Rick Sumner

Probability is a word that gets used a lot in history. Almost always incorrectly.

Probability requires objective numbers. We do not have those. What you mean is plausibility. My post addresses why this type of value judgment needs to be avoided.

Rick Sumner

John H. Arnold, in History: A Very Short Introduction, describes history as the "art of good guessing," and calls this art the "third virtue of the modern historian." There's some truth to this, but I would contend that this should be viewed more as a curse than a virtue. The modern historian should try and minimize the need for guessing, good or otherwise (though I'm doubtful it can ever be eliminated completely). Better to say "I don't know."

Rick Sumner

This only works if you assume your conclusions. Our evidence actually works the other way, a deity (in Paul) became a story (in the gospels).

Rick Sumner

:hysterical:

No Robots

:hysterical:

thief of fire

Could you possibly give us some more examples of ancient figures who you are agnostic about their existence?

Do you think, say, Hannibal existed. Do you think other "messianic" type figures mentioned by Josephus around that period existed? Like Judas the Gallilean, Theudas, The Samaritan prophet or the Egyptian.

Rick Sumner

Sure. King Arthur.

Polybius was an exceptionally good historian, and probably deserves to be considered the father of modern history far more than Herodotus does. Many would consider him the most reliable of all ancient historians. Certainly he belongs in the top echelon. His reflections on his own historiography put my meager efforts to shame. As an added bonus, he was present for the sack of Carthage.

Do you honestly expect me to take this comparison seriously? In the great list of ancient histories, Polybius should have been about dead last on the list for this. One wonders if you picked Hannibal entirely at random.

Probably. Mostly because we know what Josephus was doing. We know who he was. We know where he was. We know more about him than we do about all four of the gospel authors combined.

We can be confident that Josephus is employing his own historiography. We have no reason to suppose the gospel authors are doing anything of the sort.

No Robots

At the risk of receiving a bellow from Vorkosigan, I have to ask: How about Hillel?

Rick Sumner

I think it unlikely, but haven't undertaken enough time with the evidence to make a firm claim.

No Robots

An honest answer. Really, to use mythicist criteria would effectively be to take a buzzsaw to the Talmud.