Steven Carr

Jesus came from Nazareth, not Jerusalem.

If Jesus came from a really small place, doesn’t that reduce the prior odds of his existing?

Isn’t that something to be factored into any Bayesian calculation of his historicity?

Suppose we are told that Sally has very strong views of female equality.

Rank the following statements in order of likelihood.

Sally is a bank teller.

Sally is a bank teller and a feminist.

Sally is a bank teller and a feminist and was born in New York.

Sally is a bank teller and a feminist and was born in Red Bank, New Jersey.

outhouse

not at all.

just the opposite


its evidence by criterion of embarrassment, to place their deity from what amounts to a gabage hole roman work camp to help build Sepphoris.

later roman authors state no good can come from there while worshipping the man that did.


we dont know where he came from and has ZERO historicity pre 30 years of age

ApostateAbe

The Bayesian calculations must be done with the evidence and alternative explanations on the table. Is it more likely that:

(1) Sally is a bank teller, a feminist and was born in Red Bank, New Jersey, or
(2) there is a false myth that Sally is a bank teller, a feminist and was born in Red Bank, New Jersey?

One way or the other, you have those extra details, and you can't get rid of the details by calling them false myth. If they are false myth, then they are still details.

andrewcriddle

As Abe said.

In order to use Bayes theorem in this way you have to compare the probabilities a/ that if Jesus is a historical figure it would be claimed that he came from Nazareth and b/ that if Jesus is a fictitious figure it would be claimed that he came from Nazareth.

It is only an interesting exercise if these probabilities are clearly substantially different.

Andrew Criddle

PhilosopherJay

Hi Steven Carr
I am not sure if size can be equated with fictional/non fiction.

Superman grew up in Smallville, a small, fictional town. He moved to Metropolis, a large fictional town.

Peter Parker/Spiderman grew up in New York City where I grew up.

The chances of Superman or Spiderman being real are I think about equal.

D.C. comics tended to use fictional towns for the settings of their super-heroes, while Marvel tended to use historical cities for the settings of their super-heroes.

In myth we get both mythological and real places. Hades and the River Styx which separates the world of the living from the world of the dead are fictional places. Hercules was born in Thebes, a real town and his father lived on Mount Olympus, a real place.

We do have this 2nd Century statue of Hercules which was discovered in Israel last year. We could say that there is more evidence of Hercules being in Israel than Jesus.

gurugeorge

Fixed that for you.

show_no_mercy

There is a negligible probability difference between the conditional probabilities. Think about it this way:

What is the probability that someone is historical given that they're from a real town?

What is the probability that someone is historical given that they're from a fake town?

What is the probability that someone is mythical given that they're from a real town?

What is the probability that someone is mythical given that they're from a fake town?

Can someone be historical but be misattributed to a fake town? Sure. Can someone be mythical but be attributed to a real town? Happens in comics all the time. So the real town/fake town isn't good enough probability weight to make it a compelling argument. A good number of logical fallacies are actually Bayesian evidence in favor of the "fallacious" reasoning for the same reasons.

Well, to be pedantic, this has nothing to do with Bayes Theorem. It's just the prototypical example of the conjunction fallacy. It has more to do with Occam's Razor (the simplest sentence is the most probable).

MrMacSon

Exactly.

There is no evidence what was later and continues to be known as Nazareth was called Nazareth ~ early AD.

outhouse

according to Carrier, there is no reason to think the small village would have went through a name change.

we know it was named differently before witha different culture of people.

but within the israelites the name was almost positively the same

MrMacSon

What names have been used?