Tony

“The survey and news reports about the study, though, noted that one of the most significant findings involved growth in that segment of the adult population "identifying with no religion." In 1990, 14.3 million or roughly 8% identified with this category. The new ARIS count now shows that the non-believer population has grown to 29.4 million, roughly 14.1% of the American community.” (Source: http://www.atheists.org/flash.line/atheist4.htm )


8% –1990
14% – 2001
So, 2001-1990 = 11 years; 14%-8% = 6%.

X – The number of years to reach 100% non-believers in US.

So, 11 years – 6%
X years – 100%.

Simple proportion: X = (11x100) / 6 = 183.33 years.

In Canada:
“Canadians citing no religious affiliation comprised just 7 per cent of the population 20 years ago. By 1991, it was 13 per cent.
…the number of Canadians claiming no religion more than doubled in 13 years to 26 per cent in 2000.” (Source: http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...d=970599119419 )

So, 13 years – 26%
X years – 100%

X – The number of years to reach 100% non-believers in Canada.

X = (13x100) / 26 = 50 years.

Shake

I'd have to say something along the lines of the disclaimers given for financial outfits:Dad says a lot of trends are like a pendulum: things go far one way, then people react and they go back the other. This seems to hold in multiple areas of human endeavors.

Spaz

I wish it worked that easy...

Vorkosigan

The study referenced in the OP erred somehow. Neither Barna, NORC, Gallup nor Harris have found similar results. I used to have the info on file <sigh>

Vorkosigan

Vorkosigan

Barna says:Those who claim to be atheist or agnostic have held firm at about one out of every ten adults, presently measuring 11%.

More importantly, the poll has not found the major shifts in numbers required to account for the "rise" of non-religious.

But Gallup found 13% had no religious tradition. So I guess I am wrong....I saw NORC data from '98 that weren't very high.

Never mind!

ComestibleVenom

Not having a religious tradition may subsume atheism and agnosticism without being exausted by them.

Viti

I agree...wouldn't apatheism be considered "non-religious" or some form of Deism or Pantheism...what about an undefined "Supreme Being"....or do they have their own category?

seebs

I seem to recall that number may have been higher in the US a century back - at least, I vaguely recall statistics showing that the number of non-church-going people is lower today than it was in, say, 1880.

I suspect it's a pendulum thing, in no small part... But a very complicated one. The majority of ex-Christian atheists I know are ex-fundies; my guess is that sooner or later the fundie subset will implode one way or another, but then they'll stop turning people off of the more moderate varieties.

Defiant Heretic

I don't know about moderate Protestants, but judging from my own experience, deconversion among Catholics seems to be fairly high. I'm a former Catholic, myself, as are several other people here.

Grizzly

The assumption of linear growth is crippling to this argument. We know that growth and decline of religious belief does not follow a straight line.

But its still a nice thought.