Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Mageth · 12-29-2005, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhutchin

One does not have to believe the Bible or believe that the claims made in the Bible are true. One need only know that the Bible exists and that the claims have been made.

Which is my case. I know the Bible exists and know that the claims have been made. However, I do not believe the Bible or believe that the claims made in the Bible are true, specifically in this case the rewards/punishments for believing/not believing the Bible.

Therefore, the "Wager" as you're presenting it is meaningless to me. It's useless as an argument for belief unless one already believes!

Quote:

Let’s say that the idea that a person is personally accountable to a living entity called God is the most preposterous idea that you have ever heard. You still have two choices, Believe in God or Not believe in God. If you believe in God and you are proved correct in originally thinking that the idea of God is preposterous, then the loss to you is not significant. If you do not believe in God and you are proved wrong, the loss to you is immeasurable. As a consequence, it would be in your interest to avoid an immeasurable loss, so you would rationally choose to believe God.

You've simply restated Pascal's (flawed) Wager.

Quote:

Let’s use an example to illustrate the point. Let’s say that you are offered a lottery ticket. You are told that if you do not buy the lottery ticket, you will put into eternal torment. If you buy the ticket, your chances are 1 in a billion of escaping eternal torment. Would you buy the lottery ticket? Of course you would because you have nothing to lose and much to be gained.

Now, if you are told that buying a lottery ticket would make it certain that you would escape eternal torment, would you buy the lottery ticket?

You've simply presented a bad analogy for Pascal's (flawed) Wager.

rhutchin · 12-29-2005, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Johnny Skeptic
Consider the following hypothetical scenario: Two powerful beings arrive on earth. Each one claims to be the creator of the universe. One being claims that he is good, and the other being claim that he is evil. They tell you that they are going to have a battle to decide which one will rule the universe. They begin their battle, and after a few days it appears to you that the evil being has a very slight edge over the good being. At that point the beings pause and insist that before they continue their battle you pick which one of them you will follow. Which being would you choose to follow?

rhutchin
The rational action is to worship the evil being. If he wins, you win. If he loses, you fall on the mercy of the good being who, being good, would understand the position in which you had been placed and might show mercy. You have leveraged your position to the greatest extent.

Johnny Skeptic
Your problems with that approach are as follows:

Let's assume that hundreds of millions of other people are observing the battle and that 50.0000001% of them disagree with you that the evil being has a slight edge, and choose the good being because they believe that he has a very slight edge. Please also consider the possibility that 90% of the people choose the good being because they believe that he has a very slight edge.

Please also consider the possibility that there is a general tendency for people with higher IQ's to assume the evil being has a slight edge, and that there is a general tendency for people with lower IQ's to choose the good being. Please also consider that women will generally believe that the good being has a slight edge, and that men will generally believe that the evil being has a slight edge.

In Kosmin and Lachman's book that is titled 'One Nation Under God,' the authors cite documented research that shows that in the U.S., a substantially higher percentage of women are Christians than men, and that other major factors that influence religious beliefs are geography, family, race, ethnicity, and age.

It seems to me that if the Bible is true, you have put yourself at great risk because it is not actually the God of the Bible that you follow, but your own self-interest, in other words, that you do not follow him because he is good and perfect, but because you believe that he will give you a comfortable eternal life. In other words, you worship eternal comfort regardless of who provides it.

It does not matter what other people think because it is your life on the line. That makes it your decision and you have to decide. If you do what 90% of the people do and the 90% are wrong, you take it on the chin, so it doesn’t matter who else believes or who they are.

You raise an interesting issue about making a decision based on self-interest. I do not recall anything in the Bible that speaks to this issue. The Bible condemns those who outright reject God. The Bible condemns those who profess to believe in God but in works deny Him. The Bible says nothing about the person who rejects belief in God but then obeys God. I guess that is because a person who obeys God must inherently believe in God despite their protestations to not believe. Consequently, to obey God because of sheer self-interest when one does not believe in God seems to be as profitable as obeying God because one believes in God.

rhutchin · 12-29-2005, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mageth

You've simply presented a bad analogy for Pascal's (flawed) Wager.

OK. So, answer the question. Would you buy the lottery ticket?

rhutchin · 12-29-2005, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mageth

That is plainly false.

That is also false.

I have to laugh at this....

Opinions are free and require no justification. You can have all you want.

Mageth · 12-29-2005, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhutchin

OK. So, answer the question. Would you buy the lottery ticket?

I'm not sure what significance answering the bad analogy has, but...

I have no reason to believe that the "tale of the lottery ticket" is true.

So why would I waste my money, even $1?

Mageth · 12-29-2005, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhutchin

Opinions are free and require no justification. You can have all you want.

Back at ya.

Even so, your statements are still false, and your Bible-based system is still a prime example of "might makes right".

Pascal's wager attempts to frighten one into belief.

Your lottery analogy attempts to frighten one into buying a ticket.

It's simply slightly more sophisticated fire-and-brimstone preaching.

enemigo · 12-29-2005, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhutchin

One does not have to believe the Bible or believe that the claims made in the Bible are true. One need only know that the Bible exists and that the claims have been made.

Let’s say that the idea that a person is personally accountable to a living entity called God is the most preposterous idea that you have ever heard. You still have two choices, Believe in God or Not believe in God. If you believe in God and you are proved correct in originally thinking that the idea of God is preposterous, then the loss to you is not significant. If you do not believe in God and you are proved wrong, the loss to you is immeasurable. As a consequence, it would be in your interest to avoid an immeasurable loss, so you would rationally choose to believe God.

So, are you saying that I should also believe in the truth of the Koran, just in case it's claims are true? Further, if anyone claims that if I don't believe in whatever it is that they want me to believe or else I face eternal torment, then you're saying that the rational thing to do would be to believe every such claim that has been made?

Mageth · 12-29-2005, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enemigo

So, are you saying that I should also believe in the truth of the Koran, just in case it's claims are true? Further, if anyone claims that if I don't believe in whatever it is that they want me to believe or else I face eternal torment, then you're saying that the rational thing to do would be to believe every such claim that has been made?

If he says "no", note that he seems to think one should believe someone that tries to sell you a lottery ticket to escape eternal torment.

Johnny Skeptic · 12-29-2005, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhutchin

Opinions are free and require no justification. You can have all you want.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mageth

Back at ya.

Even so, your statements are still false, and your Bible-based system is still a prime example of "might makes right".

Pascal's wager attempts to frighten one into belief.

Your lottery analogy attempts to frighten one into buying a ticket.

It's simply slightly more sophisticated fire-and-brimstone preaching.

Actually, Mageth, I believe that rhutchin's arguments do have some merit, but that ultimately they fail. If I believed that an evil being was the most powerful being in the universe, and that he would send me to hell if I did not accept him, I would accept, and you probably would too. In my opinion, rhutchin's main problem is that if it came down to a contest between two beings for supremacy of the universe, and rhutchin had to make a choice based upon the hypothetical scenarios that I discussed in one of my previous posts, he would be at a complete loss to make a choice that he could be reasonably certain would benefit him. In other words, while rhutchin's arguments might have some credibility if the only inhabited planet in the universe was earth, his arguments do not have any credibility at all under a number of other possible scenarios, and in order for his arguments to be valid, they have to apply to all possible scenarios.

Mageth · 12-29-2005, 10:58 AM

BTW, rhutchin, I can guarantee that you will escape eternal torment if you send me $10,000. If you don't, it's eternal hellfire for you! PM me for my name and address so you can mail me a check.

Note that I might cut a deal with you. $10 a month for the next 20 years, perhaps?

Note that my offer might be true. Therefore, you'd better not risk refusing it! Even $10,000 is a small price to pay in exchange for escaping eternal torment!

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12-29-2005, 10:58 AM	#80
Mageth Contributor Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Deep in the heart of mother-lovin' Texas Posts: 29,689	BTW, rhutchin, I can guarantee that you will escape eternal torment if you send me $10,000. If you don't, it's eternal hellfire for you! PM me for my name and address so you can mail me a check. Note that I might cut a deal with you. $10 a month for the next 20 years, perhaps? Note that my offer might be true. Therefore, you'd better not risk refusing it! Even $10,000 is a small price to pay in exchange for escaping eternal torment!

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