Jinksy

I just got a very alarmist email from my mother, advising me to stock up on surgical face masks. Should I pay attention?

And if it's really that potentially dire, is there anything else we should/shouldn't be doing? Ie. are there any foods I should eat a lot of, and would it be worth working on my fitness (which is currently ok, but used to be a lot higher)?

And what exactly is tamiflu, and how effective/practical is it?

doghouse

The concern is that H5N1 and other subtypes (e.g. H9N2) of avian influenza could mutate such that they become able to spread from human to human. If this happens, it could very well spread worldwide and result in large numbers of deaths. The chances of this mutation are stochastic, that is largely random, so there’s no way to accurately predict when or if this will happen. But as H5N1 spreads throughout the bird population, the chances of such a mutation increases.

As for how serious this is, I personally think it’s worth keeping an eye on the situation but not worth a good panic.

Tamiflu is a trade name of oseltamivir, which inhibits neuraminidase, a glycoprotein on the surface of the virus that is necessary for relase of virus from infected cells. The drug in effect decreasing viral spread. Therefore, it’s only effective if administered early in the course of infection, within about 40 hours. With proper use, it reduces the severity and duration of the illness by about 40%.

Zanamivir (Relenza) is another neuraminidase inhibitor, which is administered by inhalation. There are several other antiviral drugs as well.

The biggest disadvantages of these drugs are the potential for the virus to develop resistance and drug shortages in case of an epidemic. The best way to ensure this happens is for everyone to run out and buy these drugs and then self administer them at the first sign of any illness.

Oh, and always pay attention to your mother.

Jinksy

Er... I'm not sure how seriously you meant your last two paragraphs. Are you earnestly suggesting stocking up on face masks and antiviral drugs?

And how would you know when to take them? I thought the early symptoms of avian flu were nearly indistinguishable from other strains..?

MagV

I wouldn't be too concerned, like doghouse said, its dependent on it mutating so that human-to-human transmission is possible. To me it seems like media-hype, anyone who reads the Herald Sun in melbourne could see that over the past week or so the issue they're telling people to be scared of has gone from 'terrorists are everywhere' to 'bird flu will come and get ya!'. And im sure the drug companies are laughing all the way to the bank.

mirage

I'm sure they're going to the bank, but they aren't laughing at the con job the media has done on us. It is perfectly reasonable for governments to be stocking up on this stuff. (only the damn supply is limited coz they have to get it from star anise only grown in the 5 provinces of China, and then it takes over a year to manufacture.) I think people's response has been reasonable. The media present the worst case scare scenarios, because everyone likes a sensational read, but the analysis, both in the media and from what I've heard of people discussing it, is for cautious monitoring and sensible preparations. It's all working as it should.

(Jinksy - Doghouse was saying that the best way for drug shortages and resistance to develop is for people to self administer at the first sign of any illness.)

Jinksy

That's what I thought. So the upshot of all this that it's not worth bothering with precautions?

Roland98

Depends on what precautions you mean. I'm certainly not stockpiling masks and Tamiflu, but it's always good sense to be careful with your sneezes and germ sharing, and to have an emergency supply of food, water, and other essentials on hand for any potential disaster.

Claudia

Read again what doghouse said. He says that the best way to help virus to create resistance to drugs is to run and buy these drugs then self administer.

So of course, he means that you must NOT buy them.

Cynthia of Syracuse

Eat well, sleep well, try not to sweat the small stuff, don't share food or drinks if you (general) are sick or with someone who is, cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze, wash your hands. Oh yeah, and don't drag your sneezy, wheezy, oozing, hacking, feverish butt into school/work and share it with the rest of us. Hauling yourself off of (what you wish was) your deathbed is not proof of devotion or machismo, it's just inconsiderate and possibly the sign of a pathological martyr complex.

Repeated to the point of triteness? Yep. Will it protect you from malaria, amoebic dysentery, cancer or Ebola? Probably not. But for most of the stuff most of us are going to be exposed to, those are the precautions that will retard the problem, even if there's no way to completely prevent it.

Oh, yeah, and the ultimate precaution: Don't Panic. Alarmists and snake-oil salesmen can smell fear from hundreds of miles away.

chapka

Actually, I'd argue that there's one more thing (probably the most useful) you can do: support basic scientific research.

There was a good article in the Economist a few weeks back about some of the interesting research that's going on to try to make influenza vaccines easier and faster to develop and to make them more effective at lower doses. There's also antiviral research going on that could result in something more effective than Tamiflu (which public health types don't expect to do much more than hopefully slow the spread of any dangerous strain).

Government fuding of biological research can help. But more important is that the government doesn't actively interfere in biological and medical research, either with idiotic policies like Bush's stem-cell "compromise," or by attempting to brainwash potential future scientists into believing that basic biological concepts such as evolution are evil.