David Bowden

I think RNG's speculations are spot-on. A manned launch does seem like just a prestige thing at first - "Look! We're in space too!"

I don't discount the symbolic importance of this for the Chinese. But surely China's not dumping a lot of resources into manned spaceflight just to do it - and they show no signs of developing a reusable launch vehicle like the shuttle. And using rockets to lob satellites into orbit for commerce or defense doesn't require human spaceflight experience.

So they have to have a long-term strategy that involves a human presence in space. I can only think that a space station and/or manned flight beyond a copycat moon landing is in the works. But anything they might have in mind should spark competition from the US, and probably Russia, and perhaps other space agencies.

If they aim for a manned and semi-commercialized space station soon enough, they might soon have better and/or bigger artificial real estate than the ISS - especially if they use a higher-capacity launch vehicle than our shuttle, and use a more modular design. If China works in a tourism angle along with basic science and commercial work, they'll get a lot of launch/ spaceflight/ habitat experience - and a lot of revenue, something the ISS lacks.

That sort of space race could be even more prestigious than the 1960s moon race - who'll be first in customer satisfaction, and the first to develop technologies capable of supporting long-term human activity anywhere in the solar system? That sort of question would wake up the US for sure, and should jump-start the privatized space industry.

The clear winner in the space station race might well be the first to set up shop permanently on another planet, or it might inspire the loser(s) to try and beat the winner to the next level. Either way, China should be a good influence on space development.

-Wanderer (who, along with his wife, plans to buy a ride to space - after we get the Sears card paid off...)

[ May 24, 2002: Message edited by: wide-eyed wanderer ]</p>

sullster

Get real everyone. Why do you think China wants to get involved with space travel? To put guys on Mars? Pssshaw!

If you can manufacture a vehicle which can go to the moon, you can manufacture one which will carry a nuclear weapon to North America. The Chinese are planning to be the next super-power and that is one of the things you must have in your super-power resume. If you can nuke anyone in the world, you are part of the club.

Just think, if there are Chinese astronauts on the moon someday, there could be a Chinese ICBM incinerating US cities too.

Call me paranoid, reactionary, what have you. I am being realistic. The USA/USSR space race was as much motivated by increased ICBM technology as it was lunar gadgets.

Abacus

You are absolutely correct. This is one of the unfortunate spinoffs. Or maybe manned space travel is a benign spinoff of ICBM technology.

Of course, if you will remember, China has already orbited unmanned spacecraft several times. Theoretically, they could already rain nukes down on us.

Mendeh

I don't buy this. Surely if China only wanted to find a way of transporting a bomb over to America, there'd be any number of ways a damn sight cheaper than finding a way to land on the moon first?

sullster

The ability of China to nuke America and Europe,(UK too), would have the greatest effect on Asia. By having the ability to intimidate the West, China could dominate Asia. Japan would be forced into China's orbit for example. Maybe all this will be for the best as Western dominance over Asia will end totally after a two century run.

As for moon walking Chinese, I don't see it, they lie. The Chinese are an ancient civilization and far more sophisticated in their long range political thinking than any Western culture. This is a country with a billion people and always on the verge of starvation. How can they justify spending millions on this type of activity? It is a smokescreen I say. The desire is power.

The USA dominated in space for world political reasons. The idea that we did all that for the advance of science is a dream. True, science has benefited enormously, but the money was not given only for esoteric intellectual reasons. Men walking on the moon was an extravagant display and was essentially a middle finger raised to the USSR.

Neil Armstrong should have said:"One giant leap for the USA and Eat S**T USSR!!!!"

Answerer

Well, I see no harm for China to become a superpower as it could held America's power in check. Besides, even Chinese did all the space programs for the sake of power, they also did it for an another good reason which is self-defence.
With U.S 's nuclear power and missiles defensive shield, the Chinese government began to feel that they are vulnerable, therefore, they needed to do something to increase their own technology and military power.
So as long as U.S government doesn't do anything that is stupid in the future, I see why all of you have to fear nukes running down from your sky.

Krieger

I agree. In the future I'd like too see an international mission to Mars -- something the whole species could be proud of.

Daydreamer

Actually, I think from a logistic PoV, our 30 year 'lull' in Aerospace may have been almost necessary - without the multi-year un-manned missions we've launched we probably wouldn't have the raw data we'd need to plan such bases.

Tehehehhehehehe!

A whole new planet for us Evo/Eco Biologists (and in my case biologist-in-training) to toy with!

Igor! My white lab coat! My copy of Kim Stanely Robinson's Red Mars trilogy!

pescifish

Aaah, you are right in line with the new head of NASA's thinking about the next 20 years as well.

Red Mars trilogy kicks science fiction butt!

Liquidrage

We don't need a space race.
What we need is for the leadership of NASA to pull their head's out of their ass's and start using their <a href="http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget/fy2000/sheets/sum_10.xls" target="_blank">13 Billion dollar annual budget</a> meaningfully.

Currently they just <a href="http://spacelink.nasa.gov/NASA.Projects/Human.Exploration.and.Development.of.Space/Human.Space.Flight/International.Space.Station/.index.html" target="_blank">piss</a> the <a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/database/MasterCatalog?sc=NHORIZONS" target="_blank">money</a> away on <a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/prop_missions.html#europa" target="_blank">projects</a> that do <a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/mars_2003_05.html" target="_blank">not</a> lay foundations for future projects.

The ISS is close to what NASA needs to be doing. It will be great for 0 gravity testing of such important issues like how frogs fuck and how bacteria grows. It is not truely meaningfull though because it will not help future explorations. It is a very expensive reaseach vessel and not much else.

What I feel NASA needs to do is to put the majority of it's budget over the long haul to a truely meaningfull project that would be the foundation for future explotation.
An example would be establishing a lunar colony.

A permanment lunar colony could be established for under 50 billion USD.

Establishing a Lunar colony should have been the priority for some time now.

NASA is wasting a ton of money on Mars and other much more distant objects. It is not a secret that it would be much easier launching future projects from the low gravity lunar surface. If we established a lunar base, Mars would follow. It is common sense to *leap frog* through the cosmos. NASA just isn't prone to common sense these days.

[ May 26, 2002: Message edited by: Liquidrage ]</p>