Jack

Is the much feared "Oil Weapon" wielded by OPEC really a popgun? The 10 February 2003 issue of The New Yorker has a piece by James Surowiecki in their Talk of the Town section that has some interesting things to say. See it here:

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/conten...alk_surowiecki

Jack

Ruy Lopez

I agree with the article's opinion but it's argumentation and insights are less than professional. It's more like a gossip column. Why couldn't the author cite about a dozen numbers or statistics to prove his point? I'm not familiar with the type of periodical "The New Yorker" is; if it is meant to be serious or not.

In 1974, there was no spare oil production capacity anywhere in the world. "Real" demand seemed a tad higher than available supply of 66 mmbcd; in other words there was already a shortage before the embargo. On top of that, worldwide inventories were lower than desired operating levels. The announced embargo, averaging 30% really cut deep.

In 2002 or 2003, there is a surplus capacity of close to 5 million bcd (barrels per calendar day). Furthermore the price level is on the high side that a subtle structural conservation effort had been in effect for a long time already. Also oil demand for the last three years have been stagnant, almost no growth and insiders know that demand from Europe and the US will probably fall this year. If Iraq is taken over, next year it can sell 3.5 mmbcd of which 1.5 is new production. Meanwhile Russian production is expected to increase by at leat .3 mmbcd. The price of oil will probably plunge in 2004.

Embargo threats will not be taken seriously.

Aerion

Here's an article that basically says what I've been saying all along. The United States does NOT need Iraqi oil hence oil is NOT the reason we're going to Iraq!

Ruy Lopez

Aerion:

US only needs about 8% of its oil from Middle East; in other words, it does not need it. But the US wants CONTROL of Saudi, Kuwaiti, Omani, Bahraini, Dubay, Uae oil AND IRAQI/IRANIAN oil to control Japan, Europe, India, Pakistan and even China (whose consumption is starting to outsrip domestic production.

If not clear, please read again.

Jack

The New Yorker is, perhaps, the best magazine published in the USA. It is an extremely serious magazine, but they also consider humor to be a serious part of culture. Their cartoons are legendary.

The Talk of the Town section is a collection of opinion and feature pieces by staff writers. As such it is more like opinion columns than like scholarly pieces. You shouldn't expect the same kind kind of statistical backup in an opinion piece as you would in a complete article. Surowiecki's column runs frequently and is worth following when it does.

When they run a full article it usually runs quite long and is copiously documented. Many of their full articles run as serials and are later collected into full length books. Richard Preston's "The Hot Zone" was first serialized in TNY. John McPhee's books usually run there first.

Jack