echidna

Even if it can be restricted away from Beijing by then, the fear factor is still likely to cut tourist numbers drastically at least in the short term. Couldn't have happened to a nicer government AFAIC, Tibet and all that.

Vorkosigan

It didn't happen to the government, but to the people, 'chid. I wouldn't wish SARS on anyone, particularly the Chinese. Disease control requires good civil society and strong legit government to carry out proper procedures. China does not have that, and so will threaten the societies around it for years to come. As Leia said: "It's not over yet."

Vorkosigan

echidna

True.

echidna

What's the latest in Taiwan, by the way ?

Thor Q. Mada

I don't think they (China) can afford lying at the moment. But any epidemy the world has experienced, has peaked, and gone away, with or without our help, and nobody knows why. And together with the quarantine measures, that is what is happening once again.
And why are people so focussed on Sars: it is new, and the mortality rate amongst the elderly is not 5% but in excess of 60%.
And the so called super carriers are really spreading it like wild fire.

Celsus

Well, not necessarily. Singapore's now SARS free but I'd hardly call our country one with good civil society (obedient civil society more like). Another advantage is that it's simply much smaller and easier to manage.

Joel

Vorkosigan

Yes, I can see you're right, Cel.

In Taiwan, things looked really grim three weeks ago; in fact, my wife and I were considering sending the kids out of the country. But it seems to have become confined to a few hospitals, where it is too stubborn to root out completely in the short term. I am guardedly optimistic. Were it not for all the Taiwan businessmen who can potentially bring it back from China, I would be very optimistic.

Sadly, the WHO has bowed again to pressure from China, not to take Taiwan off the travel ban list until China itself comes off. Just another insult to us here. The WHO's lack of moral courage is appalling.

Vorkosigan

Ockhamite

I, for one, am ready to give China some credit for their efforts in controlling SARS. They may have been slow to mobilize, but, their subsequent efforts have been impressive. The economic consequences of failing to control SARS is too devastating for less than a 100% effort at containment. I doubt they will reduce their efforts prematurely. Considering the level of health care available in China, their results are remarkable and impressive.

World-wide, all it takes is 3 weeks without any cases of SARS....and it would be finished. There is a chance it can be eliminated if the level of vigilance can be sustained. China will do their part.

Laci

Living here in SC, it's a little scary hearing about a few new cases in NC. I guess one of these people went to visit someone in Toronto. This person got SARS and someone else he knew.

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Loren Pechtel

The problem is that the case counts are dropping sharply in China rather than gradually like everywhere else.

I don't think the Chinese government is lying. I think it's local bureaucrats that are altering the truth to make themselves look better.