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Old 11-20-2011, 04:05 PM   #181
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...The references in the above to "conclusions" is equally valid to "postulates" and when we understand that different people are using different postulates then there is really no LOGICAL errors...
Doug Shaver disagrees with you.

Doug Shaver is NOT postulating but has CONCLUDED that Paul PROBABLY existed based on the fact that there are letters with the name Paul.
Actually I think the term that Doug and Toto used was INFER from the evidence.

Hopefully above it has been demonstrated that the evidence does not speak, and that we have to formulate postulates about the evidence, and it is from these postulatory statements that we are then free to INFER.

It has been demonstated above that the postulates of Toto representing Doug do not admit the possibility that "Paul" was fictional or ahistorical. It is therefore no wonder that the "conclusion" that "Paul" was probably historical can be "infered" from such postulates.

That Jesus or "Paul" was either historical or ahistorical is a postulate or a hypothesis.
At a most fundamental level we need to see our fundamental postulates exposed in clarity.
There is no harm in defending and exploring either avenue, but we need to be upfront.
There should be no reason to deny that the statement "Paul" was probably historical"
(or any variant thereof) is a postulate or a hypothesis about evidence.

It is NOT the evidence.

Are there any objections with this reasoning? The earlier quote from Carrier bears repeating:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Carrier

The Fallacy of Confusing Evidence with Theories:

A single example will suffice: William Lane Craig frequently argues that historians need to explain the evidence of the empty tomb. But in a Bayesian equation, the evidence is not the discovery of an empty tomb, but the production of a story about the discovery of an empty tomb. That there was an actual empty tomb is only a theory (a hypothesis, i.e. h) to explain the production of the story (which is an element of e). But this theory must be compared with other possible explanations of why that story came to exist (= ~h, or = h2, h3, etc.), and these must be compared on a total examination of the evidence (all elements of e, in conjunction with b and the resulting prior probabilities).

Hence a common mistake is to confuse actual hypotheses about the evidence, with the actual evidence itself (which should be tangible physical facts, i.e. actual surviving artifacts, documents, etc., and straightforward generalizations therefrom).
The objection is the same as before: that you do not appear to be acknowledging that it is possible to arrive at a conclusion without starting by assuming it.
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Old 11-20-2011, 04:33 PM   #182
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If you were not so enamored of your own windbaggery, you wouldn't have to do so much guessing about what the rest of us think.
After dealing with some responses in this thread I am not so sure the process can be best described as thinking. Those who deal with dogma for example are often hostile to the examination and discussion of postulates that are antithetical to their own.
We're up to multiple pages on this thread, but you haven't identified any different postulates as most of us define the term.
One list of postulates is presented at post #16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Post #16

Draft Listing of Postulates

I will make a list of the criteria as if they were to be considered as postulates, to start the list. These are:

P1. Methodological naturalism
P2. The most difficult reading is more likely to be the original
P3. The genre must be known before a historical assay can be made.
P4. Where text A is dependent on text B, text B is older.

From Huon ....


Quote:
P5. Do not forget that texts A and B can be combinations of pieces of various dates.

P6. The discussions about the NT concern texts about which we do not know what happened to them before the 4th century. At best, the papyrii bring infos about what they contain, nothing more.

and from Toto ...


Quote:

P7. human society and psychology in the past was very similar to what we have today,

P8 ancient documents are not good evidence, but may be some evidence

P9 miracles do not happen.



Some of these are a reasonable start to a list of postulates.

Are there any lists of postulates anywhere relevant to this process?
Feel free to massively copy/paste .....
Another list was presented at Post #19, which are marked as CRITERIA and which must logically be supported by a series of corresponding postulates, but these postulates have rarely been made explicit:

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Originally Posted by Postulates listed at Post # 19

Some additional postulates (ok, criteria) used by HJ theorists


P101 - Dissimilarity - dissimilar to independent Jewish or Christian precedent
P102 - Embarrassment - if it was embarrassing, it must be true
P103 - Coherence - coheres with other confirmed data
P104 - Multiple Attestation - attested in more than one independent source
P105 - Contextual Plausibility - plausible in a Jewish or Greco-Roman cultural context
P106 - Historical Plausibility - coheres with a plausible historical reconstruction
P107 - Natural Probability - coheres with natural science (etc.)
P108 - Explanatory Credibility - historicity better explains later traditions
P109 - Oral Preservability - capable of surviving oral transmission
P110 - Fabricatory Trend - isn’t part of known trends in fabrication or embellishment
P111 - Least Distinctiveness - the simpler version is the more historical
P112 - Vividness of Narration - the more vivid, the more historical
P113 - Crucifixion - explains why Jesus was crucified
P114 - Greek Context - if whole context suggests parties speaking Greek
P115 - Aramaic Context - if whole context suggests parties speaking Aramaic
P116 - Textual Variance - the more invariable a tradition, the more historical
P117 - Discourse Features - if J’s speeches cohere in style but differ fr. surrounding text
P118 - etc
......
P136 - etc


And then at Post # 20 a third list of postulates was presented for discussion from the archives:

Quote:
Originally Posted by List of postulates from post # 20

List of possible postulates for MJ Theories

(nb: "stories" refers to "Gospel Stories")


1) the Jesus stories are mythology, itself a "transformed earlier myth"
2) Story characters are arbitrarility ficitious or historical
3) christianity grew organically without founder, later invented a story
4) stories are based on Hebrew scriptures (not an HJ)
5) Paul and his letters are "historical" (eg: Doherty's MJ)
6) stories are "mythical" created by an historically unknowable "storyteller(s)".
7) stories are "mythical" created by an historically knowable "storyteller(s)".






List of postulates for HJ Theories

1) Sufficient historicity - the actual history of the time can be recovered in sufficient detail to have some assurance that one obscure person existed.
2) HJ Core (assumed as an unexamined postulate).
3) Evidentiary - because "of the fact" that christianity exists, it may be concluded that some HJ, or charismatic founder, or "NRM personality" started it.
4) Textual core written records are historical evidence of an HJ.

5) Source Language: the New Testament was written in Greek
6) Transmission: the critical Westcott-Hort transmission is correct
7) History: the christian historiology written c.314 is true and correct
8) Apostlic lineage: the apostle Paul wrote something preserved to us
9) Paul and his letters are "historical"

Your claim that I "haven't identified any different postulates as most of us define the term" is demonstrably false. I have been calling for postulates and we have had an exchange about the postulates relating to the Pauline Letters.


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What you label "postulates" are more like conclusions.
You seem to forget that is is quite valid to argue that given the provisional truth of the postulates P1, P2, P3 etc .... then massive theoretical discussion ... the conclusion is that the postulates can be considered "proven" as working postulates in the field.

It is quite reasonable that some people take the conclusions of other theories of history and then state them as postulates for another theory. This has been going on for centuries and centuries. It is easy to be confused by the differences between the way postulates are used with respect to the ancient historical evidence in the field of ancient history, and way postulates are used with respect to theories in the field of physics and science, where there is provision for repeatable scientific experiments.

History seems to work over time sometimes by simply refining the postulates about the evidence and reprocessing the same evidence. New evidence mandates a reprocessing. etc As someone earlier mentioned, its a bit like a massive WHAT-IF generator. The experiment has been run, we are examining the past not so much via the evidence as about our hypotheses about the evidence.


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And there is no indication of how people who start from these different positions would have anything to say to each other.

It's pretty obvious to even newcomers here that there is an invective for example between those investigators who are exploring the postulate of the HJ, and those who are exploring the antithetical postulate of the MJ. To a lesser degree we see a similar invective between those who CLAIM / POSTULATE / HYPOTHECIZE that "Paul was a genuine historical character" and those who are exploring the antithetical hypotheses that "Paul was NOT a genuine historical character.

People obviously have attachments to their own postulates, and it also appears to be true that SOME PEOPLE are running with postulates that must be infered from their statement, and which are not explicit, but which can be made explicit after an examination of their statement.

The examination of our basic postulates in all theories of the history of christian origins reveals that both the HJ and the MJ are not conclusions from the evidence, but postulates / claims / hypotheses formulated from the evidence by the investigators. In an earlier response you indicated that some academics make these postulates quite explicit, while others OMIT them in an explicit form. The logic of this omission is being questioned.

The postulates are all hypothetical as are any theoretical HISTORICAL conclusions. I can only explain the existence of invectives between the investigators as arising from their own conviction that their postulates about key evidence, and perhaps each and every item of evidence being examined (and thus conclusions) are superior in some fundamental manner to those of their colleagues. (They are no colleagues of mine !!! etc)

Sometimes the indication is that people who start from these different positions actually dont have anything much to say to each other, other than "There is no evidence to prove the HJ" or "There is no evidence to prove the MJ" etc etc etc ad nauseum circuhilarium ..... in short, its been a traditional mud slinging event about "Show me the evidence I dont postulate exists! "


What I am trying to say is "Show me your specific postulates about these specific evidence items one by one by one ....".



RE-ENGINEERING THE GENERAL THEORY OF THE HISTORY OF CHRISTIAN ORIGINS


I have used the term re-engineer above. What I mean by it is a total rebuild of a general theory from the ground up for someone who is completely new to the field. The process involves a set of very simple antithetical postulates:


(1) About the historicity of "Jesus":

"Jesus is a genuine historical character" (HJ postulate)

OR

"Jesus is a fabricated historical character" (MJ postulate)



(2) About the historicity of "Paul":

"Paul is a genuine historical character"

OR

"Paul is a fabricated historical character"



(9) CHRONOLOGY: About the century in which the history of christian origins first commenced:


the 1st century

OR

the 1st and 2nd centuries

OR

the 2nd century.

Voila! By simply selecting three very simple postulates we have outlined the fundamental framework of most of not all of the theores of the history of christian origins that have been discussed here and elsewhere, for years and indeed centuries. I am nit deny there will be a great difference in the details discussed by each theory. I am not denying that most theories cover a great deal more issues that those that are directly related to these three postulations above.

However my claim relates to the basic structure and the theoretical conclusions of the mainstream and fringe compettive theories of the history of christian origins, and with which most of us are quite familiar.
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Old 11-20-2011, 06:20 PM   #183
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The evidence consists of ancient documents that purport to have been written or dictated by Paul. The inference or conclusion is that there probably was someone named Paul, who either wrote those documents, or who inspired a forger to write them in his name. There is a possibility that he did not exist.
Actually, we don’t need those documents to know that there was a person called Paul. There’s plenty of evidence that there have been many people called Paul. There still are. The question isn’t whether there was somebody called Paul. The question is, more specifically, what the possible explanations are of how and why the name ‘Paul’ came to be attached to particular texts as an ascription of authorship and whether there is any basis for estimating the relative likelihood of those different possibilities. That in turn breaks down into still more specific questions. For example, there is a question whether the ascription of authorship to a ‘Paul’ was made by the original author or was a later addition—or whether it was the ascription was original for some texts and a later addition for others. Whether the ascription was original or a later addition (for any given text), there is more than one possible reason for it. For a given text, one possibility for ascribing it to ‘Paul’ is to associate it with other texts already ascribed to that ‘Paul’: for example, the name ‘Paul’ might have been attached to (say) 2 Thessalonians as a way of indicating (truly or falsely) that it had the same author as 1 Thessalonians. Another possibility is that ascribing a text to ‘Paul’ was intended to associate it with somebody known in person to the intended audience as ‘Paul’: for example, if somebody calling himself ‘Paul’ had been in Thessalonica and become known to a group of people there, attaching the name ‘Paul’ to a letter sent to that group of Thessalonians might be intended to indicate (truly or falsely) that the letter came from that specific ‘Paul’ personally known to them. Still another separate question is whether the name ‘Paul’ as attached to a given text came perhaps from somebody whose true name was ‘Paul’ or perhaps from somebody whose true name was not ‘Paul’ but who used that name (that is, not just in that particular text)—and if so, what motive there might have been for adopting the false name ‘Paul’.

To some extent these questions also have a relationship with still other separate questions about the authorship of each of the individual texts under discussion: which (if any) of the things the text says about is author are true. For example, the text of Philippians makes a point of describing the author as a Pharisee: is that true and, whether it’s true or false, why is it mentioned in the text?

An important step in trying to answer any of these questions is being sufficiently specific about just which question you’re trying to answer. Vagueness breeds confusion.
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Old 11-20-2011, 06:34 PM   #184
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+1 Paul is likely an authentic and genuine historical character

0 Unable to tell whether Paul is either authentic or fabricated.

-1 Paul is likely an inauthentic and fabricated historical character
If those three possibilities are, as stated, mutually exclusive, then, since one of them is ‘unable to tell’, the other two must be ‘able to tell’.

If we’re talking about what is in fact the case, there are just two possibilities, ‘X is the case’ and ‘X is not the case’; if we’re talking about what we can tell, there may be three possibilities, ‘We can tell that X is the case’, ‘We can tell that X is not the case’, and ‘We cannot tell’. On the other hand, we can talk about what we begin by assuming to be the case, with these three possibilities: ‘We begin by assuming that X is the case’, ‘We begin by assuming that X is not the case’, and ‘We begin without making an assumption either way’.

The process of investigation should take us from what we begin by assuming to finding out what we can tell. Just because we begin without making an assumption either way, it does not necessarily follow that we cannot tell. If you suppose that the only way we can tell what is the case is by assuming it to be the case, you are incorrect. In fact, you can never tell what is the case just by assuming it to be the case.
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Old 11-20-2011, 06:43 PM   #185
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No.

In no case does a probability of 0% equate to uncertainty. If we are unable to make an estimate, that is not equivalent to a probability of 0%, it is equivalent to a probability which is quantitatively indeterminate. If we don't know the probability, that means that we don't know it, not that it is 0.

All these are supposed to represent possible postulates with varying strength of certitude. The 0% option does not equate to uncertainty but to a valid opinion on the relic in the form of a statement saying that we can cannot say that the evidence is either genuine or fabricated.


Quote:
If we are looking at the question of whether the relic is authentic and genuine (or not), then we might get something roughly like the following scale, as I said before:

100% The relic is definitely authentic and genuine
95% The relic is very highly likely to be authentic and genuine
75% The relic is probably authentic and genuine
55% The relic is more likely than not to be authentic and genuine
50% The chances that the relic is authentic and genuine are about even
45% It is more likely than not that the relic is not authentic and genuine
25% The relic is probably not authentic and genuine
5% There is little or no chance that the relic is authentic and genuine
0% The relic is definitely not authentic and genuine

If we are looking at the question of whether the relic is an inauthentic fabrication (or not), then we might get something roughly like the following scale:

100% The relic is definitely an inauthentic fabrication
95% The relic is very highly likely to be an inauthentic fabrication
75% The relic is probably an inauthentic fabrication
55% The relic is more likely than not to be an inauthentic fabrication
50% The chances that the relic is an inauthentic fabrication are about even
45% It is more likely than not that the relic is not an inauthentic fabrication
25% The relic is probably not an inauthentic fabrication
5% There is little or no chance that the relic is an inauthentic fabrication
0% The relic is definitely not an inauthentic fabrication


The relationship between the two scales depends on the precise way in which you have defined the two descriptions 'is authentic and genuine' and 'is an inauthentic fabrication'.
The two descriptions are antithetical.


Quote:
Either what you mean by 'is an inauthentic fabrication' is exactly and precisely the same as what you mean by 'is not authentic and genuine' or it is not.

The meanings are antithetical, and cannot be the same. The positive series consists of statements about the evidence being genuine and authentic. The negative series consists of statements about the evidence being fabricated and inauthentic. The zero statement separates the two series of antithetical claims, statements - in this case postulates.


Quote:
On the other hand, if the way you define the two descriptions makes it possible for something to fall into neither category, if it is possible for something to be neither 'authentic and genuine' nor 'an inauthentic fabrication' as you have defined those terms, then the two scales still cannot be combined into a single scale running from 100% to -100%. You still have two different scales both running from 0% to 100%, but you can say that if the probability on one scale is X%, then the probability on the other cannot be more than (100-X)%, although it may be less.

You seem to be missing the point that the purpose of the series here is to make a simple list all the possible postulates people can make about the authenticity and genuine nature of the historical existence of Paul (as an exmple).

The premise is either Paul is historical or Paul is fabricated. The list is labelled mutually exclusive. Thus you are permitted to select one and one only postulate between +100 and -100 including the 0 postulate. You cannot explore two postulates concurrently. The idea is that you lock in the postulate that best represents what you think the evindence best represents, and then move on down the list of evidence items - and there may be hundreds. Once the postulates are set, the POSTULATES about the evidence is input into the "Theory Generator" and conclusions are the output.

Note that this does not mean the same process cannot be repeated again and again and again in which different values are selected for "Paul", but only one value can be selected at once.

Another comment on ...
Quote:
You still have two different scales both running from 0% to 100%, but you can say that if the probability on one scale is X%, then the probability on the other cannot be more than (100-X)%, although it may be less.
The item is either genuine or fabricated, and we are ready to start testing hypotheses. If we only had the one scale with the positive authenticity being gauged, then anyone who has found, or suspects forgery and fabrication in the evidence, at worst, can only say "There is zero percent authenticity in this evidence."

The negative scale permits the antithetical statements "Not only is this evidence NOT authentic, it has been fabricated". The evidence must be represented by statements. A listing of all possible statements must include the antitheses of those statements, and therefore there will always be this +/- mirror which can be read as probability as you portray above.
You have made clear that you intend the two descriptions to be exclusive possibilities but you have not made clear whether you also intend them to be exhaustive.

You're wrong in either case, but there are two different ways you might be in error.
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Old 11-21-2011, 03:00 AM   #186
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The item is either genuine or fabricated, and we are ready to start testing hypotheses. If we only had the one scale with the positive authenticity being gauged, then anyone who has found, or suspects forgery and fabrication in the evidence, at worst, can only say "There is zero percent authenticity in this evidence."

The negative scale permits the antithetical statements "Not only is this evidence NOT authentic, it has been fabricated". The evidence must be represented by statements. A listing of all possible statements must include the antitheses of those statements, and therefore there will always be this +/- mirror which can be read as probability as you portray above.
You have made clear that you intend the two descriptions to be exclusive possibilities but you have not made clear whether you also intend them to be exhaustive.
What I have proposed is a postulate reserved for the expression of an assessment of historical authenticity. In respect of this attribute the descriptions are exhaustive in the simple case. This does not imply that other further postulates cannot be made about anything else apart from the assessment of historical authenticity. Other postulates are certainly required, for example related to chronology or what the evidence actually represents (eg: it is an inscription, it is a papyri fragment, it is a codex, etc)

In the positive sense a postulate can be selected that the evidence is to be considered genuine. In the negative sense, and mutually exclusive the negative postulate can be selected that the evidence is to be considered fabricated. In the case where it is to be claimed that the evidence cannot be contrued as either authentic or fabricated, the middle option is selected.

This is not setting things in cement, but just for the present instance of consideration. At another time, one might select a different postulate against this evidence item, and "reprocess" the conclusions. What I mean by "Reprocess" stems from the fact that there are perhaps 100's of evidence items, and each of them have their own series of antithetical postulates as described above. The process being described is therefore allowing for all the possible combinations and permutations of the selected postulates against all the evidence items. The theoretical conclusions are therefore being generated by reiterating the process of the selection of postulates.

I have tried to depict this in the schematic below, but the REITERATIVE NATURE of the process I am describing may not be clearly understood.


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Old 11-21-2011, 05:49 AM   #187
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I gather that you are suggesting that, in the case of the documents under discussion, the most probable reason for attributing their authorship to a 'Paul' is that, in the context in which the attribution was made, there was a well-known 'Paul' whose name would be taken as adding weight to any document attributed to his authorship.

Is that what you are saying? If so, then I have not yet seen you give a reason why you think this explanation more probable than any alternatives.
Yes, that is what I'm saying. My reason for assessing its probability as I do is that is it known to have happened in several other cases. Documents are known to have been written by obscure people claiming to be famous people, and the actual existence of those famous people is in most cases uncontested. I regard that as sufficient to establish Paul's existence as the default inference from the existence of documents attributed to him. Any alternative hypothesis, I would argue, requires additional evidence sufficient to undermine the default, i.e. we need some positive reason to think it unlikely that Paul existed notwithstanding that somebody used his name to add credibility to his writings.

I don't deny that Paul could have been a figment of early Christian imagination, but I have yet to see, from anybody in this forum or anywhere else, a cogent argument taking that proposition from "it's possible" to "it's probable."
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Old 11-21-2011, 05:59 AM   #188
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After dealing with some responses in this thread I am not so sure the process can be best described as thinking.
Right. If we don't agree with you, we just aren't really thinking.
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Old 11-21-2011, 06:22 AM   #189
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I gather that you are suggesting that, in the case of the documents under discussion, the most probable reason for attributing their authorship to a 'Paul' is that, in the context in which the attribution was made, there was a well-known 'Paul' whose name would be taken as adding weight to any document attributed to his authorship.

Is that what you are saying? If so, then I have not yet seen you give a reason why you think this explanation more probable than any alternatives.
Yes, that is what I'm saying. My reason for assessing its probability as I do is that is it known to have happened in several other cases. Documents are known to have been written by obscure people claiming to be famous people, and the actual existence of those famous people is in most cases uncontested. I regard that as sufficient to establish Paul's existence as the default inference from the existence of documents attributed to him. Any alternative hypothesis, I would argue, requires additional evidence sufficient to undermine the default, i.e. we need some positive reason to think it unlikely that Paul existed notwithstanding that somebody used his name to add credibility to his writings.

I don't deny that Paul could have been a figment of early Christian imagination, but I have yet to see, from anybody in this forum or anywhere else, a cogent argument taking that proposition from "it's possible" to "it's probable."
What a self-serving statement!!! You will not see any argument that undermines your flawed logics.

The existence of a character called Paul is NOT probable simply because there are letters with the name Paul.

It has been SHOWN to you that an epistle with the name PAUL is claimed to be written by TERTIUS.

SEE ROMANS 16.22
Quote:
I Tertius, who wrote this epistle, salute you in the Lord.
The character called PAUL did not have to exist for the Epistle to the Romans to have been written.

Your claim that Paul probably existed is LOGICALLY FLAWED unless you can't see.

Now, please identify where and when in the history of antiquity that Paul was FAMOUS?

Name a credible non-apologetic source that mentioned Paul??

Philo, Josephus, Tacitus and Suetonius wrote about events during the time of the so-called Paul and NOWHERE mentioned the name Paul or that Paul was Famous.

You must NOW see that you PRESUMED Paul was FAMOUS when you really have ZERO sources to support your claim.

The reasoning you provided is hopelessly FLAWED when you claim Paul probably existed.
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Old 11-21-2011, 06:58 AM   #190
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After dealing with some responses in this thread I am not so sure the process can be best described as thinking.
Right.

Trading dogma is hardly critical thinking is it?


Quote:
If we don't agree with you, we just aren't really thinking.


It does help critical thinking to state your disagreement in specific terms.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Socratic method From Wikipedia

The Socratic method is a negative method of hypothesis elimination, in that better hypotheses are found by steadily identifying and eliminating those that lead to contradictions.

The Socratic method searches for general, commonly held truths that shape opinion, and scrutinizes them to determine their consistency with other beliefs. The basic form is a series of questions formulated as tests of logic and fact intended to help a person or group discover their beliefs about some topic, exploring the definitions or logoi (singular logos), seeking to characterize the general characteristics shared by various particular instances.
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