elwoodblues

China has been building their military up over the last 20 years or so. However, much of their current force is in outdated material and technology. This older section, including material from the 50's, 60's and 70's, mostly imported from the Soviet Union, will probably be retired over the next decade or so. Their military is producing and buying newer technology material, but at a much slower rate than they'll have to retire the old stuff. As a result, the conventional military force of China will shrink substantially over the next decade.

In addition, the US's developing weapons technology is rapidly neutralizing all of what is already outdated, and even much of China's more modern weaponry. Directed-energy microwave bombs, stealthy aircraft, smart bombs, missile interceptors. Quantity has a quality all it's own, but in the face of this technological superiority, even numerical superiority is neutralized. We saw that in Iraq a decade ago. It's only more-so today.

What I worry is this. China's military leadership may see this window of opportunity in the next 6 months or so as a 'last chance' to make a grab for Taiwan. If the US is tied up in Iraq and threatened by North Korea, we can't intervene very well in any conflict in the Strait. With the US military out of the picture, such an attack becomes contemplatable.

There's basically three ways China can go:

1) Invasion. China's landing force is pathetic. It might be able to land a couple infantry brigades, which would resoundingly bounce. China's air force is better, but Taiwan would certainly be able to heavily contest the skies. Any kind of traditional 'invasion' would take months to put together. The US might not be able to assist directly, but we'd certainly share satellite intelligence with Taiwan.

2) Missile attack. China's theatre missiles are not precise enough to attack airfields and radar, but they could be used to terrorize the population. This probably wouldn't work too well. I am assuming that China keeps it conventional. I don't think they're nutballs of THAT magnitude. They know how important Taiwan is to the economy of that region.

3) Siege. This last option I'd ignored until examining the situation in detail, but it looks like a more viable one now, especially compared to the losing propositions of an invasion or missile barrage. A naval blockade. This would be one area where China's numeric superiority could come into play. They have a lot of submarines and surface ships, even if they are ancient. Taiwan has a fairly limited number of ways to hit a naval target, especially the submarines. And, as far as I know, they have a fairly limited capability for waiting out a siege.

Furthermore, I think the blockade might actually be legal under international law. If someone more knowledgable on the subject could contribute their view, I'd appreciate it, because this especially gives me pause. If it's legal, even if only technically, it's that much more appealing to a broad range of Chinese leadership. It'd give them a figleaf to hide behind. It'd let them stall in the UN for weeks or months more than they might otherwise.

I'd be thankful if someone could poke holes in this. I want to get some sleep tonight.

Amen-Moses

Which of course is why the US relies on modern equipment like B-52's and U2's I suppose.

Amen-Moses

trunks2k

I thought they have stopped using U2's? B-52s are just a good conventional bomber

Aerion

Both are still in use but have a pretty limited role. Both have higher tech replacements that, none-the-less have some limitations. The B-1 was built as a replacement for the B-52 but the B-1 is very expensive and has a smaller payload. The SR-71 was built to replace the U-2 but was very expensive to fly.

I expect UAVs will eventually replace the U-2 and smart bomb technology will eventually replace the need for the B-52.

Amen-Moses

The U2 was replaced by the Tr1 but I'm confused as to what happened to it. One of the things that Saddam has just agreed to U2 overflights, I don't know why they even want U2 (or possibly Tr1) overflights though as we have far better aircraft to do the same job.

The Tr1 is early 70's technology btw, the U2 is late 50's and the B-52 is late 40's to early 50's.

Hell even the Sr-71 is 60's technology along with the F-14 & 15.

The Chinese fighter that tangled with the late 50's Orion a few years ago was late 80's technology btw.

The bulk of all forces in the world are several decades old at least and in many cases the older more specialised equipment can be the best thing for the job, for example there is no sub hunter in the world that surpasses the Nimrod and that is ancient (the airframes are converted Comets for crying out loud!

Amen-Moses

edited to correct a few dates.

Loren Pechtel

Originally posted by elwoodblues
In addition, the US's developing weapons technology is rapidly neutralizing all of what is already outdated, and even much of China's more modern weaponry. Directed-energy microwave bombs, stealthy aircraft, smart bombs, missile interceptors. Quantity has a quality all it's own, but in the face of this technological superiority, even numerical superiority is neutralized. We saw that in Iraq a decade ago. It's only more-so today.

Yeah, much of what China has is basically merely targets. It's only dangerous in that it uses up defensive fire--to fail to shoot at it would pose a threat.

What I worry is this. China's military leadership may see this window of opportunity in the next 6 months or so as a 'last chance' to make a grab for Taiwan. If the US is tied up in Iraq and threatened by North Korea, we can't intervene very well in any conflict in the Strait. With the US military out of the picture, such an attack becomes contemplatable.

I wouldn't consider it quite this bad unless NK erupts into open fighting.

3) Siege. This last option I'd ignored until examining the situation in detail, but it looks like a more viable one now, especially compared to the losing propositions of an invasion or missile barrage. A naval blockade. This would be one area where China's numeric superiority could come into play. They have a lot of submarines and surface ships, even if they are ancient. Taiwan has a fairly limited number of ways to hit a naval target, especially the submarines. And, as far as I know, they have a fairly limited capability for waiting out a siege.

I think we could escort the needed ships. Come in on the east side and China is going to have a hard time putting a lot of force in the area and I doubt they'll take the shot when there's a reasonable chance the torpedo goes for a US ship instead. If they do, their subs won't be around for long.

elwoodblues

Just a quick note on this in passing...

Some military tech and materials are so good, so robust, so multi-purposed and efficient, that they're eminently usable decades after they're built. The Jeep, Warthog, MiG, B-52, U2, and SR-71 are all excellent examples of this for different reasons. The vast majority of the old equipment the Chinese conventional force consists of does not fit this category.

Also, a note on how the US military has changed in the last decade or so. In the first Gulf War, about 10% of the bombs we dropped were 'smart'. If another war starts tomorrow, it'll be more like 90%.

Loren-

Yeah, I guess the Pacific fleet won't really be tied up with NK unless it devolves into a shooting war. Maybe this scenario is a lot more unlikely than I thought at first.

I do think we're going through a critical period in the next year or so. Plenty stupider things have happened in history than the scenario I outlined above.

Aerion

The big problem with the China/Taiwan issue is that China really can't do anything about Taiwan and they know it. They don't have the military might for an anphibious assault. Their navy is pretty weak overall. Militarily, China's biggest strength is in sheer numbers of infantry and of course, nukes.

So the problem is, short of turning Taiwan into glass, there is nothing they can do. I think China is slowly realizing that they need to learn from Taiwan rather than attempting to conquer it. China has too many internal problems to be a threat to Taiwan.

I've been vary encouraged by the recent changes in China. Their new premier is younger and more moderate. They are slowly converting to a market economy. China has relaxed their attitude towards Tibet.

But, militarily, the United States could pretty well protect Taiwan with 2 Carrier Battle Groups. Nothing China has could stand up to that unless they want to resort to nukes.

Duck!

I caught the end of a documentary on the B-52 bomber a couple of days ago which claimed that the B-52 could still be in active service in the year 2040.

But don't quote me on that.


Duck!

Vorkosigan

[QUOTE]Originally posted by elwoodblues
What I worry is this. China's military leadership may see this window of opportunity in the next 6 months or so as a 'last chance' to make a grab for Taiwan. If the US is tied up in Iraq and threatened by North Korea, we can't intervene very well in any conflict in the Strait. With the US military out of the picture, such an attack becomes contemplatable.

It's not the "window of opportunity" scenario that scares me, but the widely-reported claim that Jiang wants to go out as the man who annexed Taiwan to China. That's the pressure I'm feeling.

1) Invasion. China's landing force is pathetic. It might be able to land a couple infantry brigades, which would resoundingly bounce.

Don't bet on this. Taiwan's armed forces are incompetent. The logistics end is hideously corrupt. Taiwan has lots of high-tech equipment which it does not know how to properly use. Morale is low, the officer class is pro-China, careerist and out-of-date. Remember, because Taiwan does not conduct war games with the US, it is far behind in tactics and C3. It has been isolated from the mainstream of military development for more than 20 years now.

The Chinese could land lots of troops by informal methods. It is only a hundred klicks across the Strait, although the only good landing areas are actually on the northeast side of the island -- the side that faces China is a morass of mud flats (they would thus have to sail around the top of Taiwan). The Federation of American Scientists (www.fas.org) has a page on this on their Taiwan page. Put Taiwan into their search function and read what comes up. Their analysis isn't correct, in my view, but they hit on the right issues and have good maps. BTW, the US invasion plan for '44 called for landings in the southernmost part of the island and a sweep north.

My major personal nightmare is that all China has to do is land troops, even a small brigade, and the largely mainlander officer class would go over to China to a man. Every year military and political retirees leave Taiwan and move back to China, where they give the gov't the latest Taiwan secrets. The military is basically pro-China. Very scary.

China's air force is better, but Taiwan would certainly be able to heavily contest the skies. Any kind of traditional 'invasion' would take months to put together. The US might not be able to assist directly, but we'd certainly share satellite intelligence with Taiwan.

That's all probably true.

2) Missile attack. China's theatre missiles are not precise enough to attack airfields and radar, but they could be used to terrorize the population. This probably wouldn't work too well. I am assuming that China keeps it conventional. I don't think they're nutballs of THAT magnitude. They know how important Taiwan is to the economy of that region.

They have threatened to nuke the island, but I don't think they will either. China could easily defeat the island's air force by attrition. Taiwan is not the Israel of the Far East, and there will be no Bekka Valleys here. My personal view is that this is the most serious threat. Taiwan has no missile defense and few missiles of its own. I wish they'd build about a million.

3) Siege. This last option I'd ignored until examining the situation in detail, but it looks like a more viable one now, especially compared to the losing propositions of an invasion or missile barrage. A naval blockade. This would be one area where China's numeric superiority could come into play. They have a lot of submarines and surface ships, even if they are ancient. Taiwan has a fairly limited number of ways to hit a naval target, especially the submarines. And, as far as I know, they have a fairly limited capability for waiting out a siege.

China's navy actually worries me the least (it's the missiles in the terror role that scare me). For one thing, while they have lots of ships, most are in the drydock at any one time, since they cannot crew them all, maintenance is hit or miss too. The Chinese Navy is exceedingly corrupt.

Further, a siege will result in serious political problems for China at home and abroad. Economic growth in China will grind to a halt. Economic growth in China is large economic growth in SOUTH China, facing Taiwan, and funded in large part by Taiwanese companies. The Chinese will tolerate the CCP only so long as it delivers growth -- I think outsiders vastly underestimate the legitimacy economic growth confers on a Chinese government. Too the PLA depends on economic growth to operate its many businesses, and may actually oppose any long-term war because it will cut into profits.

A second major domestic issue is that the south is restive and there are independence rumblings there. Xinjiang and other places might also seize a long-term crisis to break away. China is an empire, not a state, and suffers from all the problems an empire faces.

On the international side, the shipping lanes between Japan and Southeast Asia will be disrupted. Japanese investment, which China desperately needs, will falter. Japan will not take a hand in the war, but may provide assistance to Taiwan, which it has political and cultural links to. The US will not sit idly by either, and of course China's trade with the US will disappear. The Europeans will do nothing, as usual, although they will be certain to criticize the US no matter what it does.

Furthermore, I think the blockade might actually be legal under international law.

That's an interesting question bound up with the question of taiwan's sovereignty. I suspect you are correct and they could tie it up in the UN for quite a while.

You've left out option (4), the most probable threat:

China's economic growth sucks the economic life out of Taiwan (as it is currently doing). Facing increasingly bleak growth prospects, the Taiwanese kid themselves into joining with China in hopes of improving their economic conditions and more conveniently accessing that market.

Vorkosigan