Dan<Devil>

Just another mutated virus causing a few deaths...happend before and it will probably happen in the future. Chill guys...

Ockhamite

SARS....a.k.a. the Killer Cold is getting out of control.

It is not likely that China will be able to control the outbreak of this coronavirus now that it has gotten out into the rural areas where health care facilities are substandard. Hong Kong and now Canada are not doing much better.

Without a quick test for detection of those infected, a reliance on quarantines and isolation will quickly be overwhelmed and unwieldily as the numbers of possibly infected increases, and if 25 % of those infected are health care workers, this means pathogen control in the hospitals is not up to this task. Hardly any of the undeveloped countries will be able to control the spread of the virus.

This can become an economic nightmare long before the quantity of victims is comparable to other infectious diseases. The travel and lodging industries will be devastated quickly,...anyone for a fun-filled 10-day ocean cruise....remember to bring your mask. If people refuse to travel, tour, attend sporting events or business conferences, go out to restaurants and otherwise congregate, then, this has the ability to hammer the economy like nothing in recent memory.

If we can judge by our success at controlling the common cold, then how likely are we to quickly detect, control the spread and safely innoculate against this virus ....in a matter of weeks.

Hanging out on the II forums could be the safest place to be.

If Bush is counting on an improved US economy for his re-election, he could be disappointed.

Jackalope

Keep in mind that the Hong Kong hospitals, at least, have serious problems with infection control right now. According the news report that's been running today, health workers are rationed to 1 (yes, one) mask per week and goggles, isolation gowns and gloves are also running short. That right there would cause serious problems trying to contain an outbreak in a hospital setting. Also a problem: not all institutions use the same infection control protocols. US institutions were advised last year that studies showed that most health workers thought that gloves were sufficient infection control and one didn't need to clean/disinfect one's hands after removing gloves. Such misconceptions also make it very hard to control infection outbreaks in a hospital setting (the studies I saw were mostly in reference to MRSA outbreaks in hospital wards).

So we've got inadequate infection controls both in terms of supplies and protocol in some places, and totally exhausted health workers who are kept in isolation when off-shift in Hong Kong. Is anyone suprised that the virus is spreading? That's before you even consider that it's a coranavirus.

Vorkosigan

Posting in from Taiwan....we had our first deaths recently, one from SARS, one a suicide due to SARS. We've had one hospital closed now.

A couple of things. First, there will be no way to control it short of physically locking up people. We had a nurse spread it all over the island; she had SARS and was told to go home, but took at bus from Taipei four hours to Kaohsiung in the south after panicking and going to see her mother, infecting individuals on the bus. Several cases of quarantined individuals were going in and out of their houses. Taiwanese simply do not a strong civic sense and for so many in Chinese society it is nothing to them if others die for their behavior. I shudder to think that the locals consider China inhuman..... and beyond that, there are the "thickly breeding primates" of India and Russia, where the health system has broken down. I think that we may see death tolls in the millions if drastic action is not taken or we are not blessed with extreme good luck.

This disease has been running around for quite some time. We first heard reports of a mystery disease in China last year and several people who flew through Bangkok said they were checked as early as November. The authorities have known about this for quite some time.

Beyond the deaths, SARS will have major impacts on the slowly starving airline industry, and the expert trade, tourism, and shopping that make Asia go. The expense of treatment is going to strain local health budgets. My fingers are solidly crossed.

Vorkosigan

Ice

All infections here thus far have been traced to 3 super-infectors, who were in turn traced to one super-infector. Just goes to show you only need one to start a long chain of infections.

Drastic measures have been taken here, so much so a WHO official in Manila remarked that if we can't control it, no other country can. Home quarantine, surveillance cameras in private homes, electronic wrist tagging, isolation units (thankfully, none of our hospitals have closed, though A&E department loads have been redistributed, and all elective surgery postponed), fines without having to be charged, the ability to arrest without a warrant, closing of any infected area (the latest caused a drop in vegetable availability and a surge in vegetable prices, leading the largest supermarket chain here to actually charter planes to import vegetables from Australia).

It's usually those who have not been affected - physically or economically, who thinks this is overblown.

asvani

Don't forget, SARS probably has a mortality rate of 8 to 10% as shown in Singapore and Toronto. That's why people are so darn scared. Oh, one of the professors in the National University of Singapore, who was hale and hearty a month back, just died after a week ago after a few days of cough and fever, possibly from SARS.

hammiesink

Anyone read/seen Stephen King's "The Stand?" The virus in the story is called "superflu" and ends up killing most people on earth.

And that 3% mortality rate everyone is quoting has now moved up to 10%, with some predictions estimating it may top out at 18%.

Vorkosigan

India has reported six cases of SARS. Brrr...

Vorkosigan

Secular Pinoy

Oh, I thought that Singapore is already doing that, even before SARS. And I have a "Fine City" t-shirt to prove it!