Freethought & Rationalism Archive

OneInFundieville · 09-15-2007, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Revolutionary

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneInFundieville

Assuming virgin birth and genetic clone of Mary 2 ^ 42 is still a big number.

Jesus was a woman?

I already said we gotta make some assumptions.

(Maybe the math can have the transgender option.)

OneInFundieville · 09-15-2007, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sarpedon

Moving to BC&H, our home for most Jeebus speculations

Not sure how BC&H will help me with estimating stats wrt common ancestry in a population.

HoverCraftWheel · 09-15-2007, 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneInFundieville

Quote:

Originally Posted by LuisGarcia

OiF, have you read the ancestors tale? There's a section on just this near the beginning

Yes I have. I gave it away though.

You gave away the Ancestor's Tale but kept you Bibles and theology books?

Are you sure you've got the hang of this deconversion thing?

OneInFundieville · 09-15-2007, 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoverCraftWheel

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneInFundieville

Yes I have. I gave it away though.

You gave away the Ancestor's Tale but kept you Bibles and theology books?

Are you sure you've got the hang of this deconversion thing?

What effect does books that sit on my shelves have?

Anyhow, this is the sort of thing I'm now looking at:

http://humphrysfamilytree.com/ca.math.html

Except try to combine with some parameters to apply to an Israelite/Jewish population rather than entire homo sapien population.

OneInFundieville · 09-15-2007, 03:46 AM

Jewish population, time of Jesus ~ 5 million.

log2(5 million) => 22 generations to MRCA of that population. Assumes near random mating giving geographic proximity of population.

Multiplied by 1.77 to get to estimated ACA point => 39 generations.

Chang's model, estimates off those living at the ACA point, 80% contributed genes to the population, 20% ancestors to no one in the population/no living descendants at that point.

What this roughly means is that probably everyone in Palestine in the time of Jesus was descended from somebody who was a living contemporary to Zerubbabel.

And that everybody living in Palestine in the time of Jesus was descended from ALL of about 80% of the people living a few generations after David and that the remaining 20%, well, they're genes just died out.

However, if any member of a population can trace ancestry back to any ancestors prior to the ACA, the implication is that every member of the population can.

So it really looks like every Jew in the time of Jesus was descended from David if Jesus was.

I'm unfamiliar with all of this but was surprised nothing had been written up on this. I couldn't find anything googling.

Ray Moscow · 09-15-2007, 04:09 AM

This very interesting. I had not considered 40 generations or so enough to reach the "most recent common ancestor" for any sizable ethnic group, but your reasoning seems good.

Maybe someone who with a background in population genetics can have a go?

Ray

OneInFundieville · 09-15-2007, 04:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Moscow

This very interesting. I had not considered 40 generations or so enough to reach the "most recent common ancestor" for any sizable ethnic group, but your reasoning seems good.

Maybe someone who with a background in population genetics can have a go?

Ray

My quick math was that it might have been 22 generations back to MRCA. Identical Ancestors point being around the 39 generations.

For someone with a background in this, it shouldn't be too hard to put together a model and maybe actually publish something.

Clivedurdle · 09-16-2007, 06:36 AM

But did David exist?:devil1:

Asha'man · 09-16-2007, 06:49 AM

In order to be of the kingly line of David, ancestry must be traced through the male line exclusively.

That changes your math considerably, I expect.

darstec · 09-17-2007, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneInFundieville

Luke has (at least) 43 generations between David and Jesus.

1 Kings has Solomon with 700 wives and 300 concubines.

Israelite population in the time of David and Solomon, maybe 5,000 to 50,000 persons.

Jewish population in the time of Christ, maybe 6 million.

A person has two parents, four grandparents, eight great-grandparents, etc.

2 ^ 43 is a big number. Assuming virgin birth and genetic clone of Mary 2 ^ 42 is still a big number. Triggers the whole discussion on common ancestry.

Anyhow, I don't know how one would estimate the degree to which a common ancestor's genes would work their way as a percentage into a population.

A few varibles would need to be factored in. Like how many grandchildren David would have had through all those 1,000 combined wives and concubines of Solomon. Degree of inter-breeding across tribe lines, etc.

Even in a few generations, I would think a high percentage of the Israelites would be descended from David.

In fact, I wonder if all living Israelites would have been a descendant of David within a dozen or fewer generations in that small of a popultion.

Ignoring the "throne" of David vs. just being a descendant for the moment (Romans 1:3 refers to Jesus as the "sperma" / G4690 / "seed" of David), I'm just curious...

Wouldn't all Jews have likely have been descended from David in the time of Jesus of Nazareth?

Wasn't the reason that the Regents and Priests ruled because all of David's heirs died? But then that was the male lineage. Joshua must have been a heir through one of David's wives or concubines. (Thus could not be of the royal line as royal lines were determined in those days.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

09-15-2007, 03:46 AM	#15
OneInFundieville Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Where I go Posts: 2,168	Jewish population, time of Jesus ~ 5 million. log2(5 million) => 22 generations to MRCA of that population. Assumes near random mating giving geographic proximity of population. Multiplied by 1.77 to get to estimated ACA point => 39 generations. Chang's model, estimates off those living at the ACA point, 80% contributed genes to the population, 20% ancestors to no one in the population/no living descendants at that point. What this roughly means is that probably everyone in Palestine in the time of Jesus was descended from somebody who was a living contemporary to Zerubbabel. And that everybody living in Palestine in the time of Jesus was descended from ALL of about 80% of the people living a few generations after David and that the remaining 20%, well, they're genes just died out. However, if any member of a population can trace ancestry back to any ancestors prior to the ACA, the implication is that every member of the population can. So it really looks like every Jew in the time of Jesus was descended from David if Jesus was. I'm unfamiliar with all of this but was surprised nothing had been written up on this. I couldn't find anything googling.

09-15-2007, 04:09 AM	#16
Ray Moscow Veteran Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Surrey, England Posts: 1,255	This very interesting. I had not considered 40 generations or so enough to reach the "most recent common ancestor" for any sizable ethnic group, but your reasoning seems good. Maybe someone who with a background in population genetics can have a go? Ray

09-16-2007, 06:36 AM	#18
Clivedurdle Contributor Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: London UK Posts: 16,024	But did David exist?:devil1:

09-16-2007, 06:49 AM	#19
Asha'man Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: southeast Posts: 2,526	In order to be of the kingly line of David, ancestry must be traced through the male line exclusively. That changes your math considerably, I expect.

Freethought & Rationalism Archive

The archives are read only.