theyeti

I'm somewhat suspicious of those "secret poll" results. How do you ensure random sampling during a secret poll? Who's more likely to participate, the guy who's happy with the status quo, or the guy who's frustrated by has no outlet in which to express those frustrations? (Admittedly, this is a problem with every poll.) And furthermore, there were not-so-good indications, like the fact that most of them eyed the opposition groups with a lot of suspicion. And most of them had no thought of anything other than their dislike of Saddam. Does that really mean that they prefer an American occupation government? I think that lots of people who were virulently anti-Saddam will simply trade their villians once the US is in charge.

I also don't think that hypothetical situations can capture the emotion of the real thing. I'm sure a significant fraction of Iraqis who will readily denounce Saddam and welcome an invasion during an interview feel differently about it once American troops set foot on their soil. The feelings that nationalism can spark are a force to be reckoned with. And a lot of it's going to depend on how we go about conducting this war and our <ahem> diplomacy. Given the numbskulls we have in charge, Bill could very well be right.

theyeti

Mr. Superbad

That, and probably the fact that we turned our back on them the last time they tried to rise against Saddam, and have been pretty indefferent to their suffering under sanctions since the last Gulf War.

Jesse

theyeti:
I'm somewhat suspicious of those "secret poll" results. How do you ensure random sampling during a secret poll? Who's more likely to participate, the guy who's happy with the status quo, or the guy who's frustrated by has no outlet in which to express those frustrations? (Admittedly, this is a problem with every poll.) And furthermore, there were not-so-good indications, like the fact that most of them eyed the opposition groups with a lot of suspicion. And most of them had no thought of anything other than their dislike of Saddam. Does that really mean that they prefer an American occupation government? I think that lots of people who were virulently anti-Saddam will simply trade their villians once the US is in charge.

Well, I'd rather debate the details on the other thread, but I agree that the poll's results are not very definitive--see the link underneath it for some comments about the limited sample size and so forth. But this was just one of a number of lines of evidence I posted there, including the rebellions during the first Gulf War and interviews with Iraqis and Iraqi exiles.

I agree that Iraqis may dislike an American occupation govt. and trade their villains to some extent, but I think the Americans would have to treat them pretty horribly indeed for them to believe American occupation was even worse than life under Saddam. That was why I argued above that they would probably consider American occupation as a "lesser of two evils", not that they would be totally happy about the occupation. And of course, a lot will depend on whether the U.S. makes good on its promise of "Iraqi Freedom." I don't have great faith in the Bush administration, but I'm hoping for the best (and I also hope the democrats will put pressure on them if it looks like they're screwing things up--I think this is an issue the democrats would have an easier time presenting a united front on than the issue of the war itself).