Historical science does not provide with any where near the amount of certainty we get from the hard sciences such as chemistry, metallurgy and biology (or their engineering offshoots).

Now I've read a lot of talk in this forum about history and what people think they "know" about it, particularly regarding Jesus and his existence. (With MANY appeals to authority put forth as arguments) A few here appear to be very skeptical to the point of pretty much accepting Doherty's mythicist position. And some others appear to be the opposite, putting the probability of his existence at almost 100%. (perhaps even 100%)

Given the nature of the historical sciences mentioned above, I'd like to set up a test that is perhaps more meaningful than just a percentage number grabbed out of the air. (with no consequences)

Suppose you had a million dollars in your saving account. Suppose thats all you had. (Okay maybe $500 or so in the checking, but nothing more) Now suppose you're asked to bet some amount of that million dollars on Jesus' existence. You could even bet against his existence. How much would you bet and which way would you bet?


[This message has been edited by madmax2976 (edited May 24, 2001).]

I'd bet $500,000.00 that there's a historical person that all the mythology was added to. But there would have to a contingency that the actual person could be very different from the mythical person portrayed in the NT.

Of course. I'm just talking mere existence here. Your bet is very close to mine. I think I'd go as much as $600,000, but I might want to think about it overnight.



[This message has been edited by madmax2976 (edited May 24, 2001).]

I'd bet it all and give all comers 10 to 1 odds.

I wouldn't bet anything. I'd take the money
and invest it in printing t-shirts. Two
kinds. One would say "Jesus really did
exist". The other would say "Jesus was a myth".
I'd sell the t-shirts for $15 each and
make a killing, since both sides would be
stocking up on them to try and win an
argument from authority....

Actually, I'd probably print more of the
pro Jesus ones since there are lots of
Christians who would care to make the point,
but few atheists who would give a damn....

:-)

"You mean, besides two chicks at the same time?"

Lance

Who decides who wins? And how? We have a time machine handy?

Personally, I like Kosh's idea.

Assuming we're meaning "physical existance" here versus bible myth, I'd probably go at least 50-50 (500,000) or maybe up to 750,000.

No more.

As someone suggested, the question really is what odds would induce you to wager. Based on what I've read (mostly prior to the debate), I'd need ten-to-one odds to bet there was no HJ. In other words, I consider it possible, but not probable.

On the other hand, I'd eagerly offer ten to one odds that the little crank, whoever he was, wasn't the son of God, resurrected, etc.

Okay I guess. But I find it extremely strange that anyone would consider any historical claim THAT certain. Historical evidence simply does not warrant such assurety. I question whether particular hard scientific evidences warrants such certainty. (Big bang?, black holes? Some aspects of evolution?)

If someone asked me if Abraham Lincoln wrote the Gettysburg address I wouldn't even think of betting my whole million to say nothing of 10 to 1 odds. If someone bet me whether or not close to 6 million Jews were killed in the Holocaust I might bet as much as 9 hundred thousand on it. If someone bet me whether Julius Ceasar was assassinated in the general manner commonly accepted, I don't think I'd bet much more than the 300,000 or so. (Historical details are even more questionable)

Now if someone bet me whether a man named Jesus healed sick people with a touch, cursed a fig tree, was born of a virgin, and rose from the dead, THEN I'd bet all the money and give 100 to 1 odds!

The bet is a sure thing. I'd be a very rich man.