Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Marduk · 01-19-2002, 07:17 AM

"What evidence would disuade you?

Let's see;

No reports of seeing aliens
No reports of seeing alien craft
No government investigations or secrecy of the topic
No reports from pilots, astronauts, radar operators, police, air traffic controllers, etc.
No ancient legends or drawings of 'the gods' comming to Earth from the 'heavens'
No photos or film of odd flying craft
No government officials comming out and saying yes it's true.

[ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: marduck ]

Ted Hoffman · 01-19-2002, 08:41 AM

Ism Schism
Ok, there is no evidence, just stories.
Lets try to establish some reasonable doubt:

Why would the ETs come to planet earth?
To Mine for copper as Alan Alford suggested in his book Gods of The New Millenium?

To pick some of us for experiment?

Why havent they tried to establish open contact ? maybe they are not social?

How fast do they travel? From which planet could they be from? Planet X(Nibiru)?

could they be from our galaxy?

How come no sightings have been done in Africa? Dont planes exist in Africa? Do the UFOs require sophisticated equipment for sighting them?

[ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: jaliet ]

lpetrich · 01-19-2002, 10:33 AM

marduck:
first Rare Earth;
I don't buy it, our star is of a common class in this Galaxy, I don't think there is anything unique about its formation or of our solar system, ...

LP:
So far, so good. But there is still a problem in getting from Earthlike planets to life. There is still a gap between the results of prebiotic-chemistry experiments and the earliest extrapolated RNA-world organism, but part of the difficulty may be the difficulty of re-creating oceanic hot springs in a lab.

marduck:
which brings us to the Fermi Parodox;
they may already be here, which is claimed
they may even have put us here and have been observing for the last 50,000 years (the ancient astonauts as the 'gods' of old theory, homosapiens; a genetic experiment to produce intelligent life from apelike homonids, Adam & Eve a working breeding pair)

LP:
The Adam-and-Eve story is a fairy tale, pure and simple. Why create a male first? Why not a female? And why Adam create from dirt? The chemical composition is all wrong. And a rib would be too small compared to a full-grown Eve.

I give credit to Genesis 1 for getting the late appearance of humanity correct; Genesis 2 is too obviously a fairy tale.

A genetic-engineering experiment would not start with only two individuals, but would instead work with a larger population.

marduck:
they may not find us interesting enough, or may find us too violent, paranoid and superstitious to make themselves known formally.

LP:
Interesting possibilities.

marduck:
They may be scouting Earth as a place to relocate after their home Planet went belly up, lots of reasons not to officially say hello.

LP:
But why live on a planet??? Why not live in space colonies???

marduck:
No reports of seeing aliens

LP:
Some of them are nightmares, some of them are fantasies, and some of them are just plain hoaxes.

Why hasn't anyone ever taken any clear pictures or video of these? Remember that people have taken video of a wide variety of odd events, like the first kamikaze airliner to make a hit on September 11 last year.

marduck:
No reports of seeing alien craft

LP:
These turn out to be either sightings of various known phenomena, such as the planet Venus, or fantasies and hoaxes.

marduck:
No government investigations or secrecy of the topic

LP:
This was because of concern that there might be secret Russian airplanes on the loose.

marduck:
No reports from pilots, astronauts, radar operators, police, air traffic controllers, etc.

LP:
Nearly all of these are sightings of distant lights and the like.

marduck:
No ancient legends or drawings of 'the gods' comming to Earth from the 'heavens'

LP:
Fantasies, pure and simple.

marduck:
No photos or film of odd flying craft

LP:
Is there even one that is not a hoax or a picture of something known? The UFO field has had a superabundance of trick photography masquerading as "evidence", with the only "real" pictures being of unresolved objects.

marduck:
No government officials comming out and saying yes it's true.

LP:
And...

Marduk · 01-19-2002, 02:35 PM

"The Adam-and-Eve story is a fairy tale, pure and simple. Why create a male first? Why not a female? And why Adam create from dirt? The chemical composition is all wrong. And a rib would be too small compared to a full-grown Eve."

You are taking my comments much too literally, I meant Adam & Eve as a reference to the first 2 homosapiens that were fully functional, I didn't mean to imply the aliens made them from dirt or ribs the story being a symbolic one, some of the Sumerian creation stories (the creation of humanity by Enki) tell of how some of the early humans were sterile, blind, incontinent or had other problems, took awhile to get them right, unlike the Hebrew story.
I have not seen every photo and video ever shot of a UFO, and I'm sure many are fake or are pictures of airplanes, but not all, the ones I've seen from Mexico, Belgium and Israel are quite impressive.
Jaliet has a point, I don't know why there are none in Africa, maybe they like Mexico better.
My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule. Considering for how long and how many of these sightings have occurred.
The fanatic 'debunk at all cost no matter how silly' business is what I find most entertaining.
The Anything But Aliens Mantra.
If they turn out not to be aliens, no skin off my nose, if they are, so what. If it were not for the 'denile & rididule' order from the US Government this topic would have disapeared long ago, all it would have taken was some openness & honesty, a simple "I don't know" or "maybe they are" statement years ago would have put it to rest. Ha Ha You reap what you sow, I will chuckel for now, at least until the "Harvest" begins. Mwaahahahahaha!

[ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: marduck ]

Jayhawker Soule · 01-20-2002, 05:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by marduck:
"What evidence would disuade you?

Let's see;

No reports of seeing aliens
No reports of seeing alien craft
No government investigations or secrecy of the topic
No reports from pilots, astronauts, radar operators, police, air traffic controllers, etc.
No ancient legends or drawings of 'the gods' comming to Earth from the 'heavens'
No photos or film of odd flying craft
No government officials comming out and saying yes it's true.

[ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: marduck ]

No, the absence of proof is not proof of absence. Again, what evidence would disuade you?

Quote:

My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule.

Really? Very well. Permit me a couple of additional questions ...

What do you believe?
Would you apply this same open-mindedness to such areas as ESP, Astrology, and Ghosts?
Have you actually read the Ward/Brownlee book?
On what basis do you reject Mayr's arguments?

Finally, as I recall, the topic is: "UFO: Fact or Fiction?" Do you assert that it is a fact?

Jayhawker Soule · 01-20-2002, 01:01 PM

My guess is that most of you have read Popper on Falsifiability, but I think it's worth reiterating.

Quote:

Science, Pseudo-Science, and Falsifiability
Karl Popper, 1962

The problem which troubled me at the time was neither, "When is a theory true?" nor, "When is a theory acceptable?" My problem was different. I wished to distinguish between science and pseudo-science; knowing very well that science often errs, and that pseudo-science may happen to stumble on the truth. ...

It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory—if we look for confirmations.
Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory—an event which would have refuted the theory.
Every "good" scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.
A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a vice.
Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability; some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.
Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of "corroborating evidence.")
Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers—for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by re-interpreting the theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a "conventionalist twist" or a "conventionalist stratagem.")

... Thus the problem which I tried to solve by proposing the criterion of falsifiability was neither a problem of meaningfulness or significance, nor a problem of truth or acceptability. It was the problem of drawing a line (as well as this can be done) between the statements, or systems of statements, of the empirical sciences, and all other statements—whether they are of a religious or of a metaphysical character, or simply pseudo-scientific. Years later—it must have been in 1928 or 1929—I called this first problem of mine the "problem of demarcation." The criterion of falsifiability is a solution to this problem of demarcation, for it says that statements or systems of statements, in order to be ranked as scientific, must be capable of conflicting with possible, or conceivable, observations

From the site:

<a href="http://karws.gso.uri.edu/JFK/Critical_thinking/Science_pseudo_falsifiability.html" target="_blank">Here</a>

Marduk · 01-20-2002, 03:21 PM

My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule.

Really? Very well. Permit me a couple of additional questions ...
 What do you believe?
 I thought I was clear I believe that some UFO�s may be of extraterrestrial origin, since I have never seen a UFO or it�s occupants that�s all I can say, however if I did there would be no point in telling anyone for the reasons stated, and some have tried, I would not repeat their mistake, I�d say Hi welcome to Earth, it�s quite a dump you�d better go home.
 Would you apply this same open-mindedness to such areas as ESP, Astrology, and Ghosts? Astrology, no, ESP and Ghosts yes, the shear volume of claims reported suggest there is a phenomena of sorts involved to be looked at, at the very least important data on the workings of the brain may be obtained, Astrology has already been debunked to my satisfaction.
 Have you actually read the Ward/Brownlee book?
 It is still on my ever growing pile of to read books
 On what basis do you reject Mayr's arguments?
 Thought I answered this already in my last post, to date the data seems to be that a star of our class produced at least one planet with intelligent life, (I use the term loosely) there our millions of stars in that class, I think it is more reasonable to say that all stars of this class produce intelligent life rather than, only this one produced intelligent life and all the others are dead. Soon we will be able to see Earthsize planets orbiting other stars, then maybe I�ll change my mind. Maybe it is personal prejudice, that �we are the only ones� theory reeks of religion too much for my taste.


Finally, as I recall, the topic is: "UFO: Fact or Fiction?" Do you assert that it is a fact?
UFO�s are a fact, people have seen flying objects of unknown origin, whether or not they are piloted by aliens is unclear, I lean toward yes but would not bet too large an amount on it.
I understand why scientists are leery of this subject, there is nothing substantial to look at other then often blurry photos or tapes of uncertain origin.

cricket · 01-20-2002, 03:35 PM

Quote:

My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule.

I do.

cricket · 01-20-2002, 03:39 PM

Quote:

I understand why scientists are leery of this subject, there is nothing substantial to look at other then often blurry photos or tapes of uncertain origin.

It's not just a lack of evidence (though there's certainly a lack of evidence). It's easy to see that "witnesses" and those who believe them are steering themselves toward the conclusion they prefer.

They're delighted to think aliens are visiting. And I understand that! but it doesn't make it any more likely to be true.

cricket · 01-20-2002, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Maybe it is personal prejudice, that ‘we are the only ones’ theory reeks of religion too much for my taste.

Who said "we are the only ones" ???

Who knows if we're the only ones? I'd love to learn we're not. We probably aren't. But we ARE the only ones right here right now. It's ridiculous to believe there are 'aliens' here now that just so happen to look like us, but with smaller bodies and bigger eyes.

(What a coincidence!)

01-19-2002, 07:17 AM	#31
Marduk Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: the 10th planet Posts: 5,065	"What evidence would disuade you? Let's see; No reports of seeing aliens No reports of seeing alien craft No government investigations or secrecy of the topic No reports from pilots, astronauts, radar operators, police, air traffic controllers, etc. No ancient legends or drawings of 'the gods' comming to Earth from the 'heavens' No photos or film of odd flying craft No government officials comming out and saying yes it's true. [ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: marduck ]</p>

01-19-2002, 08:41 AM	#32
Ted Hoffman Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: "" Posts: 3,863	Ism Schism Ok, there is no evidence, just stories. Lets try to establish some reasonable doubt: Why would the ETs come to planet earth? To Mine for copper as Alan Alford suggested in his book Gods of The New Millenium? To pick some of us for experiment? Why havent they tried to establish open contact ? maybe they are not social? How fast do they travel? From which planet could they be from? Planet X(Nibiru)? could they be from our galaxy? How come no sightings have been done in Africa? Dont planes exist in Africa? Do the UFOs require sophisticated equipment for sighting them? [ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: jaliet ]</p>

01-19-2002, 02:35 PM	#34
Marduk Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: the 10th planet Posts: 5,065	"The Adam-and-Eve story is a fairy tale, pure and simple. Why create a male first? Why not a female? And why Adam create from dirt? The chemical composition is all wrong. And a rib would be too small compared to a full-grown Eve." You are taking my comments much too literally, I meant Adam & Eve as a reference to the first 2 homosapiens that were fully functional, I didn't mean to imply the aliens made them from dirt or ribs the story being a symbolic one, some of the Sumerian creation stories (the creation of humanity by Enki) tell of how some of the early humans were sterile, blind, incontinent or had other problems, took awhile to get them right, unlike the Hebrew story. I have not seen every photo and video ever shot of a UFO, and I'm sure many are fake or are pictures of airplanes, but not all, the ones I've seen from Mexico, Belgium and Israel are quite impressive. Jaliet has a point, I don't know why there are none in Africa, maybe they like Mexico better. My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule. Considering for how long and how many of these sightings have occurred. The fanatic 'debunk at all cost no matter how silly' business is what I find most entertaining. The Anything But Aliens Mantra. If they turn out not to be aliens, no skin off my nose, if they are, so what. If it were not for the 'denile & rididule' order from the US Government this topic would have disapeared long ago, all it would have taken was some openness & honesty, a simple "I don't know" or "maybe they are" statement years ago would have put it to rest. Ha Ha You reap what you sow, I will chuckel for now, at least until the "Harvest" begins. Mwaahahahahaha! [ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: marduck ]</p>

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01-19-2002, 10:33 AM	#33
lpetrich Contributor Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Lebanon, OR, USA Posts: 16,829	marduck: first Rare Earth; I don't buy it, our star is of a common class in this Galaxy, I don't think there is anything unique about its formation or of our solar system, ... LP: So far, so good. But there is still a problem in getting from Earthlike planets to life. There is still a gap between the results of prebiotic-chemistry experiments and the earliest extrapolated RNA-world organism, but part of the difficulty may be the difficulty of re-creating oceanic hot springs in a lab. marduck: which brings us to the Fermi Parodox; they may already be here, which is claimed they may even have put us here and have been observing for the last 50,000 years (the ancient astonauts as the 'gods' of old theory, homosapiens; a genetic experiment to produce intelligent life from apelike homonids, Adam & Eve a working breeding pair) LP: The Adam-and-Eve story is a fairy tale, pure and simple. Why create a male first? Why not a female? And why Adam create from dirt? The chemical composition is all wrong. And a rib would be too small compared to a full-grown Eve. I give credit to Genesis 1 for getting the late appearance of humanity correct; Genesis 2 is too obviously a fairy tale. A genetic-engineering experiment would not start with only two individuals, but would instead work with a larger population. marduck: they may not find us interesting enough, or may find us too violent, paranoid and superstitious to make themselves known formally. LP: Interesting possibilities. marduck: They may be scouting Earth as a place to relocate after their home Planet went belly up, lots of reasons not to officially say hello. LP: But why live on a planet??? Why not live in space colonies??? marduck: No reports of seeing aliens LP: Some of them are nightmares, some of them are fantasies, and some of them are just plain hoaxes. Why hasn't anyone ever taken any clear pictures or video of these? Remember that people have taken video of a wide variety of odd events, like the first kamikaze airliner to make a hit on September 11 last year. marduck: No reports of seeing alien craft LP: These turn out to be either sightings of various known phenomena, such as the planet Venus, or fantasies and hoaxes. marduck: No government investigations or secrecy of the topic LP: This was because of concern that there might be secret Russian airplanes on the loose. marduck: No reports from pilots, astronauts, radar operators, police, air traffic controllers, etc. LP: Nearly all of these are sightings of distant lights and the like. marduck: No ancient legends or drawings of 'the gods' comming to Earth from the 'heavens' LP: Fantasies, pure and simple. marduck: No photos or film of odd flying craft LP: Is there even one that is not a hoax or a picture of something known? The UFO field has had a superabundance of trick photography masquerading as "evidence", with the only "real" pictures being of unresolved objects. marduck: No government officials comming out and saying yes it's true. LP: And...

01-20-2002, 03:21 PM	#37
Marduk Veteran Member Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: the 10th planet Posts: 5,065	My real point is not so much that I believe these UFO's are Alien craft so much as that I just don't feel its such an outlandish claim worthy of all the ridicule. Really? Very well. Permit me a couple of additional questions ...  What do you believe?  I thought I was clear I believe that some UFO�s may be of extraterrestrial origin, since I have never seen a UFO or it�s occupants that�s all I can say, however if I did there would be no point in telling anyone for the reasons stated, and some have tried, I would not repeat their mistake, I�d say Hi welcome to Earth, it�s quite a dump you�d better go home.  Would you apply this same open-mindedness to such areas as ESP, Astrology, and Ghosts? Astrology, no, ESP and Ghosts yes, the shear volume of claims reported suggest there is a phenomena of sorts involved to be looked at, at the very least important data on the workings of the brain may be obtained, Astrology has already been debunked to my satisfaction.  Have you actually read the Ward/Brownlee book?  It is still on my ever growing pile of to read books  On what basis do you reject Mayr's arguments?  Thought I answered this already in my last post, to date the data seems to be that a star of our class produced at least one planet with intelligent life, (I use the term loosely) there our millions of stars in that class, I think it is more reasonable to say that all stars of this class produce intelligent life rather than, only this one produced intelligent life and all the others are dead. Soon we will be able to see Earthsize planets orbiting other stars, then maybe I�ll change my mind. Maybe it is personal prejudice, that �we are the only ones� theory reeks of religion too much for my taste.  Finally, as I recall, the topic is: "UFO: Fact or Fiction?" Do you assert that it is a fact? UFO�s are a fact, people have seen flying objects of unknown origin, whether or not they are piloted by aliens is unclear, I lean toward yes but would not bet too large an amount on it. I understand why scientists are leery of this subject, there is nothing substantial to look at other then often blurry photos or tapes of uncertain origin.

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