jakejonesiv

I thought it would be interesting to do a quick statistical study of a control group from the period where we have some actual data. For the Roman Emperors (including those disputed) down to Constantine, I took the years of birth and death and calculated an age at death. I didn't take the time to include day and month, but the results should be close enough. In cases of disputed dates, I just picked one, and for a few, dates of birth were unknown.

It is true that the Roman emporers should have had much better living conditions than the average person, but they were also more susceptible to being assassinated! However, being an apostle would be even more hazardous, what with being martyred all the time (allegedly).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Roman_Emperors

Augustus 63 bce, 14 ce. 76
Tiberius 42 bce, 37 ce. 79
Caligula 12 CE, 41 CE. 29
Claudius 10 bce, 54 CE. 63
Nero 37 CE, 68 ce. 31
Gabla 3 bce, 69 ce. 71
Ortho 32 ce, 69 ce. 37
Vespasian 9 ce, 79 ce. 70
Titus 39 ce, 81 ce. 42
Domitian 51 ce, 96 ce. 45
Nerva 30 ce, 98 ce. 68
Trajan 53 ce, 117 ce. 64
Hadrian 76 ce, 138 ce. 62
Pius 86 CE, 161 ce. 75
Versus 130 ce, 169 ce. 39
Aurelius 121 ce, 180 ce. 59
Commodus 161 ce, 192 ce. 31
Pertanax 126 ce, 193 ce. 67
Julianus 133 ce, 193 ce. 60
Severus 145 ce, 211 ce 66
Caracalla 188 ce, 217 ce 29
Geta, 189 CE, 211 CE 22
Macrinus, 165 CE, 217 CE 52
Elagabalus, 203 CE, 222 CE 19
Alexander, 208 CE, 235 CE 27
Maximus, 173 CE, 238 CE 65
Gordian I, 159 CE, 238 CE 79
Gordian II, 192 ce, 238 CE 46
Pupienus, 178 ce, 238 CE 60
Balbinus, 165 CE, 238 CE 73
Gordian III, 225 ce, 244 ce 19
Phillip 204 ce, 249 ce 45
Decius 201 ce, 251 ce 50
Hostilon 230 ce, 251 ce 21
Trebonianius 206 CE, 253 CE 47
Aemilianus, 207 CE, 253 CE 46
Valerian, 200 CE, 260 CD 60
Gallienus, 218 CE, 268 CE 50
Claudius, 213 CE, 270 CE 57
Quintillus, 220 CE, 270 CE 50
Aurelian, 214 CE, 275 CE 61
Tacitus, 200 CE, 276 CE 76
Florianus, unknown, 276 --
Probus, 232 CE , 252 CE 50
Carus, 230 CE, 283 CE 53
Numerian, unknown, 284 CE --
Carinus, unknown, 285 CE --
Diocletian, 244, 311 CE 67
Maximian, 250, 310 CE 60
Constantius I, 250, 306 CE 56
Galerius, 260, 311 CE 51
Severus, unknown, 307 CE --
Constantine, 272, 337 CE 65

OK, Let's look at the results. The average age at death was 53, and the maximum age was 79.
Standard Deviation 16.81.

Jake

jakejonesiv

For those who died of natural cuases, plague seems to be the leading cause.

semiopen

This is interesting. The life expectancy of these guys is probably a lot higher than the average person.

This hasn't come up in this thread, but average generational length is important in DNA analysis. One would think that this would become shorter as life expectancy gets lower.

PhilosopherJay

Hi Jakejonesiv,

Nice statistics. I see that 7 out of 49 that have listed ages survived into their 70's, but 0 out of 49 survived till 80. Like the demographic table from Engand in the 18th century, this suggests that it is quite possible that 1 or 2 apostles would have made it into their 70's, but it is highly unlikely that any would have made it to 80. Again we're getting millionaire Lottery type chances that two apostles made it to 90 as Eusebius suggests in the Polycarp scenario. Add to the fact that Eusebius suggests that Polycarp himself made it to around 90 and we are into fantasyland.

Here's the age of the American presidents when they died

Washington, George 67
Adams, John 90
Jefferson, Thomas 83
Monroe, James 73
Madison, James 85
Harrison, William Henry 68
Jackson, Andrew 78
Adams, John Quincy 80
Polk, James K. 53
Taylor, Zachary 65
Van Buren, Martin 79
Tyler, John 71
Buchanan, James 77
Pierce, Franklin 64
Fillmore, Millard 74
Johnson, Andrew 66
Grant, Ulysses 63
Arthur, Chester A. 56
Harrison, Benjamin 67
Cleveland, Grover 71
Hayes, Rutherford B. 70
Roosevelt, Theodore 61
Harding, Warren G. 57
Wilson, Woodrow 67
Taft, William Howard 60
Coolidge, Calvin 60
Roosevelt, Franklin D. 63
Hoover, Herbert 90
Eisenhower, Dwight 78
Truman, Harry S 88
Johnson, Lyndon B. 64
Nixon, Richard 81
Ronald Reagan 93
Gerald Ford 93

Note that only 4 of the first 27 presidents made it to 80, but now, 5 of the last 7 presidents have made it to 80.

Only 1 of the first 27 made it to 90, but 3 of the last 7 have made it to 90. Both Carter and G.H.W. Bush are 85, so there is a good chance that two more will make it to 90.

Warmly,

Philosopher Jay

Vinnie

Didn't everybody agree on this already?

Vinnie

youngalexander

Graydon Snyder in Ante-Pacem pg 220 says of pre Constantinium Christians (taken from funerary inscriptions

In the SICV study, ..., fifty-three people out of 127 had died before ten years of age and another twenty-three died during their second decade. Over half of those marked by age had died before twenty. Young men had a median life expectancy of 17.6 years and women 19.4 (some other, more general studies would average about 2.5 years higher)

jakejonesiv

No doubt that is true. But we should only include those who lived long enough to become apostles, or with the control group, Roman emperors. This raises the average considerably, because the minimum would be about 19 years old.

Old age was considered to begin at 50 years old.

I agree with Jay. Living to 80 years old was extremely unlikely in that day. Did the SICV study list any statistics for the upper end? I doubt they could list a single example of living past 80, much less an age in excess of 90.

jakejonesiv

It is time we pulled back the curtain on the underlying issue. As long as the work under consideration was acceptable to orthodox doctrine, it was attributed to the apostle John, who then was given a long life span to testify to second century sources. But if the texts were viewed with suspicion, as Eusebius did with 2nd John, 3rd John and Revelation, then the author was some other John. EH 3.29. cf Jerome De viris illustribus (On famous men), chapter 9.

The alleged advanced age of the apostle was an apologetic device of the proto-orthodox.

youngalexander

Dunno.

Those reading this thread may be interested in Hawkes & Dienekes blogs:
Human lifespans have not been constant for the last 2000 years

Age-specific mortality rates have declined across the adult lifespan. A smaller fraction of adults die at 20, at 30, at 40, at 50, and so on across the lifespan. As a result, we live longer on average. Reductions in juvenile and infant mortality also contribute to increased life expectancy at birth, but the same trend is evident if we consider life expectancy at 15, 20, 30, or even 80. We live longer now than in the past.

spamandham

Exactly. This was the whole point of going through this demographic exercise, and computing probabilities that 3 of 12 disciples would live to ~80-90 *and* Polycarp lived to ~80-90.

Sure, it's *possible*, but we are at lottery style odds, and the simpler explanation is that it isn't historical. We can easily see why Irenaeus would benefit from apostolic succession, closing the case.