aa5874

But, you know there are theories of probabilities.

Your claim must be erroneous if you cannot prove that my numbers are wrong.

Your lack of knowledge and pre-suppositions cannot be used to contradict my numbers.

Get any scientific based theory on probability and put in the following data and tell me your results.

Jesus of Nazareth was concieved through the Holy Ghost, witnessed by his mother, the Holy Spirit entered Jesus like doves, he was tempted by the devil on the pinnacle of the Temple, he used spit to make people see, walked on water, raised dead people, changed his countenance at will, was crucified on a day when the sun went dark for three hours, resurrected, and ascended through the clouds without external propulsion and witnessed by his disciples.

Sheshbazzar

OK, I give.
Yet inquire, how do you arrive at any particular probability of a living Jezus messiah in first century Nazareth?
Which of all those Jezus's is the one you are basing your "calculations" on, and I would love to see the math you are using.

Ben C Smith

Yes, I do.

My claim is that you used no viable statistical formula to come up with your numbers. Are you going to provide me with your formula or not?

True. Which means that my position (which, by way of reminder, is that you have no statistical formula to back up your numbers) is falsifiable. Please falsify it.

The probability of this kind of human being existing is very low. But that is not the claim I am calling you on. I am calling you on your claim that the population of Nazareth has something to do with the probability of the existence of Jesus.

Why can you not give me the statistical formula you used to calculate your numbers? Is it a state secret?

Ben.

Ben C Smith

I do not calculate mathematical probability at all for or against the existence of Jesus. I use historical probability, which is an animal of a different stripe.

No math, no mathematical calculations, but the Jesus I would be talking about is the Jesus who was (A) alleged to have been executed and (B) resurrected from the dead in Judea early in century I, as well as (C) called Christ (messiah) by those who honored him.

Ben.

aa5874

Well, why are you wasting time, you have already admitted that the probability is very low for Jesus of Nazareth as described in the NT.

Now, I would imagine there are statistical formulas to back up your very low number.

What formula did you use? You like to bluff.

Ben C Smith

I have acknowledged that the Jesus as described in the NT is improbable very early and very often on this board; where have you been?

And I will be the judge of whether or not I have wasted my time on calling your ignorant bluff.

Ben.

aa5874

Well, tell the people what statistical formula you used to claim Jesus as described in the NT is improbable.


You are not ignorant and you don't bluff?

Ben C Smith

Did you not read my response to Sheshbazzar? I do not use statistical probability to come to that conclusion. I use historical probability, which I assure you has nothing to do with the statistical fallacy of counting up how many people share a name in a village and counting up how many people live in that village overall and then dividing.

I am ignorant of many things, but not of the things I called you on.

I bluff in poker.

Ben.

Sheshbazzar

ROFLMO
'nother words, that same old baseless worthless tripe x-inanity has always been passing gas about.

spamandham

There are two adults living in my household, one of which is me. What is the maximum probability that I am an adult living in my household?

There are 5 people living in my household, one of which is me. What is the maximum probability that I am a person living in my household?

The probability of a historical core to Jesus has nothing whatsoever to do with the population at the time, as long as the population was not zero. If there were only 1 person alive at the time, the probability that that person was Jesus is not 100% (unless it were 100% for reasons unrelated to the population). If there were an infinite number of people alive at the time, the probability that one of them was Jesus is not 0% (unless it were 0% for reasons unrealted to the population).