yummyfur

Thanks Farrell for the link. here is a fixed version as it didn't initially work for me.

http://www.infidels.org/library/mode.../indef/4d.html

I've read some of Carriers articles, but not this one, and he nicely sums up many of the problems. Also I agree with Carrier that Ezekial is basically a propagandist for his captors, and a Jewish apologist at the same time, in some ways similar to Josephus. He wants to show that the Jews and their god are right behind their captors. My guess is he(they) actually wrote the Tyre "prophecy" before the attack, and I also think he(they) wrote the "prophecy" about Jerusalem before the attack, not that any idiot could have written similar "prophecies" at the time.

His Tyre prophecy was a win/ win situation even if he got it wrong (and who could of guessed that Nebi wouldn't win), it showed the Jews god was supporting Nebi. If he got it right he could also claim "look my god is powerfull maybe you should rebuild his Temple", if not he could say, "god really wanted to help, but since he has no Temple or sacrifices, he can't help you as much as he could, maybe you can rebuild the Temple, like the one I describe, which will have the ruler of the whole world as it's rebuilder(nudge nudge, wink wink)". He also was probably trying to influence Babylonians to crush Tyre (who had said that Jewish captives should be sold as slaves by Tyrians to the Greeks) like they did Jerusalem, because I bet alot of his fellow Jews were a bit steamed at his writings about Jerusalem, if he didn't say the same things about other places he would look like he just had it in for the Jerusalem faction.

I liked your analogy about the Iraq war, and I could say that I predicted it in early 2002(no need to wait till 2003), though not by divine means, as to many, it was really clear that Bush would take this route after his "axis of evil" State of the union address in January 2002, though even before this I thought it was likely, after this it became pretty certain.

Jack the Bodiless

I've written an ErrancyWiki article on the failure of the "Tyre prophecy" (and yes, Farrell, I used my real name). I intend to address and refute as many apologetic interpretations as I can find. Can anyone think of ones that I missed?

...Assuming they're not so outlandish that they don't deserve the effort of a response. Probably this guy falls into that category:
So, God was not wrong, except that he was wrong.

Incidentally, I'm not sure where Carrier's figure of 70,000 comes from (for the modern population of Tyre). Googling indicates a figure of about 30,000 for Tyre and 38,000 for Sidon (though "Tyre" is also the name of a region of soutwestern Lebanon that includes the town, and this region has a population in excess of 100,000 people). But I haven't found a recent census or similar source.

yummyfur

http://www.geohive.com/cd/link.php?xml=lb&xsl=neo1

This seems to say the administrative unit of Sour(Tyre) has 130,000 people, this seem to be only the area surronding Tyre, as Saida(Sidon) and Jezzine are listed as adminstrative units as well, the data is from 1996, with city data from 1994, lists Tyre as 80,000, which makes sense. The 70,00 Carrier cites is from a 1991 estimated population.

All Lebanese figures are estimates, as no census has been taken in well over 50 years. Official Lebanese govt. estimates, usually don't include Palestinian refugees or immigrant workers, whereas independent(like the UN) agencies estimates do, this is probably part of the reason for the different numbers you see.

Saida and Sour populations are/were often in huge flux because of attacks by guerrillas and Israeli forces.

Jack the Bodiless

Thanks for the link. However, clicking on the "Map" link on that page reveals that the Sour administrative region stretches right down to the Israeli border and from the Mediterranean about hafway across the southern end of Lebanon (and, similarly, the Saida administrative region is much larger than the town of Sidon). Tyre itself is visible as a rather small peninsula about one-third of the way down the coast from the nothern border of the Sour region.

Of course, it's still possible that much of the population in those regions is concentrated in those towns: but I'd rather not just assume that (especially if the count might include big refugee camps in the countryside).

I'm still hoping to find estimates for actual towns, not "administrative units".

David Mooney

see this link:

http://www.mongabay.com/igapo/Lebanon.htm

David Mooney

By the way, whatever happened to Richbee? I haven't seen him for a few days.

Julian

Probably bedridden after a few heavy posts fell on him...

yummyfur

The second set of numbers(80,000) from 1994(scroll down) are for the city only. Realize that Lebanon is quite small. So the northern border of Sour district, is the Litani river, a mere 4 miles from the center of Sour, the western border is only 8 miles wide and the southern border about 12 miles from the center of Sour. The southern 4 miles of the Sour district is the "ladder of Tyre" not a terrain suited for any amount of people to live, not to mention the border issues with Israel. Sour is about the only city of any size in this district, the next biggest city is Naqoura near the Isareli border which has about 24,000 people in a 4.5 mile radius(quite a large area), which is from recent UNFIL numbers for this region.

Also I found that the 1996 numbers for the whole districts are actually 1996 Ministry of Social Affairs numbers, they only include permanent residents, so the large number of Palistinian refugees who live in this area are not counted. For example the al-Rashidiyeh refugee camp has over 20,000 inhabitants, but these would not be included in the 1996 district numbers. Outside of the camps surrounding Tyre, like Rashideyeh and El Bass(10,000), Tyre itself has 43,000 Palestinian refugees, who live there instead of the camps(so add in your 30,000 permanent residents and you get about 73,000)
http://www.adr.org.lb/ENG/libansud_constat1_an.htm


The US state department has these numbers for 1994
http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/300...nd-leb-94.html

Jack the Bodiless

...Thanks! (And, yes, I didn't scroll down far enough... d'oh!)

Given the unreliability of the data, I've decided to wrap up with this:
That should be sufficient, as all I have to do is point out that Tyre is neither a "bare rock" nor a "fishing village".

dongiovanni1976x

"The legates responded that there was a temple of Hercules outside the city sitting in the area which they called Palaetyros*: there the king would be able to offer due sacrifice to the god."

*Professor Heckel (U. of Calgary Canada) states that this is Old Tyre, on the mainland. Even though Josephus tells us (Against Apion 1:113) that it was Hiram who joined the temple on an adjacent island to the main rocky fortress. However this was the temple of Jupiter so Dr. Heckel's interpretation of Curtius still holds water. I also found another mention by Curtius of "Old Tyre": "Large quantities of rock were available, furnished by old Tyre, while timber to construct rafts and siege towers was hauled from Mt Libanus" 4.2.18