Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Syphor · 04-17-2003, 04:26 AM

Quote:

I thought the EU exceeded the US in Australian trade?

Ah yes apparently it does (to my surprise). If I had my way we'd be seeking closer relations with Europe and Asia but the current government is too busy toeing the American line.

seanie · 04-17-2003, 05:04 AM

I found some figures too. The EU does seem to be more important than the US in terms of trade but its still a small % of Australia's total. Less than a fifth. In such circumstances it wouldn't make any sense to join the EU. For Canada even less so. The US accounts for something like 85% of its exports, the EU about 2%.

For countries like the UK and France 50-60%+ of their trade is within the EU.

It might make sense for a geographically distant country to try to join the EU but only if the bulk of its trade was with the EU. And even then it would probably be preferable for both to negotiate some particular trade/diplomatic agreement as opposed to full entry with all its attendent difficulties.

In any event a lot will depend on how the EU develops. There is a real need for restructuring and a recognition that change is required. But how that change will come about and its nature is still somewhat vague.

Henry-Finland · 04-17-2003, 06:03 AM

I full stand behind the statements that Koyaanisqatsi made.
Just want to point out that Russia has big natural resources and a vast market. EU and Russia, if the nationalists inside Russia, will not win in let's say 10 years, will be more and more close.
In every question.
If Japan and other counties in the "east-end" of Russia are as fond of the natural resorces and the market + the Chinan market, there will be a huge business and whatever, without any seas between (except for Japan).

Naturally China is an open card, but it is relatively more stabil than USA, whose policy changes 20 degrees to 180 degrees, every time that there is a new president. Or common people feel it so.

You may object to my points, but take even only half of them, and then read again what Koyaanisqatsi wrote and I think You have a picture where we will be in 10 -15 years.

If Bush is elected a second time, take my pessimism, (I am fucking afraid of a coalition that I described above), and add some 200 percent and half the time-line.

Yes, and back to this thread. For EU it will take some 10 - 15 years to stabilize the "new EU", so that the income in different countries will be within a maximum difference of 20 - 30% per capita, between the countries. For the same work etc.

Henry

ex-idaho · 04-17-2003, 07:29 AM

Thanks everyone for your input and insight.

Canada I would think would be a prime candidate for EU membership. Specifically because 80% of their trade is with the US. Whether the EU wishes to compete with the US for the Canadian resources of timber and various ores or they wish to have a partner with stronger ties to the US economically it seems they would be a nice fit.

Of course Canada would benefit by having increased buying power vs the US dollar. The Candian dollar currently trades at about .70 US. If they were to be offered membership into the EU and the Euro remained at or near its current value that would be a boon for the Candian economy.

Of course everytime the EU expands we get closer to fulfilling biblical prophecy

Jat · 04-17-2003, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by seanie
I doubt Canada or Australia would ever join the EU. And in any event the next 10 years will be taken up with attempts to reform and restructure the union. It was only yesterday that 10 new members were admitted. Going from 15 to 25 members is enough of a headache to be going along with for now.

Though, if Canada did join it would open the EU to a much bigger resource base and may greatly increase the value of the Euro Dollar and thus move it further along at replacing the US Dollar as the international medium of exchange.

seanie · 04-17-2003, 07:35 AM

We've already got trees.

matthias j. · 04-17-2003, 07:37 AM

I don't think the Euro will break the Dollarhegemony any time soon, especially now that the US plans to make the dollar the official Iraqi currency...

I also doubt if Canada will ever be part of the European Union. It's supposed to be a politico-geographical union too, not just a simple free trade union.

Jat · 04-17-2003, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Syphor
The EU has a long ways to go. Creating a system of tariff free trade on a continent of 20ish nations and a unified currency is one thing (albeit a pretty big thing) but forming an EU constitution, EU defense force and god forbid a cohesive and unified foreign policy is another thing entirely. Whether they end up getting there or not depends on external factors contrary to European interests, particularly the United States. For example, if the US continues on its crusade to rewrite the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East this will inevitably drive the member nations of the EU closer together. The current roadblock to this though is Britain; although if the US continue on their ways into Syria and onward, Britain can either continue its support of US foreign policy or back off and I'd say it would be the latter. It is not in Britain�s interest to continue isolating itself from the rest of Europe in support of a trigger happy US.

Australia won't be joining the EU, its major trading partners are the US and Asia and thus its future is in securing freeer trading agreements with those countries. Canada I have no idea about but I guess working toward freeer trade with the US is their primary concern. Of more interest to me is whether Russia eventually joins the EU. Some sort of French-German-Russian power bloc has emerged in recent times as an affront to America's global hegemony, while Russia has indicated in the past it has long term interests in joining the EU. Russia's bad human rights record and poor economy are currently an issue but while they're on the side of France and Germany (the real powerbase of the EU) they have a good shot.

We already are suppose to have free trade with the Americans, but more often then not it seems to only run one way, their way.

They accuse us of "unfair" practices such as subsidization and lowering of prices on trade goods and then place tarriffs and taxes on them, or even declare produce diseased when they are not, and yet do the same themselves and get upset when we point them out.

Jat · 04-17-2003, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Ut
I often make the following joke: Quebec should secede from Canada and then join the European Union.

Just imagine looking at the back of a 10 Euro bill and seeing the European continent and, in some isolated corner, Quebec

One of the funniest things the separatists tried to do to convince Quecbers to vote foe separation was to say that they could keep the Canadian currency and social programs after leaving. That is like getting a divorce and still living in the house, but not having to share in the running of it yet taking everything as if you were.

Jat · 04-17-2003, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by seanie
I found some figures too. The EU does seem to be more important than the US in terms of trade but its still a small % of Australia's total. Less than a fifth. In such circumstances it wouldn't make any sense to join the EU. For Canada even less so. The US accounts for something like 85% of its exports, the EU about 2%.

For countries like the UK and France 50-60%+ of their trade is within the EU.

It might make sense for a geographically distant country to try to join the EU but only if the bulk of its trade was with the EU. And even then it would probably be preferable for both to negotiate some particular trade/diplomatic agreement as opposed to full entry with all its attendent difficulties.

In any event a lot will depend on how the EU develops. There is a real need for restructuring and a recognition that change is required. But how that change will come about and its nature is still somewhat vague.

We are also America's biggest trading partner as well. It is mainly through their buying of our raw materials which they sell back to us as finished consumer products. If we had to we could sell to others and eventually do just as well. Trade with the USA is mostly a thing of convenience than of necessity.

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04-17-2003, 05:04 AM	#12
seanie Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Edinburgh. Scotland Posts: 2,532	I found some figures too. The EU does seem to be more important than the US in terms of trade but its still a small % of Australia's total. Less than a fifth. In such circumstances it wouldn't make any sense to join the EU. For Canada even less so. The US accounts for something like 85% of its exports, the EU about 2%. For countries like the UK and France 50-60%+ of their trade is within the EU. It might make sense for a geographically distant country to try to join the EU but only if the bulk of its trade was with the EU. And even then it would probably be preferable for both to negotiate some particular trade/diplomatic agreement as opposed to full entry with all its attendent difficulties. In any event a lot will depend on how the EU develops. There is a real need for restructuring and a recognition that change is required. But how that change will come about and its nature is still somewhat vague.

04-17-2003, 06:03 AM	#13
Henry-Finland Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Finland Posts: 7,018	I full stand behind the statements that Koyaanisqatsi made. Just want to point out that Russia has big natural resources and a vast market. EU and Russia, if the nationalists inside Russia, will not win in let's say 10 years, will be more and more close. In every question. If Japan and other counties in the "east-end" of Russia are as fond of the natural resorces and the market + the Chinan market, there will be a huge business and whatever, without any seas between (except for Japan). Naturally China is an open card, but it is relatively more stabil than USA, whose policy changes 20 degrees to 180 degrees, every time that there is a new president. Or common people feel it so. You may object to my points, but take even only half of them, and then read again what Koyaanisqatsi wrote and I think You have a picture where we will be in 10 -15 years. If Bush is elected a second time, take my pessimism, (I am fucking afraid of a coalition that I described above), and add some 200 percent and half the time-line. Yes, and back to this thread. For EU it will take some 10 - 15 years to stabilize the "new EU", so that the income in different countries will be within a maximum difference of 20 - 30% per capita, between the countries. For the same work etc. Henry

04-17-2003, 07:29 AM	#14
ex-idaho Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Spudtopia, ID Posts: 5,315	Thanks everyone for your input and insight. Canada I would think would be a prime candidate for EU membership. Specifically because 80% of their trade is with the US. Whether the EU wishes to compete with the US for the Canadian resources of timber and various ores or they wish to have a partner with stronger ties to the US economically it seems they would be a nice fit. Of course Canada would benefit by having increased buying power vs the US dollar. The Candian dollar currently trades at about .70 US. If they were to be offered membership into the EU and the Euro remained at or near its current value that would be a boon for the Candian economy. Of course everytime the EU expands we get closer to fulfilling biblical prophecy

04-17-2003, 07:35 AM	#16
seanie Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Edinburgh. Scotland Posts: 2,532	We've already got trees.

04-17-2003, 07:37 AM	#17
matthias j. Regular Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Belgium/Ghent Posts: 191	I don't think the Euro will break the Dollarhegemony any time soon, especially now that the US plans to make the dollar the official Iraqi currency... I also doubt if Canada will ever be part of the European Union. It's supposed to be a politico-geographical union too, not just a simple free trade union.

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