Freethought & Rationalism Archive

leonarde · 05-10-2003, 10:45 AM

Since one or more persons expressed interest in intelligence evaluations of Iraq's (now former) WMD programs by academic and/or think tank organizations, I took a look at a source or two that I found a number of weeks (months?) ago.
So for openers-------I'll probably do this in piecemeal fashion----the evaluation(s) by the Monterey Institute of International Studies (last updated in September of 2001). Multiple sources are used (noted at the bottom in footnotes) but here the characterization of the nuclear program:

Quote:

With sufficient black-market uranium or plutonium, Iraq probably could fabricate a nuclear weapon. If undetected and unobstructed, could produce weapons-grade fissile material within several years.
Engaged in clandestine procurement of special nuclear weapon-related equipment.
Retains large and experienced pool of nuclear scientists and technicians.
Retains nuclear weapons design, and may retain related components and software.
Repeatedly violated its obligations under the NPT, which Iraq ratified on 10/29/69.
Repeatedly violated its obligations under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 687, which mandates destruction of Iraq's nuclear weapon capabilities.
Until halted by Coalition air attacks and UNSCOM disarmament efforts, Iraq had an extensive nuclear weapon development program that began in 1972, involved 10,000 personnel, and had a multi-year budget totaling approximately $10 billion.
In 1990, Iraq also launched a crash program to divert reactor fuel under IAEA safeguards to produce nuclear weapons.
Considered two delivery options for nuclear weapons: either using unmodified al-Hussein ballistic missile with 300km range, or producing Al-Hussein derivative with 650km range.
In 1987, Iraq reportedly field tested a radiological bomb.

Above from:
http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/iraq.htm

Cheers!

leonarde · 05-10-2003, 11:17 AM

Here's an excerpt from an article called "Iraq's Reconstitution of Its Nuclear Weapons Program" by David Albright and Khidhir Hamza (the latter a former Iraqi scientist involved in its nuclear weapons program):

Quote:

Weaponization

Iraq's effort to produce a nuclear explosive started in the mid-1980s. Under a 1988 plan, Iraq intended to have its first weapon by the summer of 1991, based on an implosion design. Iraq had worked on developing the capability to make fissile material for many years prior to this date, and Iraq has explained that the decision at that particular time reflected the expectation that domestically produced HEU would become available within a few years. Iraq intended that its nuclear weapons would be put on ballistic missiles. Iraq faced many problems in trying to reduce and ruggedize its design to fit on top of a ballistic missile.

Questions remain about the status of Iraq's weaponization program at the time of the allied bombing campaign in January 1991, when most activities were halted. Nevertheless, the Action Team inspectors have concluded that with the accelerated effort under the crash program, Iraq could have finished a nuclear explosive design by the end of 1991, if certain technical problems were overcome. However, it would have needed longer to prove a design for the Al Hussein missile. This missile, for example, would have required a warhead with a diameter of 70 centimeters to 80 centimeters, much smaller than the diameter of the design nearing completion that had a diameter of about 120 centimeters.

Iraq was also planning to build a nuclear test site, called the Al Sahara Project. At the time of the allied bombing campaign, Iraq had picked candidate sites in southwest Iraq but it had not performed a site investigation. In addition, according to a senior Iraqi nuclear official, Iraq did not plan to conduct a test before it had accumulated a few nuclear weapons. Iraq has stated that it planned to develop confidence in its weapon designs through an extensive experimental testing program that stopped short of a full-scale nuclear test.

Crash Program

By the time Iraq invaded Kuwait, Iraq still lacked an indigenous source of fissile material; its enrichment plants were still far away from producing HEU. In mid-August 1990, the Iraqi leadership ordered the diversion of its stock of safeguarded HEU fuel. Iraq's initial plan was to extract the HEU from the fuel, further enrich a portion of it, and build a nuclear weapon. The goal was to execute this plan within six months, although by the time of the allied bombing campaign in mid-January 1991 which stopped the effort, Iraq had fallen several months behind. A nuclear warhead for a ballistic missile would have taken significantly longer.

Reconstitution

Iraq has denied trying to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program after the Gulf War, although Iraqi documents suggest otherwise, at least for the period right after the war. Documents dated early June 1991 but finished several weeks earlier, called for salvaged equipment for processing safeguarded HEU fuel to be moved from the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center to Tarmiya. Only in late May did the first inspection team show up at Tarmiya, unknowingly halting any Iraqi effort to reconstitute these projects there.[...]

And from the same article, paragraph 3:

Quote:

Since the war, Iraq is suspected of having made progress on a number of bottlenecks in its weapons program, at least those which could be done with little chance of detection by inspectors. These activities include design work, laboratory efforts, subcomponent production, and the operation of test machines. If the inspection system becomes ineffective, Iraq could reconstitute major aspects of its nuclear weapons program that would likely be discovered under the current inspection regime, a combination of historical investigations and an on-going monitoring and verification (OMV) system. Even under the OMV regime, Iraq's illicit acquisition of plutonium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) from the former Soviet Union would be very difficult to detect. Because of this and other weaknesses, the OMV system needs improvement to be effective in deterring and detecting Iraq's banned activities.

The above article appeared in the October 1998 issue of "Arms Control Today" though I found it online here:
http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...q/act1298.html

Cheers!

Evangelion · 05-10-2003, 11:23 AM

Quote:

I'll probably do this in piecemeal fashion

Was there ever any doubt that you would...?

Loren Pechtel · 05-10-2003, 07:28 PM

A tidbit to throw into this. The Nth country project. A research endeavour by the US government. Basic idea: Gather up some engineering types that know very little of nuclear physics. Assignment: Design a bomb. They had *NO* access to anything classified. Experiments were simulated (an in some cases actually conducted) by a group of bomb designers. It took them 3 years, in the end they had designed a plutonium bomb similar to what was used in WWII. While the bomb was never built the bomb designers said it would work.

This was in 1964.

RED DAVE · 05-10-2003, 07:47 PM

1) The US has weapons of mass destruction.

2) The US has used them in actual warfare.

3) The US supplied Iraq with the material for poison gas and biological warfare during the Iran-Iraq War, which we encouraged Iraq to begin.

4) The US, essentially, let Iraq know that it would take no action if Iraq invaded Kuwait.

5) We lied about that.

6) Since Gulf War I, Iraq has undertaken no aggressive acts towards any countries.

7) Whatever pathetic attempts Iraq made to revive its weapons programs after Gulf War I were wholly ineffective.

8) Iraq had nothing to do with the destruction of the World Trade Center and the deaths of almost 3000 people therein.

9) At least 150,000 Iraqis were killed during Gulf War I.

10) At least 1,000,000 Iraqi children have died due to sanctions.

11) No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq prior to the Bush invasion, and none have been found since, despite the fact that inspectors and US troops have been wandering around Iraq looking for them.

WHY THE FUCK DID WE GO TO WAR WITH THIS MISERABLE, ALREADY-DEFEATED, TOTALLY IMPOVERISHED, COUNTRY?

Are you so detached that you can rationalize this mass murder?

RED DAVE

Ion · 05-10-2003, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by RED DAVE

...
11) No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq prior to the Bush invasion, and none have been found since, despite the fact that inspectors and US troops have been wandering around Iraq looking for them.

WHY THE FUCK DID WE GO TO WAR WITH THIS MISERABLE, ALREADY-DEFEATED, TOTALLY IMPOVERISHED, COUNTRY?
...
RED DAVE

Because of many reasons related to U.S. getting power -as understood by Bush- in the Middle East.

Like:

.) some Europeans were about to get contracts for buying Iraqi's oil with Euros;
trading in Euros worldwide, was undermining the U.S. monopoly of having all trades in the world made with U.S. dollars;
U.S. can print these U.S. dollars without much work, while U.S. getting Euros would have meant U.S. competing in free enterprise with the world in order to export U.S. goods and get Euros;
the war stopped by force the trading in Euros;

so much for free enterprise;

.) Iraq was sponsoring Palestinian terrorists attacking Israel, which the U.S. neo-conservatives (Fleisher, Perle, Wolfowitz, Kristol) convinced Bush that must stop by war on Iraq.

Bush -concocting in U.N. and in U.S. bogus reasons for the Iraqi war, then attacking Iraq in an almost solo U.S. effort-, is a hooligan.

Mike S. · 05-10-2003, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Loren Pechtel
A tidbit to throw into this. The Nth country project. A research endeavour by the US government. Basic idea: Gather up some engineering types that know very little of nuclear physics. Assignment: Design a bomb. They had *NO* access to anything classified. Experiments were simulated (an in some cases actually conducted) by a group of bomb designers. It took them 3 years, in the end they had designed a plutonium bomb similar to what was used in WWII. While the bomb was never built the bomb designers said it would work.

This was in 1964.

Great point. Colin Powell on meet the press a week ago said that Saddam was a danger not because of the weapons he did possess but because of the scientists he had that could build weapons.

The new face of disarmament American style: not having any weapons is not enough, you now apparently have to execute the tens of thousands of technical people in your country too!

Jesus Tap-Dancin' Christ · 05-10-2003, 09:57 PM

*notes that the site linked to in the OP states that WMD programs done in 1991 after Gulf War and that no dae later than 1991 is mentioned on that page*

*notes that the other article only shows that there was action immediatley following the Gulf War, after which there is no evidence*

RED DAVE · 05-10-2003, 10:04 PM

From Jesus Tap-Dancin' Christ:

Quote:

*notes that the site linked to in the OP states that WMD programs done in 1991 after Gulf War and that no dae later than 1991 is mentioned on that page*

*notes that the other article only shows that there was action immediatley following the Gulf War, after which there is no evidence*

Therefore my point 7:

Quote:

7) Whatever pathetic attempts Iraq made to revive its weapons programs after Gulf War I were wholly ineffective.

RED DAVE

slept2long · 05-11-2003, 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Loren Pechtel
A tidbit to throw into this. The Nth country project. A research endeavour by the US government. Basic idea: Gather up some engineering types that know very little of nuclear physics. Assignment: Design a bomb. They had *NO* access to anything classified. Experiments were simulated (an in some cases actually conducted) by a group of bomb designers. It took them 3 years, in the end they had designed a plutonium bomb similar to what was used in WWII. While the bomb was never built the bomb designers said it would work.

This was in 1964.

That's the name I was looking for a few weeks ago! Thanks for jogging my memory Loren.

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05-10-2003, 07:28 PM	#4
Loren Pechtel Obsessed Contributor Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Not Mayaned Posts: 96,752	A tidbit to throw into this. The Nth country project. A research endeavour by the US government. Basic idea: Gather up some engineering types that know very little of nuclear physics. Assignment: Design a bomb. They had NO access to anything classified. Experiments were simulated (an in some cases actually conducted) by a group of bomb designers. It took them 3 years, in the end they had designed a plutonium bomb similar to what was used in WWII. While the bomb was never built the bomb designers said it would work. This was in 1964.

05-10-2003, 07:47 PM	#5
RED DAVE Banned Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: NYC Posts: 10,532	1) The US has weapons of mass destruction. 2) The US has used them in actual warfare. 3) The US supplied Iraq with the material for poison gas and biological warfare during the Iran-Iraq War, which we encouraged Iraq to begin. 4) The US, essentially, let Iraq know that it would take no action if Iraq invaded Kuwait. 5) We lied about that. 6) Since Gulf War I, Iraq has undertaken no aggressive acts towards any countries. 7) Whatever pathetic attempts Iraq made to revive its weapons programs after Gulf War I were wholly ineffective. 8) Iraq had nothing to do with the destruction of the World Trade Center and the deaths of almost 3000 people therein. 9) At least 150,000 Iraqis were killed during Gulf War I. 10) At least 1,000,000 Iraqi children have died due to sanctions. 11) No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq prior to the Bush invasion, and none have been found since, despite the fact that inspectors and US troops have been wandering around Iraq looking for them. WHY THE FUCK DID WE GO TO WAR WITH THIS MISERABLE, ALREADY-DEFEATED, TOTALLY IMPOVERISHED, COUNTRY? Are you so detached that you can rationalize this mass murder? RED DAVE

05-10-2003, 09:57 PM	#8
Jesus Tap-Dancin' Christ Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Heaven Posts: 6,980	notes that the site linked to in the OP states that WMD programs done in 1991 after Gulf War and that no dae later than 1991 is mentioned on that page notes that the other article only shows that there was action immediatley following the Gulf War, after which there is no evidence

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