally Posted by Alf
One problem is that your definitions are suspect. Time is a property of our universe so if we are to experience time in an afterlife it follows that the afterlife must be spent some place WITHIN some universe. By universe I mean "everything that exist" and it is therefore necessarily only one universe and that means it must be within the same universe as we are in right now - there can be only one and I am not talking about the highlander.
Our particular universe is bounded temporally. It is not clear whether existence itself is bounded. You bring up a good point, though. Directional time exists within our universe as a property of this universe. So, by definition, afterlife can't be eternal.

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Secondly, afterlife is assumed to be eternal. This must therefore presume that the universe is eternal. If "eternal" means "all possible moments in time" then that does not neceesarliy imply an infinite eternity. For example if 20 billion years from now the universe cased to exist and collapsed then afterlife would last at most 20 billion years and not forever even though it is "eternity" in the sense that it is "for all valid future moments in time".
Regardless, we can establish that the afterlife cannot be eternal, because it is bounded by death.

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Third. you state that P(G)*infinity must necessarily be infinity. This is only true if P(G) > 0. If P(G) == 0 the value might be anything, 0, any non-zero value or even infinity. If P(G) is a constant equal to 0 the value would be 0. If P(G) > 0 then the value must necesarily be infinity.
Agreed here as well. However, here it is assumed that we don't know the probability of God's existence. P(G) is a set of all real numbers between 0 and 1 including 0 and 1.

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Fourth, and this is the most serious problem, you divide by infinity in your equations. That immediatley nullify whatever results you achieve. I can prove anything I want by dividing by infinity, I can prove P and I can prove not-P using sucha method. It is simply not valid math.
Dividing by infinity is not a problem. Divide a constant by infinity and it reduces to 0 (you have to do this with limits). You're right, though. Dividing infinity by infinity leaves an undefined operation which could be defined as the relative value of the afterlife compared to life. This is definable mainly by personal preference, and thus still is problematic for the Wager. In order to draw conclusions from the risk analysis, one still needs to know the probability of God.


My take on the afterlife is, if you've spent your entire life suffering for God, death is an eternal end to that suffering simply via nihilation of your existence. If you've spent your life finding joy in life, death is an end to that pleasure, and thus the proposition of death is a future devoid of that, which is a tormentuous concept at the moment of death, but really doesn't matter because you no longer exist after that last moment anyways.

So, in a really warped way, sure, it works, but the truth is, a sinner's hell is the exact same thing as a righteous man's heaven.
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Old 02-09-2006, 06:50 PM   #1502
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This is the core problem with rhutchin's argument: a lack of a rational basis for claiming uncertainty.

Uncertainty doesn't exist merely because someone claims it does. If it were that easy, then I could barge into my next management meeting, wave my hand and say, "By George, my fertile imagination has dreamed up this never-before-contemplated hypothetical threat. Now, foolish mortal, you either have to rule this threat out 100%, or take steps to deal with this new uncertainty I've imagined."

According to rhutchin's broken logic, people actually would have to account for this uncertainty, even though it was totally manufactured as a product of my bored imagination only five minutes earlier.

Or, imagine a 4-year-old child who claims that the boogieman is in the closet. According to rhutchin, uncertainty now exists as to whether or not there is a boogeyman in the closet. Absurd. Uncertainty about boogeymen does not exist merely because a 4 year old child had a bad dream.

There is more to this puzzle than merely asserting a claim that uncertainty exists. That's the part that rhutchin is trying to avoid -- he cannot give us any basis to treat his claim of uncertainty differently than the two examples above.


You describe exactly what the textbooks tell people to do. One identifies all the risks that they think could delay a project and take action to reduce those risks.
Absolutely incorrect.

rhutchin, I do project management for a living. I have been doing it for over 15 years. This is not how project management is accomplished. Anyone who acted according to my illustrative example above would be fired.

If I walked into my Wednesday morning release meeting and told the Release Manager that the project could suffer a delay as a result of Pizza Aliens invading from Galaxy 9, and that he had better do something about it, I don't know what would happen first: my ass hitting the pavement, or the men in white coats whisking me away. Uncertainty does not exist merely because someone has a random brain misfire and imagines that a particular threat might exist.

To put this bluntly: you don't know what the fuck you are talking about. Stop making this stuff up as you go, merely because you dread facing the question placed before you.

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When a parent has a child who believes that the bogeyman is in the closet, that parent will act on those fears, go to the closet with the child, open the door and rummage through the closet so the child can see that there is no bogerman.
Again you are incorrect. The parent is not "acting upon the child's fears". The parent is acting to calm an unreasonable fear that has no basis in fact. The motivation is not the same. The parent does not investigate the closet becuase he/she believes the child actually might be correct. So my statement stands:

Absurd. Uncertainty about boogeymen does not exist merely because a 4 year old child had a bad dream.

NO uncertainty here. None.

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The basis I have for the claim of eternal torment is that information provided in the Bible. One may consider this information in any manner desired.
However, uncertainty does not exist merely because someone scratches "there is an invisible tiger" on the back of a napkin. So the basis for your information is no more reliable than my chicken-scratching on the back of a napkin.
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Old 02-09-2006, 06:52 PM   #1503
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Originally Posted by rhutchin
Again, it is a question of the definition of evidence. I maintain that the information provided in the Bible is evidence. You don't.
Sadly wrong. You cannot simply create a new definition of evidence out of the thin air, merely because your bible cannot meet the ordinary definition. Changing the rules to allow yourself to win does not work.

By your standards, chicken-scratching on the back of a napkin is evidence. Therefore, you should be worried about the invisible tiger - after all, I wrote about it on the back of a napkin. Since it's now written down, it must be "evidence" - at least according to you.
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Old 02-09-2006, 07:04 PM   #1504
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Originally Posted by rhutchin
From http://dictionary.law.com/

evidence
n. every type of proof legally presented at trial (allowed by the judge) which is intended to convince the judge and/or jury of alleged facts material to the case. It can include oral testimony of witnesses, including experts on technical matters, documents, public records, objects, photographs and depositions (testimony under oath taken before trial). It also includes so-called "circumstantial evidence" which is intended to create belief by showing surrounding circumstances which logically lead to a conclusion of fact. Comments and arguments by the attorneys, statements by the judge and answers to questions which the judge has ruled objectionable are not evidence. Charts, maps and models which are used to demonstrate or explain matters are not evidence themselves, but testimony based upon such items and marks on such material may be evidence. Evidence must survive objections of opposing attorneys that it is irrelevant, immaterial or violates rules against "hearsay" (statements by a party not in court), and/or other technicalities.
++++

This is my definition of evidence. What is yours?

I would say that your bible fails to survive the test of evidence, due to the following items:

Evidence must survive objections of opposing attorneys that it is irrelevant, immaterial or violates rules against "hearsay" (statements by a party not in court), and/or other technicalities.

Notice here that

1. If the item offered doesn't survive challenges and scrutiny, then it isn't allowed to be entered as evidence;

2. This list of objections is almost identical to the list of reasons skeptics give as to why they reject the bible or particular claims: questions of relevance, materiality, and hearsay;

3. Plus, notice the term "other technicalities". If someone tried to claim in a court of law that they saw dancing leprechauns or an invisible tiger, do you think that testimony might be excluded from evidence based upon "technicalities"? Yeah, I think you do know that it would be. Those same kind of technicalities also prevent the bible claims from being considered evidence.

As I told you earlier: introducing the courtroom frame of reference into this discussion hurts your argument, as opposed to helping it. Too late though; the damage to your position is already done.
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:02 AM   #1505
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rhutchin
From http://dictionary.law.com/

evidence
n. every type of proof legally presented at trial (allowed by the judge) which is intended to convince the judge and/or jury of alleged facts material to the case. It can include oral testimony of witnesses, including experts on technical matters, documents, public records, objects, photographs and depositions (testimony under oath taken before trial). It also includes so-called "circumstantial evidence" which is intended to create belief by showing surrounding circumstances which logically lead to a conclusion of fact. Comments and arguments by the attorneys, statements by the judge and answers to questions which the judge has ruled objectionable are not evidence. Charts, maps and models which are used to demonstrate or explain matters are not evidence themselves, but testimony based upon such items and marks on such material may be evidence. Evidence must survive objections of opposing attorneys that it is irrelevant, immaterial or violates rules against "hearsay" (statements by a party not in court), and/or other technicalities.
++++

This is my definition of evidence. What is yours?

Sauron
I would say that your bible fails to survive the test of evidence, due to the following items:

Evidence must survive objections of opposing attorneys that it is irrelevant, immaterial or violates rules against "hearsay" (statements by a party not in court), and/or other technicalities.

Notice here that

1. If the item offered doesn't survive challenges and scrutiny, then it isn't allowed to be entered as evidence;

2. This list of objections is almost identical to the list of reasons skeptics give as to why they reject the bible or particular claims: questions of relevance, materiality, and hearsay;

3. Plus, notice the term "other technicalities". If someone tried to claim in a court of law that they saw dancing leprechauns or an invisible tiger, do you think that testimony might be excluded from evidence based upon "technicalities"? Yeah, I think you do know that it would be. Those same kind of technicalities also prevent the bible claims from being considered evidence.

As I told you earlier: introducing the courtroom frame of reference into this discussion hurts your argument, as opposed to helping it. Too late though; the damage to your position is already done.
Since you have concluded that the information contained in the Bible would not survive a challenge, you must have gone through the legal requirements to develop your argument for a challenge. Are you willing to provide that argument?

We know from the above definition that evidence includes--

- oral testimony of witnesses, including experts on technical matters, documents, public records, objects, photographs and depositions (testimony under oath taken before trial).
- "circumstantial evidence" which is intended to create belief by showing surrounding circumstances which logically lead to a conclusion of fact.

To be thrown out, the information must survive objections of opposing attorneys that it is:

- irrelevant,
- immaterial or
- violates rules against "hearsay" (statements by a party not in court),
- and/or other technicalities.

Since the case before us directly concerns that which the Bible says, the material from the Bible is relevant and material (else they would be no case being argued).

You might argue that the evidence is hearsay (the witnesses report what Jesus said) but there are exceptions that would allow for a witness to express the words Jesus spoke. Hear is the Hearsay Rule from dictionary.law.com--

Hearsay Rule
n. the basic rule that testimony or documents which quote persons not in court are not admissible. Because the person who supposedly knew the facts is not in court to state his/her exact words, the trier of fact cannot judge the demeanor and credibility of the alleged first-hand witness, and the other party's lawyer cannot cross-examine (ask questions of) him or her. However, as significant as the hearsay rule itself are the exceptions to the rule which allow hearsay testimony such as: a) a statement by the opposing party in the lawsuit which is inconsistent with what he/she has said in court (called an "admission against interest"); b) business entries made in the regular course of business, when a qualified witness can identify the records and tell how they were kept; c) official government records which can be shown to be properly kept; d) a writing about an event made close to the time it occurred, which may be used during trial to refresh a witness's memory about the event; e) a "learned treatise" which means historical works, scientific books, published art works, maps and charts; f) judgments in other cases; g) a spontaneous excited or startled utterance ("oh, God, the bus hit the little girl"); h) contemporaneous statement which explains the meaning of conduct if the conduct was ambiguous; i) a statement which explains a person's state of mind at the time of an event; j) a statement which explains a person's future intentions ("I plan to….") if that person's state of mind is in question; k) prior testimony, such as in deposition (taken under oath outside of court), or at a hearing, if the witness is not available (including being dead); l) a declaration by the opposing party in the lawsuit which was contrary to his/her best interest if the party is not available at trial (this differs from an admission against interest, which is admissible in trial if it differs from testimony at trial); m) a dying declaration by a person believing he/she is dying; n) a statement made about one's mental set, feeling, pain or health, if the person is not available-most often applied if the declarant is dead ("my back hurts horribly," and then dies); o) a statement about one's own will when the person is not available; p) other exceptions based on a judge's discretion that the hearsay testimony in the circumstances must be reliable.

Your last resort is to technicalities which you don't explain but merely assert to exist. Some explanation is needed to justify a ruling by the judge that the evidence is inadmissable. The judge will not through out evidence just because the opposing attorney doesn't like it or doesn't believe it.
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:06 AM   #1506
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rhutchin
Again, it is a question of the definition of evidence. I maintain that the information provided in the Bible is evidence. You don't.

Sauron
Sadly wrong. You cannot simply create a new definition of evidence out of the thin air, merely because your bible cannot meet the ordinary definition. Changing the rules to allow yourself to win does not work.

By your standards, chicken-scratching on the back of a napkin is evidence. Therefore, you should be worried about the invisible tiger - after all, I wrote about it on the back of a napkin. Since it's now written down, it must be "evidence" - at least according to you.
As common sense tells us, we must establish a rule before we can change it. I am advocating that we nail down a rule about evidence that we can all agree to.

I will not object to you entering the napkin as evidence and allow you to testify that you are the one who wrote the information on the napkin. I am willing to let the jury sort out what to do with that evidence.
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:11 AM   #1507
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Originally Posted by rhutchin
As common sense tells us, we must establish a rule before we can change it. I am advocating that we nail down a rule about evidence that we can all agree to.

I will not object to you entering the napkin as evidence and allow you to testify that you are the one who wrote the information on the napkin. I am willing to let the jury sort out what to do with that evidence.
So what evidence are you going to bring to bear?

What evidence do you have that your God actually exists?

What evidence do you actually have that non-belief in your God could result in eternal torment?

What evidence do you have that eternal torment actually exists?
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:29 AM   #1508
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Sauron
This is the core problem with rhutchin's argument: a lack of a rational basis for claiming uncertainty.

Uncertainty doesn't exist merely because someone claims it does. If it were that easy, then I could barge into my next management meeting, wave my hand and say, "By George, my fertile imagination has dreamed up this never-before-contemplated hypothetical threat. Now, foolish mortal, you either have to rule this threat out 100%, or take steps to deal with this new uncertainty I've imagined."

According to rhutchin's broken logic, people actually would have to account for this uncertainty, even though it was totally manufactured as a product of my bored imagination only five minutes earlier.

Or, imagine a 4-year-old child who claims that the boogieman is in the closet. According to rhutchin, uncertainty now exists as to whether or not there is a boogeyman in the closet. Absurd. Uncertainty about boogeymen does not exist merely because a 4 year old child had a bad dream.

There is more to this puzzle than merely asserting a claim that uncertainty exists. That's the part that rhutchin is trying to avoid -- he cannot give us any basis to treat his claim of uncertainty differently than the two examples above.

rhutchin
You describe exactly what the textbooks tell people to do. One identifies all the risks that they think could delay a project and take action to reduce those risks.

Sauron
Absolutely incorrect.

rhutchin, I do project management for a living. I have been doing it for over 15 years. This is not how project management is accomplished. Anyone who acted according to my illustrative example above would be fired.

If I walked into my Wednesday morning release meeting and told the Release Manager that the project could suffer a delay as a result of Pizza Aliens invading from Galaxy 9, and that he had better do something about it, I don't know what would happen first: my ass hitting the pavement, or the men in white coats whisking me away. Uncertainty does not exist merely because someone has a random brain misfire and imagines that a particular threat might exist.

To put this bluntly: you don't know what...you are talking about. Stop making this stuff up as you go, merely because you dread facing the question placed before you.
Extreme examples do not negate the methodology a person would follow in developing a risk management plan as part of the overall Project Management Plan. In developing a risk management plan, the normal procedure is to allow everyone to voice their concerns. To do otherwise would be poor risk management. There can be a lot of blue sky type thinking here. When I have done risk management, the group identifies the basic risks pretty quickly. Extreme situations, like you describe, can be easily dealt with and dismissed. Given your comments, my guess is that you do not prepare a risk management plan in your project management plan. If you worked for the government, that would explain it. Do you?

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rhutchin
When a parent has a child who believes that the bogeyman is in the closet, that parent will act on those fears, go to the closet with the child, open the door and rummage through the closet so the child can see that there is no bogerman.

Sauron
Again you are incorrect. The parent is not "acting upon the child's fears". The parent is acting to calm an unreasonable fear that has no basis in fact. The motivation is not the same. The parent does not investigate the closet because he/she believes the child actually might be correct. So my statement stands:

Absurd. Uncertainty about boogeymen does not exist merely because a 4 year old child had a bad dream.

NO uncertainty here. None.
That’s what I said, stated differently. There is uncertainty in the mind of the child and the parent addresses that uncertainty. In like manner, the Wager addresses uncertainty in the mind of an individual about eternal torment and proposes a methodology to deal with that uncertainty.

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rhutchin
The basis I have for the claim of eternal torment is that information provided in the Bible. One may consider this information in any manner desired.

Sauron
However, uncertainty does not exist merely because someone scratches "there is an invisible tiger" on the back of a napkin. So the basis for your information is no more reliable than my chicken-scratching on the back of a napkin.
Almost anything can give rise to uncertainty. Incomplete information is a source of uncertainty. Unverified rumors can create uncertainty. Even your chicken scratching on a napkin can create uncertainty in the minds of some people. I have heard of people who can be indecisive for less reason that that.
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:36 AM   #1509
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Originally Posted by Dlx2
Dividing by infinity is not a problem. Divide a constant by infinity and it reduces to 0 (you have to do this with limits). You're right, though. Dividing infinity by infinity leaves an undefined operation which could be defined as the relative value of the afterlife compared to life. This is definable mainly by personal preference, and thus still is problematic for the Wager. In order to draw conclusions from the risk analysis, one still needs to know the probability of God.
You cannot go from a*infinity = b*infinity implies a = b.

You cannot go from a / infinity = b / infinity implies a = b either.

Alf
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Old 02-10-2006, 04:36 AM   #1510
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Originally Posted by rhutchin
Extreme examples do not negate the methodology a person would follow in developing a risk management plan as part of the overall Project Management Plan. In developing a risk management plan, the normal procedure is to allow everyone to voice their concerns. To do otherwise would be poor risk management. There can be a lot of blue sky type thinking here. When I have done risk management, the group identifies the basic risks pretty quickly. Extreme situations, like you describe, can be easily dealt with and dismissed. Given your comments, my guess is that you do not prepare a risk management plan in your project management plan. If you worked for the government, that would explain it. Do you?
Can I just say something.

A ten page gap fill scenario exemplorises necessitational power concepts to realise prognostic drivers in a bid to undertake encapsulation strategy theorisation.

Interestingly Bud Twatter of Cradlebirch Inspirations Inc forewent his usual dispensation analysis to embue fragmentation party interests in a bid that will see a literal throwback to drawers bulging with underspend.

Do you see?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rhutchin
That’s what I said, stated differently. There is uncertainty in the mind of the child and the parent addresses that uncertainty. In like manner, the Wager addresses uncertainty in the mind of an individual about eternal torment and proposes a methodology to deal with that uncertainty.
Which stares at its own feet before falling into a ditch.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rhutchin
Almost anything can give rise to uncertainty. Incomplete information is a source of uncertainty. Unverified rumors can create uncertainty. Even your chicken scratching on a napkin can create uncertainty in the minds of some people. I have heard of people who can be indecisive for less reason that that.
I find a beaver staring at the sun through a telescope provides all the information I require to take out the right life insurance policy.
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