ex-idaho

Seriously, what could they possibly hope to gain from recalling Davis? They will inherit a $38 billion dollar deficit should they win the election. Winning the election is challenge in itself seeing as many pundits predict there may be as many as 20 candidates on the ticket.

It is much more in thier interest to leave Davis in office to serve out his term and run a good candidate against him or whoever the Democratic nominee is in 3 years. The California situation is a no win for whoever takes over unless the Bush admin decides that now that a Republican is in office they are going to bail them out. Should Bush elect to do this I doubt it would give him much in return at the polls and would likely cost him in other troubled states. I really don't see the benefit.

elwoodblues

Ah, but you can continue to pin that on Davis for at least another 4 or 5 years before it wears really thin.

I think the biggest thing is a sustained blow against the Democrats in California . And maybe seeing a Republican in the state office would get Republican voters into the booths come election day next year. California is a long shot for Republicans, but it's feasible if the Dems are demoralized.

I don't think it has a chance in hell of working. I just think that's the rationale.

theyeti

Not to be flip, but the answer is power.

Now if you're wondering if this is a rational way to go about it, then that's a good question. But the Republicans of late have been anything but rational or ethical in their pursuit of power. This is basically an abuse of a constitutional provision intended to remove a truly dangerous person from office. In that sense, what they're doing is no different than what they did to Clinton, which didn't gain them anything either. Though one could argue that it did stain Clinton's legacy, which for the petty and spiteful Repubs is enough I suppose.

theyeti

ex-idaho

I think the Republicans run a great risk here. If they get rid of Davis the people are going to want action and they are going to want it quick. The Republicans are pitching this recall as if you get rid of Davis everything will be better. If they manage to actually get rid of him and things don't get better they're screwed.

The other problem here is they are not putting forth any ideas. Granted the candidates have not started to campaign or even announce themselves as candidates. They really only have three options here. They can either raise taxes, cut services or a combination of the two. None of these are going to popular choices.

The X factor is the Bush administration. They are providing support for this campaign even though they deny it. I fear that they plan to offer some form of bail out plan for a new Republican govenor if they manage to elect one. I think this will do more to enrage the Democrats and put Bush at a even greater electoral peril.

ohwilleke

Republicans gain the chance to get a replacement elected, when the Democrats are hamstrung because its strongest candidates are not willing to go head to head against a sitting Democratic governor. Since the recall and the replacement election would be conducted at the same time, the Republicans have the edge.

Also, since Republicans are likely to be more motivated to vote for the recall, their share of the vote would be better in the general election.

And, Republicans get a Democratic villian "rejected by the people of the State of California in mid-term he was so bad", which is powerful rhetoric for decades.

And, if the Republicans lose the recall effort in a close vote, say 52-48, then they can say that almost half of the people of California are already ready to dump their Governor.

And, Republicans deprive Davis of a chance to vindicate himself with an economic turnaround and other successes later in his term, which are likely.

copernicus

Even a failed recall can help add weight to Davis's sinking ship and build momentum for the next election. Besides, aren't the Republicans going to run the Terminator for governor in the next election? Could any Democrat beat him? I heard a rumor that he was sent from the future by pollution-breathing organisms that hope to put an end to Democratic efforts reduce greenhouse gasses.

ex-idaho

If Arnold runs it will be a very sad day for American politics. My prediction is he will a one termer either by choice or by defeat.

However Arnold is a Republican in name only really. He is pro-choice, pro-gun control (you'd never know it from his movies) and he is also in favor of most the social programs in the state. I guess you could call him a fiscal conservative but without a record or any real position statements its pretty hard to call him anything but muscle bound.

copernicus

Actually, ex-idaho, your comments suggest to me that Arnold would be a slam-dunk for next governor. He neutralizes the Democrats on a lot of their traditional issues, and he has the added advantage of being a celebrity. Just like ex-Governor Ronald Reagan, only even more popular with young people. And, given the importance of Hollywood to California's economy, he isn't such a bad selection for Republicans. He is sure to be a great draw for campaign contributions. I wonder if there is anything that Gray Davis, or any other Democrat, could do to compete with him. Will the governor's election be in the same year as the Presidential election? Bush could easily take the state on the Terminator's coattails.

ex-idaho

Copernicus I agree. If he runs he will win no question about it. My comments were addressing the lack of GOP credentials he has. He through his wife has contacts on both sides of the isle. I just don't think he will be an effective governor.

copernicus

I don't know whether he will make a good governor. Sometimes, people surprise us. The great tragedy is that he could possibly put the nail in the Democrats' coffin for the Presidential election. IMO, Bush is the worst President since Harding, and he is likely to do more serious damage to the economy than Reagan did. Bad news and bad luck for us.