Freethought & Rationalism Archive

PopeInTheWoods · 08-12-2003, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Charles Darwin
You compared a hand you are dealt in a game of cards (say a royal flush), which is equally probable with every other possible hand, with the evolution of complexity. But only a few hands will make you a lot of money, and a royal flush is one of them. You were dealt a rare hand in terms of the monetary outcome.

Likewise, the evolution of complexity (even if possible) is rare in terms of the outcome. The vast majority of states gives you a pile of mud, not the DNA code in a functioning cell.

This is the "equiprobable outcome fallacy." While it may be true that each *state* of a system is of equal probability, this does not imply that every *outcome* is equally probability.

The better card-playing analogy to evolution is using a game like draw poker or rummy, where cards are selected to be kept or discarded, and hands that are more valuable to the particular game get built. Even one selected draw in poker greatly increases the odds of a valuable hand, while in rummy a winning hand is inevitable for at least one of the players.

This analogy is limited however, as it implies a conscious "selector", whereas "natural selection" is dependent on how well specific "hands" can duplicate themselves in a given environment.

Andy

edited to add: Again, we're drifting off topic. I suggest a crash course at the Evo/Creo forum.

Kruzkal · 08-12-2003, 08:53 AM

Q: What car do you own?

A: None.

Q: Does a non-existence car counts as a car model?

__________________

Nobody's perfect
I am a nobody
Therefore
I am perfect

fried beef sandwich · 08-12-2003, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kruzkal
Q: What car do you own?

A: None.

Q: Does a non-existence car counts as a car model?

And if so, how many non-existent cars do you own?

Shadowy Man · 08-12-2003, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by fried beef sandwich
And if so, how many non-existent cars do you own?

I own them all. I'm quite the collector.

Jack the Bodiless · 08-13-2003, 02:51 AM

Yeah, he's forced all the poor people in third-world countries to own cars they can't afford, because he took all their cheap, environmentally-friendly nonexistent ones away.

Kruzkal · 08-13-2003, 06:12 AM

Q: What pathetic self help groups are you in?

A: None.

Q: Does a non-existent pathetic self help group counts as a pathethic self help group?

__________________

Assumption is the mother of all F ups

HRG · 08-13-2003, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Charles Darwin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Charles Darwin

It just didn't pass basic sanity tests. For starters, an approaching heavenly body cannot enter into a near-circular orbit without thrusters to slow it down, or some sort of complicated explosion or impact event which serves to slow the incoming object in just the right way. I'm not saying the theory was literally *impossible*, but then again, science is no place for unlikely ideas that are merely "not impossible."

Actually, this is not quite true. The existence of so-called escape orbits in the 4-body problem has been shown rigorously (one body is expelled to infinity, at the expense of the total energy of the remaining bodies). With time reversal, an escape orbit becomes a capture orbit.

Regards,
HRG.

Charles Darwin · 08-16-2003, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shadowy Man

That it discriminates against atheism says that it discriminates against those who have no religion. Yes, that is religious discrimination, and no it does not mean that atheism is a religion.

If atheism is a religion than bald is a hair color.

Hmm, did you switch senses on me? We were talking about the what-if scenario of where the BSA requires members to take an oath of atheism, not against atheism.

Charles Darwin · 08-16-2003, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pangloss
Hmmm... More evidence for the bible. That is an interesting statement. Do you mean evidence that the Bible - the book - actually exists? Or that it (I understand that there is no one all-encompassing set of scrolls calle d'the bible', but I will grant that there are ancient texts that have come to be included in what is called the Bible) contains accurate depictions of historical events?

And what is it, specifically, that "science tells us" about how DNA etc. do not appear to have 'naturalistic origins'? i will be most interested to look into this...

No big mysteries here, but I'm being told to withhold evolution talk for other fora.

Charles Darwin · 08-16-2003, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by enfant terrible
Atheism is a viewpoint (not a "claim" - your English isn't too good, is it?) about religion. That is rather obvious. Just like a statement "I don't have crabs" is about crabs, so is the statement "I don't have any religious beliefs" about religious beliefs. Get it? It does not make it a religion, however, just like absence of crabs doesn't cause itching.

Got it.

08-12-2003, 08:53 AM	#252
Kruzkal Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Void Posts: 77	Question Q: What car do you own? A: None. Q: Does a non-existence car counts as a car model? __________________ Nobody's perfect I am a nobody Therefore I am perfect

08-13-2003, 06:12 AM	#256
Kruzkal Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Void Posts: 77	New Question Q: What pathetic self help groups are you in? A: None. Q: Does a non-existent pathetic self help group counts as a pathethic self help group? __________________ Assumption is the mother of all F ups

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08-13-2003, 02:51 AM	#255
Jack the Bodiless Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: UK Posts: 5,815	Yeah, he's forced all the poor people in third-world countries to own cars they can't afford, because he took all their cheap, environmentally-friendly nonexistent ones away.

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