Majestyk

..of winning the X Project prize with his SpaceShipOne ? Considering his track record, he must be fairly confident to go public.

Arbogast

Certainly Mr Rutan is the sort of guy that can get the job done.

The Space Industry is in need of some fresh ideas, that is for sure.

It is held back by having to answer to Government Bureaucrats and Politicians.

Worldtraveller

Like him or not (for some reason, a LOT of people in the aerospace industry dislike him), I thik he has a better chance than most.
I have done some design work along the same lines (purely theoretical, I wonder if he's hiring?? ) and determined that the best (i.e. most efficient) method of getting into space was using an air breathing, conventional (wing lift) aircraft as a mothership, and relying on rockets only for the last part.
One of the reasons the shuttle and earlier rockets take so much energy is because all the 'classic' rocket equations have only to do with mass and gravity. They don't take into consideration the advantages to be gained by USING the atmosphere instead of fighting it.
If I had to put money on any one project (and I might invest....) that would be the one.
The guy is an aerodynamics genius, right up there with Kelly Johnson, IMO.
Lane aka 'WT'

NumberTenOx

Am I missing something here?

The difference between Rutan's plane and the Space Shuttle is about 28,000 kilometers/hr. So he can get into space but he can't stay there, because he is no where close to orbital speed. What use is that?

Majestyk

I called this the X Project in the OP. It is actually the “X Prize”.

It's a good way to get ten million dollars while doing something you love to do. But I think the impetus is the hope that once a momentum is achieved in private sector extra-atmospheric activities, it will continue to develop after the prize is won.