MrDarwin

<a href="http://home.austarnet.com.au/stear/default.htm" target="_blank">No Answers in Genesis</a>

[ March 27, 2002: Message edited by: MrDarwin ]</p>

Coragyps

Be sure to look at AiG's "arguments not to use" before you start - 2LoT, is, I think, on there.

A good argument of local interest to Wichitans might be the local geology - the subsurface up there looks like some kind of fancy German torte with bunches of layers - limestone/shale/limestone/shale etc. Sort of a difficult arrangement to make all in one year, since the limes don't have silt intermixed. If you want to use this I can get names and specifics.

Jubal

Creationist types are notoriously difficult to argue with, because they are not out to find the truth...merely satisfy themselves and their peers that you're wrong, even if they have to resort to outright lying. I had a little chat with a pastor a while back; he used the infertile offspring of a donkey and a horse as an example of how no two species can successfully interbreed and, thus, they are not related. I'd like to see him tell that to anyone who owns a wolfdog.

Jack the Bodiless

You could try giving an overview of just how improbable the sequence of the fossil record is.

(...rummage, rummage...)

...Ah, try this:

First, let's pick a VERY large number. I think we can agree that the estimated number of atoms in the Universe is big enough: that's about 10^76 (ten to the power of 76, or a 1 followed by 76 zeroes).

Now let's consider the probability that dinosaur fossils, or the fossils of modern mammals, will all be found on the "correct side" of the boundary which marks the extinction of the dinosaurs, the so-called "K-T Boundary" (i.e. all dinosaurs below, all modern mammals above).

If we assume a 50% chance that any given fossil will be found above or below this line (I'm not sure what the actual ratio is, but it's not really relevant to the conclusion, as we'll soon see), then what are the odds that two fossils will BOTH be found on the correct side? 25%, or 1 in 4. This becomes 1 in 8 for three fossils, 1 in 16 for four etc, with each new fossil doubling the odds against this result happening by chance.

So just how many fossils do you need before the odds against Genesis exceed the number of atoms in the Universe? The answer is 253, because 2 to the power of 253 is about 1.45x10^76. There are THOUSANDS of fossils (e.g. over a million individual bones from the La Brea tar pits alone). NONE have ever been found on the "wrong side" of this line (except in cases where there is obvious geological evidence of "overthrusting" and suchlike).

And that's not all. Fossils don't just appear in two jumbled masses on either side of that line, they appear in a sequence that matches the development of the evolutionary "tree of life". What are the odds of this?

Let's have a look at the dates that a dozen of our ancestors appeared, according to the dating of the earliest known specimens of each. These are the approximate ages from the Encyclopaedia Britannica:

Homo Sapiens: 500,000 years
Homo Erectus: 1.6 million years
Homo Habilis: 2.5 million years
Australopithecus: 8 million years
Primates: 66.4 million years
Mammals: 230 million years
Therapsids (mammal-like reptiles): 286 million years
Amphibians: 374 million years
Fishes: 430 million years
Vertebrates: 540 million years
Multi-Celled Animals: 700 million years
Bacteria: 3.5 billion years

Note that the dates appear in the same order as the sequence of development. The number of different ways in which a number of objects can be arranged is the "factorial" of that number, the number multiplied by each number smaller than itself. For instance, the number of ways of arranging four objects is 4x3x2x1=24 (ABCD, ABDC, ACBD, ACDB, ADBC, ADCB, BACD, BADC, BCAD, BCDA, BDAC, BDCA, CABD, CADB, CBAD, CBDA, CDAB, CDBA, DABC, DACB, DBAC, DBCA, DCAB, DCBA).

For the 12 human ancestors listed above, the odds against these dates appearing in the right order by chance alone is the factorial of 12, which gives odds of about 479 million to one against. And how long a sequence do we need to make the odds exceed the number of atoms in the Universe? 57, because the factorial of 57 is about 4.05x10^76.

And that's not all! We have only considered a correlation between two characteristics (stage of development and fossil date). There is also the correlation between the fossil record and DNA analysis, and the pattern of similarities between living organisms (i.e. the way in which they can be grouped into related kinds etc). What are the odds that ALL of these will agree, even approximately? I'm not even going to try to figure it out!

The odds against Genesis are absolutely mind-boggling. There is NO WAY that these results can be dismissed as a "coincidence" of any kind. The conclusion is inescapable: creationism is extinct!

Jubal

I dunno, that number seems rather small to me...I think that would be a better estimate for the known universe, really. Besides, there's no real estimate for dark matter tonnage.

Coragyps

DougI - Just a thought - don't post anything like a final version here. I expect that AiG monitors this forum, at least, and we wouldn't want to make their damage control too easy! I doubt that they would stray too far from the canned talk, but you never know...

lpetrich

I recommend discussing biogeography, since that is a weak spot in creationism, as the creationists themselves half-concede by being unwilling to discuss it.

tgamble

Any argument you give for YEC or flood geology will just be countered with some tecnical sounding bullshit and/or a god done it explanation.

Best to give examples of their frauds, lies and misinformation. ie, lucy's knee joint, paluxly man tracks, examples of out of context quotes, their misinformation on biochemistry <a href="http://home.mmcable.com/harlequin/evol/HovindLie.html" target="_blank">http://home.mmcable.com/harlequin/evol/HovindLie.html</a> and so forth.

Toss in a few quotes about how evolution MUST be false regardless of evidence from Morris and others and quote from AIGs statement of faith. The last part is a real gem (anything that contradicts their dogma is false by definition).

Bring up the revised quote book (AIG lists darwin and the eye in their arguments not to use, that quote is in their revised quote book. Is that still being sold? If so, play that for all it's worth.) Also bring up Gish and his selling of the pamphet that contained misinformation and his bullfrog proteins. He's not at AIG but it's all the same shit.

As others have suggested, point out examples (especially series) of transitional fossils and psedugenes.

oh yeah, give a few quotes from religious figures rejecting creation "science". that'll help to counter the false claim that evolution is only accepted by atheists.

DougI

Thanks very much for the suggestions. I should be done with the pamphlet in about a week or two.

tgamble

If possible HTMLize it so you can link to other sources on the web that refute and expose other cretinist claims.