Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Shadowy Man · 08-06-2003, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by echidna

You still haven't explained why, with the planets' orbits so well understood, this methodology is incapable of predicting future earthquakes instead of explaining past ones. It's an entirely logical expectation.

True, that would be useful, but what I would like to see is a chart like he made fo the Kobe quake for every major earthquake in the world for the past 10 years (all the dates of times of which are well known) and see how many of those occur at spikes in his charts.

Volker.Doormann · 08-06-2003, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shadowy Man
... what I would like to see is a chart like he made fo the Kobe quake for every major earthquake in the world for the past 10 years (all the dates of times of which are well known) and see how many of those occur at spikes in his charts.

I think it is only a question of money, if one would like to see something.

Arken · 08-06-2003, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Volker.Doormann
I think it is only a question of money, if one would like to see something.

How did I see that coming?

Must have been in the stars.

Shadowy Man · 08-06-2003, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Volker.Doormann
I think it is only a question of money, if one would like to see something.

How much money could it possibly take? You already have a computer program that produces the plots, right? You just need to get the list of dates for the earthquakes. You can probably find that on the web using Google in about 15 minutes.

Then you can show a strong correlation between the position of the planets and major earthquakes around the world. I'm sure there are plenty of scientists who would like to see that. Then all one need do is look for the causal connection.

Volker.Doormann · 08-06-2003, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shadowy Man
You already have a computer program that produces the plots, right? You just need to get the list of dates for the earthquakes. You can probably find that on the web using Google in about 15 minutes.

Then you can show a strong correlation between the position of the planets and major earthquakes around the world. I'm sure there are plenty of scientists who would like to see that. Then all one need do is look for the causal connection.

I'm sure you have a computer program, that can calculate planetary positions. You have an algorithm from the graphs to generate the data. You have a computer program to plot the data. Great earth quakes you can find from neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/significant.html. Then you can show a strong correlation between the position of the planets and major earthquakes around the world. I'm sure there are plenty of scientists who would like to see that. Then all one need do is look for the causal connection.

Volker.Doormann · 08-06-2003, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shadowy Man

echidna: "You still haven't explained why, with the planets' orbits so well understood, this methodology is incapable of predicting future earthquakes instead of explaining past ones. It's an entirely logical expectation."

True, ...

The people of reason and logic I know, do not expect that a PC program outputs 4 weeks after an earthquake different data as 4 weeks prior to that quake using the same known source text.

Godot · 08-06-2003, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Volker.Doormann
The people of reason and logic I know, do not expect that a PC program outputs 4 weeks after an earthquake different data as 4 weeks prior to that quake using the same known source text.

A post hoc explanation of events is an attempt to justify the validity of astrology through the shoehorning of data into preconceived notions.

There is a really big difference between producing data to fit your hypothesis and adjusting your hypothesis to fit your data. One of these is a validated scientific process, the other is pseudoscientifc gobbledy-gook. Care to guess which is which?

Volker.Doormann · 08-06-2003, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Godot
Volker.Doormann: "The people of reason and logic I know, do not expect that a PC program outputs 4 weeks after an earthquake different data as 4 weeks prior to that quake using the same known source text."

A post hoc explanation of events is an attempt to justify the validity of astrology through the shoehorning of data into preconceived notions.

There is a really big difference between producing data to fit your hypothesis and adjusting your hypothesis to fit your data. One of these is a validated scientific process, the other is pseudoscientifc gobbledy-gook.

From my post it is obvious, that the data are produced with a PC program using a to you known checkable source code, are independent of the time of generating; it outputs the very same data all the time; for time spans - for example month - in past and/or in the future (!)

There is a simple arithmetic relation to verify, nothing else. Please verify the given data with the given algorithm, argue on the subject, for example on the significance of the relation of planetary angle distances and earthquakes, and stop your loud fantasies about I fitting data. You do assert, that I fit data, that i adjust something, in reply to my post, without any proof or need.
Strange understanding of science. I have learned, that verificition is an adequate tool in science to examine phenomena on significance. In this case it needs a simple verification using given math and logic.

Volker.Doormann · 08-07-2003, 02:35 AM

In the beginning of this month, I have given some answers to Patrick, who was interest in engineering the sun sign of a baby. In addition to that, I have given a hint to him, because I know, he is interested on earthquakes, etc. : � BTW. Around the date of 2003.08.27 there are some geometric planetary geocentric configurations relating to energeticful crash's and earthquakes.� I have given him this hint, because it seems, that some special geometric configurations of the sky objects of the solar system, have coincidences with such events. This is based on some known significant correlations to me, one can verify by science methods. To inform some skeptics here, I have given examples of such significant relations through a simple algorithm, which can calculate an arbitrary index value of such geometries, and through some graphs showing this through the coincidence in time of a high index value and a major earthquake. AFAIR, no one, who is reading here, has replied he/she likes to verify that stuff seriously using scientific methods, what is mainly math.
Because of this truth, I close on this. Thank you.

Volker

08-07-2003, 08:52 PM

It would have been more timely if I'd found this a few days ago...

Quote:

Mars' extraordinarily close approach to Earth will culminate on 27 August 2003, when the red planet will come within 35 million miles (or 56 million kilometers) of Earth, its nearest approach to us in almost 60,000 years. At that time, Mars should appear to be approximately 85 times brighter in the sky than it does ordinarily.

http://www.snopes.com/science/mars.asp

By the way, disaster of some type looms in +/-20 days for those keeping watch.

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08-07-2003, 02:35 AM	#189
Volker.Doormann Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: -- Posts: 622	In the beginning of this month, I have given some answers to Patrick, who was interest in engineering the sun sign of a baby. In addition to that, I have given a hint to him, because I know, he is interested on earthquakes, etc. : � BTW. Around the date of 2003.08.27 there are some geometric planetary geocentric configurations relating to energeticful crash's and earthquakes.� I have given him this hint, because it seems, that some special geometric configurations of the sky objects of the solar system, have coincidences with such events. This is based on some known significant correlations to me, one can verify by science methods. To inform some skeptics here, I have given examples of such significant relations through a simple algorithm, which can calculate an arbitrary index value of such geometries, and through some graphs showing this through the coincidence in time of a high index value and a major earthquake. AFAIR, no one, who is reading here, has replied he/she likes to verify that stuff seriously using scientific methods, what is mainly math. Because of this truth, I close on this. Thank you. Volker

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