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Old 12-20-2011, 02:56 PM   #521
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...

Here is the response-in-thread.

The substance bears repetition:

...
That's an interesting post, but has nothing to do with your diagram. It does not help your case to keep reposting the same material with no indication that you have figured out why people don't agree with you.
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Old 12-20-2011, 03:31 PM   #522
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According to the iterative process I have diagramized, exploring the positive historicity hypothesis implies setting the hypothesis that "Jesus existed in history" as provisionally true, and then examining all other evidence, and all other hypotheses about all other evidence using this hypothesis. Exploring the negative historicity hypothesis implies setting the hypothesis that "Jesus did not exist in history" as provisionally true, and then examining all other evidence, and all other hypotheses about all other evidence using this hypothesis.
This is what most people do, without your elaborate diagrams and algebraic formulae.

Apologists say - if Jesus did not exist, how did Christianity start? Why would they die for a lie? And this proves the existence and the divinity of Jesus for them.

Mythicists say - if Jesus existed, why is there no mention of him in a contemporary record?

There's no iteration here. You just pick what you think is the most dramatic unexplainable factoid that your preferred theory can explain, and dwell on it.

A gross simplification.


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But this has been done. It's not going to get you anywhere to repeat this.

How can there be any iteration for people who do not address all the possible items of evidence between the purported date of authorship of the NT in the 1st century and the late 4th century when it was officially canonized, and who instead - as you put it - dwell on some singular "factoid". I have presented the evidence as more than one factoid - an extendible series E1, E2, E3 ... - canonical and noncanonical evidence that has been discussed here over the years.

When I write above "all the other evidence" I am not presuming all the other evidence is one or two "factoids". I mean evidence like the "TF", "Paul-Seneca letter forgeries", Hegessipus, Papias and the Eusebian list of Bishops between the year dot and the late 4th century when the canon closed. And I include the gnostics and noncanonical sources, etc, etc, etc .

You are oversimplifying the evidence. It is not a singular factoid, it is a vast array of items in many categories, and the purpose of the theory of the best explanation is to explain the entire series of evidence.


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You've wasted this entire thread beating around the bush, talking about postulates when you might have meant hypotheses,

They are synonymous in general conversation.



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....misusing the technical term Null Hypothesis.

I did not misuse the technical term Null Hypothesis, you simply did not read the background to my claims and you did not read the specific disclaimer that I was specifically NOT talking about the technical term "Null hypothesis" as formally used in statistical hypothesis testing.
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Old 12-20-2011, 08:24 PM   #523
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The intended meaning was to be able to uniquely specify your own preferred formulation of your own hypothesis (related to whether Paul is to be considered a genuine and authentic historical character) in a manner which is explicit when set alongside other competing hypotheses of other posters, theorists and investigators.
I think it more likely that Paul really existed than that he did not exist. That hypothesis, in my judgment, underlies the most parsimonious accounting of all the extant evidence relevant to the provenance of the documents generally referred to as the Pauline Corpus.
Let's try this one more time. Restricting the focus just to the questions about the figure of Paul, how does this differ from the positive historicity hypothesis that I have discussed, namely "Paul existed". Had you instead responded that you thought it likely that Paul really did not exist then this is the negative historicity hypothesis. I cannot see that there is any substantial difference.
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Old 12-21-2011, 01:39 AM   #524
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..... The surviving evidence relating to Christian origins is pathetically sparse. That is why the methodology for evaluating it looms so large.....
No, it is NOT sparse.

The Jesus cult called Christians ORIGINATED in the 2nd century or at least AFTER the Fall of the Jewish Temple just exactly as the Evidence suggest.

It is people who have pathetically PRESUMED that the Jesus cult of Christians started in the 1st century who have Zero EVIDENCE and ASSUME the Evidence is Sparse.


We have lots of EVIDENCE:

1. Philo

2. Josephus.

3. Suetonius.

4. Tacitus.

5. Pliny the younger.

6. Justin Martyr.

7. Aristides.

8. Minucius Felix.

9. Lucian

10. Celsus.

11. The Short-Ending gMark (gMark without the resurrection appearance of Jesus).

12. Theophilus of Antioch.

13. Athenagoras of Athens.

14. The Muratorian Canon.

All these writers SUPPORT the theory that the Jesus cult of Christians was UNKNOWN before the Fall of the Temple c 70 CE.
A text which makes no reference to a subject is not normally evidence relating to that subject.
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Old 12-21-2011, 01:46 AM   #525
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Here is the response-in-thread.

The substance bears repetition:

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Originally Posted by sulla1 at historum
A fascinating question, Jack; thanks for asking

History's method is quasi-scientific; more exactly, it is as scientific (rigorous) as it can possibly be, given its particular circumstances.

Given that strict scientific methodology (i.e. up to double blind controlled trials plus metanalyses) is inherently impossible for History, the postulates of the historical hypotheses (often miscalled "theories") are subject to what is often called "mental experiements", in a nutshell rigorously controlled "what-if" speculation.

The traditional scientific methodology is reversed in one critical point; the results of the "mental experiment" (i.e. the present conditions of the issue at hand) are known in advance; it is the "methodology" of such process which is trying to be logically induced from such results.

In fact, the results are essentially the only potentially truly objective part of the process; ergo, extreme rigor is required for recording such results.

The process as a whole is superficially similar to pure philosophical research, given the ostensible relevance of logical reasoning (actually shared by any scientific discipline).

The critical difference is that, contrary to pure philosophical research and analogous to any scientific discipline, the method of History is restricted by the regular rules of evidence; the core falsifiable criteria of Popper are required too.

Even if in principle any past may be considered "History" in practice it is regularly restricted fundamentally to the study of the recorded (basically written) development of humankind; ergo, it is no surprise that the History method so often tends to overlap with the methodology of several other Humanities, notably anthropology and sociology.

For example, there are myriad hypotheses on the Fall of the Roman Empire.

All of them naturally begin from the easily verifiable hard fact that the Roman Empire doesb't survive to this day... or mostly, because some institutions like the Catholic and Orthodox churches ostensibly evolved directly form remnants of such empire. Such survival (i.e. one of the objective results of the process) even if limited, couldn't be ignored for any valid hypotheses on this process.

Besides, even the most superficial review will show how problematic the lack of consensus on the very definition of the studied results of this process may be, i.e. the "Fall"; some authors are ostensibly talking about the fall of the city of Rome, some others about the political conquest of the Roman empire by alien invaders, some other of the social collapse of the Western half of the empire, some others about the end of the Classical civilization as a whole, and so on.

More explicitly related to the "mental experiments" of the methodology of historical research, plenty of the purported explanations on why the Western Roman Empire "fell" are plainly unviable, simply because they fail to explain why did the Eastern side survived to the same process; the evidence of such survival (the results of such process) is still relevant and verifiable to this very day.

Hope this stuff may be helpful
Your interlocutor there makes the excellent point that the concept of 'the fall of the Roman Empire' does not have one clear single meaning, and that serious discussion of it requires analysing it into smaller components.

You should try abandoning your resistance to a parallel approach.
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Old 12-21-2011, 02:13 AM   #526
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It is clear that you don't know anything about hypothesis testing or logical argument.
Null is not zero. Don't confuse them.
I think you could have scored a point, in a debate against Pete, had you not inserted "logical argument" into your sentence claiming lack of clarity on his part, above.

Your problem is this: In Boolean testing, null IS zero. You cannot invoke "Baysian statistics", in the same breath claiming that null is not zero.

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Originally Posted by Wikipedia
Bayesian methods are widely accepted and used, such as in the fields of machine learning...
Machines "learn" using only zero and one, not some other value. Logic, Boolean logic, accepts only zero and one. The notion that null is not zero, is based on language studies, not mathematics: "null has no value, zero is a value, hence null does not equal zero", or something comparable....

This notion may win points among philosophers, but not among computer scientists.

If you wish to write about, and employ, Bayesian analysis, then, I suggest you put your humanities scholarship on the shelf, and dig out your calculus books instead....

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Old 12-21-2011, 02:35 AM   #527
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Unfortunately, I cannot put you on ignore.
This represents a very bizarre comment. Why would someone deliberately choose to "ignore" a submission to the forum, on a thread in which that individual has posted a response?

No one is compelling you to author rejoinders. You do so, one supposes, to assist those of us less skillful than you. I find your submissions, generally, constructive and helpful. This comment seems discordant, by comparison....

Do you imagine that either Pete, or other forum members, gain from this sentence?

Here's an illustration of what I admire, by contrast, when you introduce something positive into the conversation:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toto
Apologists say - if Jesus did not exist, how did Christianity start? Why would they die for a lie? And this proves the existence and the divinity of Jesus for them.

Mythicists say - if Jesus existed, why is there no mention of him in a contemporary record?
With respect to your criticism of this thread, I think you may have offered a very important contribution, but, in my opinion, your point, below, needs further elaboration:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toto
There's no iteration here. You just pick what you think is the most dramatic unexplainable factoid that your preferred theory can explain, and dwell on it.

But this has been done. It's not going to get you anywhere to repeat this. You've wasted this entire thread beating around the bush, talking about postulates when you might have meant hypotheses, misusing the technical term Null Hypothesis.

Baysian statistics takes this to another level.
What I have failed to comprehend, among many other aspects, of course, is this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toto
What you have presented is far from what Carrier is doing with Baysian statistics. Perhaps you will get to that point, but you are not there yet.
Maybe Pete's "elaborate diagrams and algebraic formulae" indeed fall short of the mark, but what I do not yet understand, maybe I am alone, among forum members, in this failing, is:

a. why "what Carrier is doing with Baysian statistics", should represent the gold standard, against which all other hypothetical testing of explanations of Christian origins must be compared; and

b. what mountainman must accomplish, to conform to Carrier's lofty methodology.


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Old 12-21-2011, 06:33 AM   #528
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Hypothesis testing is certainly highly related, but not central.
When you use terms like "null hypothesis," testing is what it's all about. It doesn't get more central than that.

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The thread was exploring the role of hypotheses in general within ancient history (and thus BC&H) in their representation of the evidence.
The role of hypotheses in ancient history is (or ought to be) the same as their role in science generally. They are offered as potential explanations of evidence, i.e. observed facts. Strictly speaking (which is how we should be speaking if we're trying to be scientific), an explanation is not the same thing as a representation.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:34 AM   #529
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I didn't say you were ignoring evidence.
Well I am not sure what your saying.
That comes as no surprise.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:51 AM   #530
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I think it more likely that Paul really existed than that he did not exist. That hypothesis, in my judgment, underlies the most parsimonious accounting of all the extant evidence relevant to the provenance of the documents generally referred to as the Pauline Corpus.
Let's try this one more time. Restricting the focus just to the questions about the figure of Paul, how does this differ from the positive historicity hypothesis that I have discussed, namely "Paul existed". Had you instead responded that you thought it likely that Paul really did not exist then this is the negative historicity hypothesis. I cannot see that there is any substantial difference.
This particular exchange goes back to your post #157. If you can see no difference, substantial or otherwise, between what you said there and what I said immediately above, then it is quite beyond my communicative abilities to set you straight.
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