Bill

The latest ABC News / Washington Post Poll shows that Bush's job approval rating is at its lowest point since 9/11, but the numbers are very split along partisan lines.

== Bill

JGL53

This is good news. I also read an analysis recently (I can't remember where now) that even though Bush, according to the latest polls, is supported by 58 %, he is far from having a lock on the electoral vote, since his supporters are concentrated in certain states.

dcwolf

Interesting point. Was it this webpage? http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

Lots of republican states on that map, but a lot of things have happened since the article was written in May.

If you apply the results of the abc poll, and this conglomerate graph to the electoral distribution, maybe some of those non-solid states could be leaning more toward Dean now? That would bring Dean awfully close to Bush in the electoral college.

Bill

Personally, I keep my eye on the polling numbers of the current Bush vis-a-vis those of his father, 12 years ago. On that scale, the current Bush is several percentage points below his father's track, and that too bodes well for the Democrat nominee, so long as said nominee is basically "electable" (unlike Gore....).

== Bill

jman0904

The electoral college should be like the NCAA. States found of inproprieties should be suspended from future voting. Example: Under this new governing body (Nat'l Commit. of the Elec. Coll. ?), Florida's restrictions would include the nullification of their 2004 Presidential Election Electoral College vote.
General Pop. vote would still be counted of course.

Shake

This doesn't come as much of a surprise to me. Early in Gulf War II, I was saying that things would have to go amazingly well for any sort of success in Iraq to translate into votes in '04. I faulted W with not learning from GB Sr.'s failure to turn a (more successful and supported) war into election victory. Again, the Democrats will rally around the old, "It's the economy, stupid" cry. ABC News the other day said that unemployment is at a high again. I'm not sure there's enough time to turn the economy around enough for it to factor into helping Bush get reelected.

I'm hoping that the 2000 election debacle will help to boost voter turnout in '04. Maybe they're just more vocal, but you hear so many folks saying how Bush wasn't elected (he was IMHO), but how many of them got out and voted. If they want to avoid a repeat, they'd better get out there and do something about it.

Arken

This is why I'm starting to get more and more terrified that his people are up to something so disgusting and vicious that we're all going to be in tears come November 5.

RED DAVE

Watch these figures. Should Bush's numbers continue to dip, beware of a deparate move: e.g., invasion of Iran. These figures should be constantly updated on this board.

RED DAVE

Adrammalech

Most likely scenario:

October 2004:

The army "stumbles upon" a huge munitions depot filled to the brim with nuclear warheads, anthrax, smallpox, ebola, botulinin toxin, and sarin gas.

Fast forward:
Bush wins election by landslide

enfant terrible

How? You show people that their votes don't matter, and expect them to be more willing to vote???

It isn't a matter of opinion, but of hard facts. He wasn't.