Freethought & Rationalism Archive

trunks2k · 12-24-2002, 07:01 PM

North Korea, as adventurous as it is being, should be treading a little more lightly. The cold war is over. NK isn't going to find nearly as much support as they had before (if any at all) from anyone if they start anything. China doesn't seem to want too much to do with them; and with China's increasing relations with the west (more free trade, improving economy, more of lean towards capitalism, etc), I think it makes it even less likely that they will assist NK. The US would be able to flatten NK if a fight ever broke out. But the big problem is what NK would do in a first move.

I see NK being a much bigger risk than Iraq has ever been and depending on what NK does in the near future, I could be more understanding of a pre-emptive air strike by the US. Especially if we can get China to support us (either via publicity or putting pressure on NK to stop) or at least agree to stay out of it.

Loren Pechtel · 12-24-2002, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gurdur:
With North Korea, we're all pretty much in trouble, since North Korean attacks on Japan, or even only upon South Korea, would crash the world economy badly.

The only answer would seem to be pre-emptive military strikes against the nuclear reactors / storage plants, and this opens a whole new case of worms.
I don't imagine China is too happy with North Korea's adventurism - but what China would agree to in the way of intervention is unknown, and to some degree incalculable.

If they wouldn't react by destroying Seoul that would be the right approach. Clinton didn't do it in 94 because of the risk.

Loren Pechtel · 12-24-2002, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by trunks2k:
North Korea, as adventurous as it is being, should be treading a little more lightly. The cold war is over. NK isn't going to find nearly as much support as they had before (if any at all) from anyone if they start anything. China doesn't seem to want too much to do with them; and with China's increasing relations with the west (more free trade, improving economy, more of lean towards capitalism, etc), I think it makes it even less likely that they will assist NK. The US would be able to flatten NK if a fight ever broke out. But the big problem is what NK would do in a first move.

I see NK being a much bigger risk than Iraq has ever been and depending on what NK does in the near future, I could be more understanding of a pre-emptive air strike by the US. Especially if we can get China to support us (either via publicity or putting pressure on NK to stop) or at least agree to stay out of it.

The real danger I see is nuclear blackmail from them.

Answerer · 12-24-2002, 08:05 PM

I will believe that the war with Iraq will most probably occur first before a Korean war starts. Apparently, the U.S government is already running out of patience with Iraq and hope to devote more time and manspower with the North Korean rising military threat.
In the end, there is a slight chance that Bush will go to war with each and every 'member' of the 'axis of evil'.
Guess what guys, maybe Bush is right after all.

Syphor · 12-24-2002, 08:14 PM

Quote:

We would probably not engage the bulk of North Korea's army. We would simply keep them bottled up, bomb their supplies and wait for them to surrender. When there's no food and no heat and it's freezing out, they'll give up.

Remember the Korean War? When UN forces outflanked the North Koreans, smashed their supply lines and pushed them all the way back to the Chinese border. With their military crushed, South Korea liberated and their country overrun did they surrender? Of course China wouldn't save them this time but that isn't the point. Morale of course is a big part of warfare and that is what makes the North so dangerous. They are indoctrinated with blind fanaticism for their leader (their God virtually), Kim Jong Il. Their fanatical devotion to their way of life and system of beliefs makes them far more credible than any mass surrendering Iraqi army and their shoddy attitude toward the Hussein regime.

[ December 24, 2002: Message edited by: Syphor ]

Vorkosigan · 12-24-2002, 08:46 PM

Kim Jong Il. Their fanatical devotion to their way of life and system of beliefs makes them far more credible than any mass surrendering Iraqi army and their shoddy attitude toward the Hussein regime.
[ December 24, 2002: Message edited by: Syphor ][/QUOTE]

Here are some sites comparing the two militaries, North and South:

<a href="http://www.koreascope.org/english/sub/1/index8.htm" target="_blank">Here...</a>
<a href="http://www.mnd.go.kr/mnden/sub_menu/w_book/1999/sub9.htm" target="_blank">...and here....</a>
<a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/rok/orbat-comp.htm" target="_blank">...combat equipment listed here at bottom...</a>
<a href="http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/" target="_blank">...Special Weapons Guide from FAS...</a>
<a href="http://www.fas.org/news/skorea/" target="_blank">..and S Korea's WMDs</a>
<a href="http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/ops/korea-orbat.htm" target="_blank">US stuff in Korea</a>

I don't doubt that we would defeat NKorea, but the cost, especially the human cost, would be appalling, and would probably include damage to Japan and perhaps China as well. I sure hope it doesn't come to fighting.

Vorkosigan

Syphor · 12-24-2002, 09:20 PM

Thankyou Vorkosigan, I've been looking for something like this.

Sakpo · 12-24-2002, 09:40 PM

Is there any chance that all this will have any significant effects on the whole Taiwan / China problem?

Vorkosigan · 12-25-2002, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sakpo:
Is there any chance that all this will have any significant effects on the whole Taiwan / China problem?

No. Jiang wants to annex Taiwan before he passes on, and has retained control over the military probably specifically for that purpose. Whatever happens between Taiwan and China has probably already been determined at the top of the CCP.

However, there are two possible ways I see it could affect the Taiwan situation. If China decided to launch a war if the US was distracted by a Korean conflict. But that would be monumentally stupid. China stands to gain a lot selling supplies to the US in such a conflict, and its booming coastal regions are completely dependent on foreign investment and trade that would likely be curtailed if there was a war.

A second way is if a Korean War became more generalized and affected the China coast's trade with the west and Japan. Those regions, if you recall, are politically restive and periodically there are muted calls for independence. In boom times nobody really says too much about how much Beijing skims off, though there is some undercurrent of resentment. But demagogues might well take advantage of an economic downturn to agitate for an independent state of Kuangchou/Fukien/Shanghai. Then China may feel compelled to launch a war to annex Taiwan in order to keep the country unified. The basic problem is that China has turned to nationalism to legitimate the CCP's rule, and thus, is committed to recovering Taiwan or losing gross amounts of face.

The two Koreas both feel that they are one country divided, but hardly anyone in Taiwan wants to unify with China, and hardly anyone thinks Taiwan is part of China. So the situation, by itself, is radically different. Koreas are sad they are divided, Taiwanese are delighted.

Vorkosigan

Sakpo · 12-25-2002, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Vorkosigan:

However, there are two possible ways I see it could affect the Taiwan situation. If China decided to launch a war if the US was distracted by a Korean conflict. But that would be monumentally stupid. China stands to gain a lot selling supplies to the US in such a conflict, and its booming coastal regions are completely dependent on foreign investment and trade that would likely be curtailed if there was a war.

Alright, that's what I was wondering, I figured if the U.S. was stuck in Iraq and Korea, Taiwan would be vulnerable.

12-24-2002, 08:46 PM	#16
Vorkosigan Contributor Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Barrayar Posts: 11,866	<strong> Kim Jong Il. Their fanatical devotion to their way of life and system of beliefs makes them far more credible than any mass surrendering Iraqi army and their shoddy attitude toward the Hussein regime. [ December 24, 2002: Message edited by: Syphor ]</strong>[/QUOTE] Here are some sites comparing the two militaries, North and South: <a href="http://www.koreascope.org/english/sub/1/index8.htm" target="_blank">Here...</a> <a href="http://www.mnd.go.kr/mnden/sub_menu/w_book/1999/sub9.htm" target="_blank">...and here....</a> <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/rok/orbat-comp.htm" target="_blank">...combat equipment listed here at bottom...</a> <a href="http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/" target="_blank">...Special Weapons Guide from FAS...</a> <a href="http://www.fas.org/news/skorea/" target="_blank">..and S Korea's WMDs</a> <a href="http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/ops/korea-orbat.htm" target="_blank">US stuff in Korea</a> I don't doubt that we would defeat NKorea, but the cost, especially the human cost, would be appalling, and would probably include damage to Japan and perhaps China as well. I sure hope it doesn't come to fighting. Vorkosigan

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

12-24-2002, 07:01 PM	#11
trunks2k Veteran Member Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 6,997	North Korea, as adventurous as it is being, should be treading a little more lightly. The cold war is over. NK isn't going to find nearly as much support as they had before (if any at all) from anyone if they start anything. China doesn't seem to want too much to do with them; and with China's increasing relations with the west (more free trade, improving economy, more of lean towards capitalism, etc), I think it makes it even less likely that they will assist NK. The US would be able to flatten NK if a fight ever broke out. But the big problem is what NK would do in a first move. I see NK being a much bigger risk than Iraq has ever been and depending on what NK does in the near future, I could be more understanding of a pre-emptive air strike by the US. Especially if we can get China to support us (either via publicity or putting pressure on NK to stop) or at least agree to stay out of it.

12-24-2002, 07:30 PM	#13
Loren Pechtel Obsessed Contributor Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Not Mayaned Posts: 96,752	Originally posted by trunks2k: North Korea, as adventurous as it is being, should be treading a little more lightly. The cold war is over. NK isn't going to find nearly as much support as they had before (if any at all) from anyone if they start anything. China doesn't seem to want too much to do with them; and with China's increasing relations with the west (more free trade, improving economy, more of lean towards capitalism, etc), I think it makes it even less likely that they will assist NK. The US would be able to flatten NK if a fight ever broke out. But the big problem is what NK would do in a first move. I see NK being a much bigger risk than Iraq has ever been and depending on what NK does in the near future, I could be more understanding of a pre-emptive air strike by the US. Especially if we can get China to support us (either via publicity or putting pressure on NK to stop) or at least agree to stay out of it. The real danger I see is nuclear blackmail from them.

12-24-2002, 08:05 PM	#14
Answerer Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Singapore Posts: 3,956	I will believe that the war with Iraq will most probably occur first before a Korean war starts. Apparently, the U.S government is already running out of patience with Iraq and hope to devote more time and manspower with the North Korean rising military threat. In the end, there is a slight chance that Bush will go to war with each and every 'member' of the 'axis of evil'. Guess what guys, maybe Bush is right after all.

12-24-2002, 09:20 PM	#17
Syphor Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Australia Posts: 991	Thankyou Vorkosigan, I've been looking for something like this.

12-24-2002, 09:40 PM	#18
Sakpo Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Pacific Northwest (illegally occupied indigenous l Posts: 7,716	Is there any chance that all this will have any significant effects on the whole Taiwan / China problem?

Freethought & Rationalism Archive

The archives are read only.