Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Strawberry · 01-27-2003, 09:39 PM

What exactly is this "Pascal's wager" thing? I keep hearing about it, and I figured I should probably get around to asking so I don't feel like an idiot anymore... I gather it has something to do with a guy named Pascal and apologetics and that it's utterly absurd to many non-theists, but other than that, I'm clueless.

Thanks!

Gurdur · 01-27-2003, 09:50 PM

Pascal was a French philosopher, who basically said (I paraphrase):

If I die, and there is no heaven or hell, then I am dead. Kaput. Nothing.

But if there is a heaven and a hell, then I will only get into heaven if I believe in God, and do what He says.

So if I believe, and obey, then when I die I either:

a) am nothing --- in which case I have lost nothing

b) or I get to go to heaven, in which case I win a lot (wager means bet here)

So I might as well believe.
________

This whole argument (Pascal's wager) crumbles completely as soon as you ask the obvious question, "Which God ? Or Goddess ??? Or gods ????"
___________

Don't say I don't look after you.

Philosoft · 01-27-2003, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Gurdur
Don't say I don't look after you.

Ogling her rear-end doesn't count, Gur.

Gurdur · 01-27-2003, 10:01 PM

I think it's a philosophical and ethical imperative to appreciate beauty, no ?

Gurdur · 01-27-2003, 10:05 PM

More on Pascal:

Quote:

from here:

Pascal, Blaise (1623-1662)

French mathematician and theologian. A member of the community at Port-Royal, Pascal in the Lettres provinciales (Provincial Letters) (1657) defended his Jansenist friends against the persecution of the Jesuits. In Les Pens�es (Thoughts) (1665) {at Amazon.com or from eBooks}, Pascal defended a fideistic approach to religion, according to which "Le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ne conna�t point." ("The heart has its reasons that reason does not know at all.") Pascal's work with Fermat on the nature of probability presaged the development of modern decision theory, on the basis of which he argued that belief in god, although not rational, is a clever wager.
.....
Pascal's mathematical acumen was no less remarkable than that of Descartes; his work anticipated the development of game theory and the modern methods of calculating probability. In fact, his famous "Wager" applies these mathematical techniques to the prudence of religious conviction in the absence of adequate evidence: since the consequences of believing are infinitely beneficial if there is a god and only slightly inconvenient if there is not, while the outcome of atheism is only somewhat more pleasant if there is no god and eternally costly if there is, the expected value of theism is much greater than that of atheism, and it is reasonable to stake one's life on the possibility that god does exist.

Strawberry · 01-27-2003, 10:21 PM

Thanks for the information, Gurdur! And thank you and Philosoft both for your concern about my well-being, however dubious that concern might be...

The way I see it, having somebody look out for my rear end is better than having nobody looking out for me at all.

Cheers,
Strawberry

notMichaelJackson · 01-27-2003, 11:09 PM

Pascal's Wager:

Believe and there is a God: heaven
Believe and there is no God: it does not matter
Don't believe and there is a God: hell
Don't believe and there is no God: does not matter.

There are problems with it, but that's what it is.

Harpy · 01-28-2003, 05:39 AM

Believe and there is a God: heaven
Believe and there is no God: You've wasted a lot of precious time and energy
Don't believe and there is a God: Hell
Don't believe and there is no God: die without having wasted any precious time on superstitious nonsense
Believe in the wrong god : Oh Shit!!!!

Harpy's wager.

Asha'man · 01-28-2003, 09:06 AM

If you are going to talk about Pascal's wager, you really should drop Smith's wager into the conversation.

Smith's Wager

Quote:

1) There is no god. The atheist is correct, and consequently lives a happy, fulfilling life free of mindless dogma and emotional tyranny.

2) The second possibility is the god of deism, who was said to have created the universe and then left it to run on its own. There is nothing to fear from such a god; he or she is impersonal and does not reward or punish us.

3) This third possibility is a god that is concerned with humanity. He is a fair and just god. Such a god, in his infinite goodness would never punish anyone for honest errors of reason, assuming of course that there is no moral turpitude involved. Here again we have no reason to fear such a god. In fact, if our reason is what separates us from the animals, then not to use it might be construed as the gravest of "sins." If anyone is in danger of punishment here, it is the theist, and not the atheist.

4) The last possibility concerns an unjust god. Unconcerned with justice, he will burn us whether our mistakes are honest or not. There is, after all, no greater injustice than to punish someone for an honest error of belief, and yet that is just what this fourth god, the Christian god, promises to do. He is unconcerned with issues such as honesty and intellectual integrity and, according to the Bible, will burn us eternally if we doubt his existence. No matter what kind of life we have led, this issue is central in determining where we will spend eternity. Gullibility thus becomes a virtue rather than a vice. Therefore, by definition, this fourth god is a most unprincipalled deity. Christians have always felt that they are in a better position here, but if one thinks about it, they are really in the same boat as the atheist. Why? Simply because, if this god really gets such a thrill out of creating people just to burn them, what could give him greater enjoyment than to promise the Christian eternal bliss and then turn around and burn him too? Certainly, you cannot trust the word of an unjust god when he promises you something, since he must have a sadistic streak in him to begin with.

I ate Pascal's Wafer · 01-28-2003, 05:36 PM

What they said.

Now you can understand my incredibly witty screen name.

-Nick

01-27-2003, 09:39 PM	#1
Strawberry Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Lancaster, PA/Toronto, ON, Canada Posts: 627	What is Pascal's wager? What exactly is this "Pascal's wager" thing? I keep hearing about it, and I figured I should probably get around to asking so I don't feel like an idiot anymore... I gather it has something to do with a guy named Pascal and apologetics and that it's utterly absurd to many non-theists, but other than that, I'm clueless. Thanks!

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01-27-2003, 09:50 PM	#2
Gurdur Contributor Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Buggered if I know Posts: 12,410	Pascal was a French philosopher, who basically said (I paraphrase): If I die, and there is no heaven or hell, then I am dead. Kaput. Nothing. But if there is a heaven and a hell, then I will only get into heaven if I believe in God, and do what He says. So if I believe, and obey, then when I die I either: a) am nothing --- in which case I have lost nothing b) or I get to go to heaven, in which case I win a lot (wager means bet here) So I might as well believe. ________ This whole argument (Pascal's wager) crumbles completely as soon as you ask the obvious question, "Which God ? Or Goddess ??? Or gods ????" ___________ Don't say I don't look after you.

01-27-2003, 10:01 PM	#4
Gurdur Contributor Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Buggered if I know Posts: 12,410	I think it's a philosophical and ethical imperative to appreciate beauty, no ?

01-27-2003, 10:21 PM	#6
Strawberry Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Lancaster, PA/Toronto, ON, Canada Posts: 627	Thanks for the information, Gurdur! And thank you and Philosoft both for your concern about my well-being, however dubious that concern might be... The way I see it, having somebody look out for my rear end is better than having nobody looking out for me at all. Cheers, Strawberry

01-27-2003, 11:09 PM	#7
notMichaelJackson Banned Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: IL Posts: 552	Pascal's Wager: Believe and there is a God: heaven Believe and there is no God: it does not matter Don't believe and there is a God: hell Don't believe and there is no God: does not matter. There are problems with it, but that's what it is.

01-28-2003, 05:39 AM	#8
Harpy Regular Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Chelmsford, South East England Posts: 144	Believe and there is a God: heaven Believe and there is no God: You've wasted a lot of precious time and energy Don't believe and there is a God: Hell Don't believe and there is no God: die without having wasted any precious time on superstitious nonsense Believe in the wrong god : Oh Shit!!!! Harpy's wager.

01-28-2003, 05:36 PM	#10
I ate Pascal's Wafer Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,460	What they said. Now you can understand my incredibly witty screen name. -Nick

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