Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Stabby- · 04-09-2002, 01:06 AM

Discovery Channel aired a program on super volcanoes. They hinted that one erupted nearly 70K years ago.

Does this fit in anyone's timelines of early human distribution?

The Genetic distribution would state that the earth was slowly colonized by humans in 40-30K years?

anyone heard of this before?

Stabby-------

butswana · 04-09-2002, 10:18 AM

I've heard of it. Seems like it caused such a global climate change that our ancestors numbers dropped to maybe as low as 1000. Spooky.

Jubal · 04-09-2002, 10:21 AM

I watched this.
This explains why humanity is not as diverse as some species, perhaps?

Jubal · 04-09-2002, 10:23 AM

On second thought, this would have effected other species as well.

Bunda · 04-09-2002, 02:39 PM

Obviously not as huge as the volcano proposed by the program you saw, but there are very old writings from Asia and Britain of more than a year of almost complete darkness. They thought it was some kind of supernatural influence or message. Turns out it was a huge volcano that blacked out a big part of those areas.

What a scary thing to live through. A long time of almost complete darkness, cold, horrible tidal waves, and loss of crops resulting in death. With all this, they had no idea what caused it. Literally being "left in the dark".

Stabby- · 04-09-2002, 10:11 PM

Swan-

Perhaps human "society" (even though societies would be a nomadic sort of thing) where more vulnerable to weather changes because of their early agricultural efforts? Seems like a bit of a stretch though.

Stabby----

Bill · 04-10-2002, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Stabby-:
<strong>Perhaps human "society" (even though societies would be a nomadic sort of thing) where more vulnerable to weather changes because of their early agricultural efforts? Seems like a bit of a stretch though. </strong>

Human society was more vulnerable to weather changes precisely because they were still in the "hunter/gatherer" phase of human existence and depended upon eating whatever they could find growing on the land around them.

If you check on the web, you can find <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/supervolcanoes_script.shtml" target="_blank">a transcript of the program in question</a>. Here are a few cogent excerpts:

Quote:

MICHAEL RAMPINO: We can see this kind of plot predicts that the Toba eruption was so large that the temperature change after Toba in degrees Celsius would have been about a 5 degree global temperature drop, very significant, very severe global cooling.

...

MICHAEL RAMPINO: Five degrees globally would translate into 15 degrees or so of summer cooling in the temperate to high latitudes. The effects on agriculture, on the growth of plants, on life in the oceans would be catastrophic.

NARRATOR: This global catastrophe would have continued for years, dramatically affecting life on Earth, but what impact did it have on humans? The answer may be buried not inside the ancient rocks, but deep within us all. Lynn Jorde and Henry Harpending are scientists specialising in human genetics. Since the early 1990s they have been studying mitochondrial DNA using the information to investigate mankind's past. ...

NARRATOR: This confirmed what other geneticists have noticed. Given the length of time humans have existed, there should be a wide range of genetic variation, yet DNA from people throughout the world is surprisingly similar. What could have caused this? The answer is a dramatic reduction of the population some time in the past: a bottleneck.

...

LYNN JORDE: Mutations in the mitochondria take place with clocklike regularly, so the number of mutations give us a clock essentially that we can use to approximately date the major event. In the case of a population bottleneck we think that this would have occurred roughly 70-80,000 years ago, give or take some number of thousands of years. So then the real question is: what could have caused such a reduction, an extreme reduction, in the human population down to as few as 5 or 10,000 individuals?

...

NARRATOR: This team of scientists believe the bottleneck occurred between 70 and 80,000 years ago, although this date is hotly debated. Toba erupted in the middle of this period, 74,000 years ago. If there really is a connection this research has terrifying implications for a future Yellowstone eruption. It could well be of a similar size and ferocity to Toba. Like Toba, it would have a devastating impact, not just on the surrounding region, North America, but on the whole world.

So, there is a fair summary of what this whole business is all about: an eruption of the Toba volcano about 74,000 years ago is alleged to have caused an "ice age" for humans. That "ice age" in turn caused the reduction of the human population to as few as 5,000 to 10,000 people worldwide. Obviously, it would have been far easier to survive in the warmer Equatorial regions, but even there, the populations would have been severely affected.

Other geneticists have theorized that the origin of so-called "racial characteristics" (different skin colors, etc.) arose during a "bottleneck" of this sort, when individual breeding populations would have been reduced down to a few hundred humans each. In such an environment, mutation can occur far more rapidly, while larger breeding populations tend to stabilize the genome of the species (and this phenomena is somewhat related to Gould's theory of "punctuated equilibria" - this genetic characteristic would seem to be at least one mechanism through which "punctuated equilibria" can occur).

== Bill

Polly Flinders · 04-11-2002, 11:43 AM

Would a future eruption be as disastrous as the one that happened in the distant past? The population of only a few thousand didn't start from a population of 6 billion as it would if such a disaster happened today. Also, they didn't have our medical and other technologies that alleviate the effeects of disasters.

Ragnarok · 04-11-2002, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Polly Flinders:
<strong>Would a future eruption be as disastrous as the one that happened in the distant past? The population of only a few thousand didn't start from a population of 6 billion as it would if such a disaster happened today. Also, they didn't have our medical and other technologies that alleviate the effeects of disasters.</strong>

You could also look at it as being more dangerous today to have this sort of thing happen since we now have so much political and economic interdependence. Even though the supervolcano itself might not end civilization or the human race the resulting economic problems might spiral into a world war. And that could do us in. When I think about all this kind of stuff (asteroids, supervolcanos, etc) all I think is - why the fuck don't more people push to get some colonies on the moon or Mars? Then again, at least here in the states half the people think Jeebus is coming back soon so why bother.

Coragyps · 04-11-2002, 02:37 PM

Quote:

You could also look at it as being more dangerous today to have this sort of thing happen since we now have so much political and economic interdependence.

Yeah, it might not take a real big disaster to bring the developed world pretty low. I'm not so sure I know how to grow enough wheat to feed myself, especially with no sunshine.

Quote:

Then again, at least here in the states half the people think Jeebus is coming back soon so why bother.

My favorite tabloid cover of all time had two headlines, right next to each other:
"Get Your Family Out of Debt by Christmas!"
and
"World Will End in the Next Six Months, Say Experts!"

I decided not to even try the first.

04-09-2002, 01:06 AM	#1
Stabby- Regular Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: the west Posts: 161	Super Volcano! Discovery Channel aired a program on super volcanoes. They hinted that one erupted nearly 70K years ago. Does this fit in anyone's timelines of early human distribution? The Genetic distribution would state that the earth was slowly colonized by humans in 40-30K years? anyone heard of this before? Stabby-------

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04-09-2002, 10:18 AM	#2
butswana Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 1,804	I've heard of it. Seems like it caused such a global climate change that our ancestors numbers dropped to maybe as low as 1000. Spooky.

04-09-2002, 10:21 AM	#3
Jubal Banned Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: NC-US Posts: 98	I watched this. This explains why humanity is not as diverse as some species, perhaps?

04-09-2002, 10:23 AM	#4
Jubal Banned Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: NC-US Posts: 98	On second thought, this would have effected other species as well.

04-09-2002, 02:39 PM	#5
Bunda Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Springfield, New Jersey, USA Posts: 27	Obviously not as huge as the volcano proposed by the program you saw, but there are very old writings from Asia and Britain of more than a year of almost complete darkness. They thought it was some kind of supernatural influence or message. Turns out it was a huge volcano that blacked out a big part of those areas. What a scary thing to live through. A long time of almost complete darkness, cold, horrible tidal waves, and loss of crops resulting in death. With all this, they had no idea what caused it. Literally being "left in the dark".

04-09-2002, 10:11 PM	#6
Stabby- Regular Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: the west Posts: 161	Swan- Perhaps human "society" (even though societies would be a nomadic sort of thing) where more vulnerable to weather changes because of their early agricultural efforts? Seems like a bit of a stretch though. Stabby----

04-11-2002, 11:43 AM	#8
Polly Flinders Junior Member Join Date: May 2001 Location: Canada Posts: 75	Would a future eruption be as disastrous as the one that happened in the distant past? The population of only a few thousand didn't start from a population of 6 billion as it would if such a disaster happened today. Also, they didn't have our medical and other technologies that alleviate the effeects of disasters.

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