Freethought & Rationalism ArchiveThe archives are read only. |
08-20-2002, 06:30 AM | #61 |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Yes, I have dyslexia. Sue me.
Posts: 6,508
|
One-eyed, you're absolutely correct, of course, but Tercel cannot concede the truth, so, he won't.
Where in Eugene, by the way? I used to live up on the hill above Laurelwood golf course, way back in the day. Went to South before hightailing it out of that strange little bubble of a burg. |
08-20-2002, 07:54 AM | #62 |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2002
Location: US and UK
Posts: 846
|
Nice to see that understanding of anthropic arguments has advanced somewhat in these parts.
Shame to see fine tuning still being advanced in this context. I'll repost a variation on the lottery argument here with commentary, since I find the lottery argument as it stands confuses more than it illuminates. I think the lottery argument as presented is too misleading. I've tried to think of a better one and come up with this. It's well known that there are far more possible than actual credit card numbers (analogy - many 'possible' universes could not support life - for the sake of argument). Let's say one day a man turns up at your door and gives you one million dollars 'because your credit card number matches that generated by his machine". He says no more. Which of the following strikes you as the most likely explanation? His machine generates numbers completely at random, was run once, and spat out yours. You might reflect that this was a very unlikely occurrence - the most likely being that the number produced was not valid and the guy kept his money. His machine generates numbers completely at random, is run once an hour, and every valid number holder gets 1 million dollars. You might reflect that eventually somebody was bound to win, and it would be tempting but false for the winner to think there was something special about them. His machine generates only random valid credit card numbers, was run once, and spat out yours. You might reflect that whoever won might be tempted to think they had been specially selected, but would be wrong. As above. After all, somebody would win inevitably. He was misleading you, he knew your credit card number and wanted to give you one million dollars. You might get down on your knees and thanks him for this wondrous gift. My point is that, given the information presented, you aren't warranted in asserting any one of those solutions to be correct (Fine tuning argument fails). However, if you were subsequently trying to construct a theory of how the number generating machine operated, you might bear in mind the likelihood of your being in a position to do it given the scenarios above. Note that only people visited by the man even know of the possible existence of the machine. Arguments about 'what makes life significant' in the scientific context are like saying (in the analogy) 'why the man and not the dog with floppy ears that lives at the same house, or the teapot with a frog design' - completely missing the point. |
08-20-2002, 09:23 AM | #63 | |||
Regular Member
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Georgia
Posts: 216
|
Quote:
Quote:
No. I am saying that God is an “ad hoc explanation” of the evidence. I am saying that we DON’T have adequate evidence of how the universe came into being to address these questions so any attempt to address them is ONLY speculation. Whether we speculate a God or something natural is probably a result of our prior bias. Quote:
Why do you consider the multiple-universe hypothesis unlikely? I will address why I consider the God hypothesis unlikely. My main objection is that God fails the same test of design as the universe. I have spent the last few years studying mind and intelligence. I am flabbergasted by the complexity of the human brain. Our intelligence is dependant on a balance between a huge number of immensely complicated systems. If one system goes out then it will often affect numerous other systems. Small changes can make the difference between consciousness and unconsciousness. The odds of these systems spontaneously occurring would seem to fail the fine-tuning argument all by itself. Intelligence is an implicit assumption in the design hypothesis. Why would we think the intelligence of God was less complicated than our own? The design argument would require God to also be designed because it is extremely improbable for God to spontaneously occur. We are right back to where we started. God is not a solution to this problem because he leads right back to the same question. This is not a new problem as I sure everyone here knows. It is one of the fundamental questions that has been asked for ages. However, it is a significant reason that I lost my faith in Christianity. I have never been able to find a decent answer, and it is not for lack of looking. If you can answer this question, Tercel, I will be truly appreciative. If God created the universe, who created God? It’s a child’s question, but one that I can’t answer. If complexity requires a creator, God requires a creator. God must be more complicated than the universe that we see if he can design the universe that we see. If the God has always existed, why can’t the universe have always existed? If the universe is fine tuned, surely God is more so. Sometimes things don’t make sense. We have evidence for the existence of one universe because we are in it. We lack evidence for other universes or for God. How did our universe get to be the way it is? I don’t know; it just is. I can speculate all kinds of answers. However, they are all speculation, God included. As I was trying to demonstrate in my previous post, in the past there have been many things that we didn’t understand. Examples include: wind, gravity, stars, and lightning. Some people choose supernatural answers. Some people choose natural answers. So far the questions that we have answered solidly have all proven those that choose natural answers to be correct. Why should I expect the origins of the universe to be any different than the origins of lightning? |
|||
08-20-2002, 09:51 AM | #64 |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: USA
Posts: 4,635
|
You are right not to "get it", because it is a
meaningless idea. However, it does have everything to do with the "lottery falacy". Your life would be completely different without certain specific events. You do not feel this requires explaination "why", because the possible alternative lives would be no less meaningful than your current one. People who feel that there current life is "more meaningful" than any alternative do feel like their life must have a reason "why". The "fine tuning" argument only impresses people who fail to realize that any actual outcome has no more "meaning" than all the other possibilities. Meaning is entirely arbitrary, subjective, and a human mental experience, not a property of events themselves. When people subjectively feel that the actual outcome is more "meaningful" than the possibilities that did not occur, then they mistakenly assume that the outcome was biased in favor of some force that wanted it to occur. The Christian worldview that dominates our culture projects our humanity on the universe and assumes that the universe is kind and loving. This is why we attribute seemingly meaningful outcomes to supernatural forces, only when those outcomes our positive according to our own desires. It really is nothing more than people projecting their own desire for an outcome and feelings of meaningfulness onto a universe that could care less. |
08-20-2002, 10:13 AM | #65 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cole Valley, CA
Posts: 665
|
What exactly is the lottery fallacy?
|
08-20-2002, 11:22 AM | #66 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: USA
Posts: 4,635
|
Quote:
|
|
08-20-2002, 11:37 AM | #67 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: USA
Posts: 4,635
|
Quote:
outcome in their favor. The (unsound) reasoning goes something like: "The odds of me winning were 1 in a million. I won, therefore it could not have been chance." Notice that if a million people play (and pick different #s), it is certain that someone will win. If it the outcome is truly random, then the person who won had just as much chance of winning as anyone, and someone had to win. Nothing amazing about it. Also, notice how people are far less likely to assume it was a "miracle" when someone else wins and they lose, even though the odds of the other person winning were just as low as for them. Thomas |
|
08-21-2002, 02:23 AM | #68 |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Sweden
Posts: 2,567
|
sir drinks-a-lot...
Yes, a problem with the Design argument is that it first points out the small chance of there being life (wich is a necessity for the design argument to be valuable). But then it assumes that the pre-universe must have been forced to support life, thus eliminates the chance of ~L wich the whole argument rests on. To prosit that something wanted the universe to support life, you must assume the existence of that being as a premise. The argument is not sound. |
08-21-2002, 12:41 PM | #69 |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Canada
Posts: 3,751
|
The probability of a universe with the properties of ours is manifestly not increased on the hypothesis that there exists a design-capable agent who loathes those properties and is strongly motivated to create a very different universe.
The FTA requires hypothesizing a design-capable agent who prefers a universe like ours. The evidential relation between the properties of this universe and the existence of a designer is therefore vacuous, since that relation would exist between *any* universe and some suitably defined designer or other, preference-wise. |
08-22-2002, 10:54 PM | #70 | |||
Veteran Member
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1,315
|
Quote:
As I said to Thomas, the point of the Fine-Tuning argument is to offset the idea that "God is an invisible, undetectable, untouchable entity and Occam's razor is against the existence of an extra entity of God", by attempting to show that the aternative to belief in God is belief in the existence of a large number of invisible, (currently) undetectable, untouchable entities. In short, I do not argue that FT is the preferred solution on the basis of Occam's razor. Quote:
Quote:
|
|||
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|