sullster

Are we on the verge of a fight with North Korea? They are firing up their nuclear reactors and have dismantled a UN monitoring device. How far can they push?

North Korea seems to be taking advantage of the obvious buildup of US forces in the Persian Gulf and the centering of attention in that theater. We could be in a two front war.

The world is greatly changed since Korean War 1, but would China stand aside while the US rips apart N Korea this time? The US may have to use conventional ground forces and for those of you who have read about Korea 1950-1953, you know that it is a tough and cold area to fight in this time of year.

Tense times. Indeed.

Loren Pechtel

The real problem is the destruction North Korea can rain upon the south before we could stop them. That's why we have been pussy-footing around rather than going in and blowing up the reactors.

Amen-Moses

It aint just the south it's Taiwan, Japan and if the latest US propaganda is to be believed regarding SCUD II anywhere within 5000 km, including possibly the west coast of the USA.

Although I do agree that NK could flatten SK without too much trouble, after all 35,000 US troops won't cause 1.5 million NK troops much in the way of resistance.

Amen-Moses

Acinom

Yes... indeed. That's a good question though. It's hard to say because China has betrayed North Korea in the past when it renewed trade with South Korea. China probably also considers NK as much of a nuisance as the rest of the world does. NK has been isolated for so long now it's become a wild card. There's no telling who they'll try to attack with nuclear weapons. Also, the famines and the oppressive government has caused a massive influx of poor, uneducated North Koreans into China -- something that China, with its vast population and its own mouths to feed, simply CANNOT afford. So maybe this time China will just sit back and let the U.S. do to North Korea what China is politically restrained from doing.

But then again, North Korea has always been a buffering zone between China and South Korea, an ally of the U.S. So instead of North Korea and South Korea staring each other down across the DMZ, could they really stand the possibility of China and the U.S. staring at each other down another DMZ?

LordMoneyG

Rumsfeld has been very honest in his opinion that the US is prepared to fight "a war on two fronts." My question is this - Will Bush pursue a ground assault from the outset, or will he play his cards much like his father did - Airborne attacks followed by ground forces later?

And yes, it it pretty damn cold...

Loren Pechtel

Originally posted by Amen-Moses:
It aint just the south it's Taiwan, Japan and if the latest US propaganda is to be believed regarding SCUD II anywhere within 5000 km, including possibly the west coast of the USA.

However, we probably know their launching sites. If it goes WMD we would flatten any such bases with nukes. I don't think they would get them off.

Although I do agree that NK could flatten SK without too much trouble, after all 35,000 US troops won't cause 1.5 million NK troops much in the way of resistance.

It's not the 1.5 million troops that are the problem, it's the WMD they could throw. Seoul is within artillery range of the north. Remember that the south has it's own army, they probably could withstand a conventional attack long enough for our troops to get there. That's what's kept the north from coming south all these years.

Loren Pechtel

Of course we would start with an air war! Why do you think we could attack an army twice as big as ours in the gulf? Normal military doctrine is the attacker should have three times the force of the defender.

Also, most of Korea is mountainous--not tank country. That's all the more reason to use air power. Desert storm was so successful because it was nearly ideal tank country and our tanks are so much better than theirs.

We would probably not engage the bulk of North Korea's army. We would simply keep them bottled up, bomb their supplies and wait for them to surrender. When there's no food and no heat and it's freezing out, they'll give up.

Gurdur

With North Korea, we're all pretty much in trouble, since North Korean attacks on Japan, or even only upon South Korea, would crash the world economy badly.

The only answer would seem to be pre-emptive military strikes against the nuclear reactors / storage plants, and this opens a whole new case of worms.
I don't imagine China is too happy with North Korea's adventurism - but what China would agree to in the way of intervention is unknown, and to some degree incalculable.

Sakpo

Well China certainly doesn't want N. Korea to do anything that will fuck up the global and regional economies too badly...that gives us one clue (though I agree their response would still be somewhat unpredictable). They may be inclined just to turn a blind eye to the whole thing. I don't suppose there's much chance they'll attack themselves....but certainly N. Korea is a thorn in their side, and with their economic aspirations I doubt they'll be too upset if N. Korea gets smashed.

I sincerely hope this can all be worked out without too much death, but when the leaders are madmen...

[ December 24, 2002: Message edited by: Sakpo ]</p>

FloatingEgg

I'm not sure if the U.S. is on the verge of war with N. Korea or not, however I do hope that they tread lightly.

Korea is a completely differen't animal than Iraq, and they will reign down hellfire, so to speak, if pushed.