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Old 04-03-2003, 05:51 PM   #91
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DNAunion: Using [my code] to determine an empirical probability for what I discussed earlier … turned up a result of 96.0258%, which is virtually identical to the theoretical probability of 96.03% I calculated by hand…
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Principia: Well, being suspicious of DNAunion's claims, I did what any intellectually honest person would do -- I checked it out for myself. Here are 5 runs:
Code:
1) 95.9953%
2) 96.1158%
3) 96.0772%
4) 96.0179%
5) 96.2149%
And I gave up after that, having spent 10 minutes doing them. Especially after I noticed that the number DNAunion reported, was clearly a result of cherry picking data. I rest my case.
DNAunion: And which program did you use? The C++ one or the VFP one? Remember, their GetRandomNumber functions are coded differently, and it is the VFP one that counts. So, which was it?

Furthermore, let’s assume that those are actual numbers from runs of my VFP program, the average (mean) comes out to be 96.08422%, which is still very close to the approximate 96.03% theoretical probability; the mean calculated EMPIRICAL probability is off by only about one half of one tenth of one percent (as figured as the difference of the two).

And I’ll point out again that this is an EMPIRICAL probability, which means it isn’t expected to be 100% on the money. For example, try to calculate an EMPIRICAL probability that a given number will come up when rolling a die. Roll it 360 times and you won’t get exactly 60 1’s, 60 2’s, 60 3’s, 60 4’s, 60 5’s, and 60 6’s, even though that is what the THEORETICAL probability would predict. In fact, if one claims to have gotten 60 of each when actually rolling a die, that claim should be dismissed (or at least warrant a great deal of skepticism).

Furthermore, because it is an EMPIRICAL probability, the values will differ from run to run, but will be clustered around the theoretical value; just as your 5 runs show.

In fact, if you look at the 5 runs, you will see that 2 of your numbers are lower than the number I stated and 3 of yours are higher; so the number I stated for a single run falls pretty much in the middle of yours.

So on what VALID grounds do you assert as undeniable fact ("clearly") that I ran multiple runs and then “cherry picked” just one to present? You have no basis, other than your personal disgust for me. And by the way…you are 100% wrong: it was a single run I used; first run, one run, only one run. Gee, I guess you aren’t as good at probability as your thought!


Now, if you'll excuse me Principia, I have to spend a long weekend with some people who aren't jerks.
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Old 04-03-2003, 05:55 PM   #92
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So on what VALID grounds do you assert as undeniable fact that I ran multiple runs and then “cherry picked” just one to present? You have no basis, other than your hatred for me. And by the way…you are 100% wrong: it was a single run I used; first run, one run, only one run. Gee, I guess you aren’t as good at probability as your thought!
Hatred? LOL. Try lack of respect -- which as I understand from the various forums you visit, is just a little bit more than what most people feel about you.

But anyway, my understanding of probability is sufficient to inform me not to trust merely one data point in a stochastic program. Clearly, you don't even know that much.
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Old 04-03-2003, 05:59 PM   #93
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DNAunion: And which program did you use? The C++ one or the VFP one? Remember, their GetRandomNumber functions are coded differently, and it is the VFP one that counts. So, which was it?
Really? I thought it was the VFP that was flawed? Eh. This whole exercise is pointless, anyway. I don't understand your need to stick by your flawed and bloated code to do scientific analyses, especially since the alternative theoretical analysis is so much more elegant, exact, and informative.
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:00 PM   #94
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Principia: But anyway, my understanding of probability is sufficient to inform me not to trust merely one data point in a stochastic program.
DNAunion: Too bad for you that you don't know enough about the subject to come up with a correct conclusion!
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:00 PM   #95
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This thread will be permanently closed if civility is not maintained. Keep a lid on it.
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:04 PM   #96
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DNAunion: Too bad for you that you don't know enough about the subject to come up with a correct conclusion!
Nope. The correct conclusion is that this whole thread was started with your need for ego-stroking. I reached this conclusion in my first post. The rest was just trivia to show how you are incompetent to make your grandiose claims.
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:07 PM   #97
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Principia: Really? I thought it was the VFP that was flawed?
DNAunion: If you consider a one-tenth of one percent "bias", used in an EMPIRICAL probability calculation, in a program that has not been fully setup and debugged, to be a flaw be my guest.

That's it - that is ALL you found wrong with my unfinished code, despite your pompous attitude and unending posturing.

But in the process, you managed to shoot yourself in the foot, showing all of us your complete ignorance of computer programming.

Gee Principia, can you tell us now what spaghetti code is?

Can you tell us how to have a program make decisions WITHOUT using any form of conditional branching?

Can you tell us the difference between a C and a C++ program?

And so on...
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:09 PM   #98
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DNAunion: Now, if you'll excuse me Principia, I have to spend a long weekend with some people who aren't jerks.
Gee, I wonder why DNAunion is so upset when I reflect his nitpickiness and arrogance towards him? Well, I'll bet that he isn't quite done with me yet, and there will be more hateful invective coming my way. Better quit while I'm ahead.
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:09 PM   #99
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I am assuming that neither of you saw my warning before posting you latest replies. This is your last chance.
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Old 04-03-2003, 06:11 PM   #100
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Principia: Better quit while I'm ahead.
DNAunion: Ahead? Not on computer programming! You faired against me about as well as the Iraqi's did against the coalition!
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