Freethought & Rationalism Archive

mountainman · 11-17-2011, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanya

Quote:

Originally Posted by youngalexander

As to JC, I await the results of a knowledgeable Bayesian analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolfram

Bayesian analysis is a statistical procedure which endeavors to estimate parameters of an underlying distribution based on the observed distribution.

I would argue that you have a long wait, ahead.

The key words here are: "observed distribution".

Bayes' theorem can't manufacture data. It rather, depends upon the data out there. No amount of Bayes' manipulations, can change the content of Codex Sinaiticus.

C14 dating might be used if we could find a Nessie bone. The key words here are: "Observed distribution". The C14 distribution curve can tell us approximately when and if Nessie, within the Loch, in the words of the poet, last "lived and breathed and had its being".

But can Bayes' theorem rule out quantum states? What if we are dealing with a quantum Nessie, who sometimes exists and other time does not exist? Maybe we need a version of Schrödinger's cat paradox for the Loch Ness Monster and Jesus?

Quote:

Schrödinger's Nessie:

A Loch Ness monster, along with a flask containing a poison and a radioactive source, is placed in a sealed box shielded against environmentally induced quantum decoherence. If an internal Geiger counter detects radiation, the flask is shattered, releasing the poison that kills the Nessie. The Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics implies that after a while, the Nessie is simultaneously alive and dead. Yet, when we look in the box, we see the Nessie either alive or dead, not both alive and dead.

youngalexander · 11-21-2011, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanya

Quote:

Originally Posted by youngalexander

As to JC, I await the results of a knowledgeable Bayesian analysis.

I would argue that you have a long wait, ahead.

I have waited moderately,
yet longer than I wont,
but yet my want
may be not yet longer!

Steven Carr · 11-21-2011, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilosopherJay

I will argue that the evidence for the existence of Nessie, the Loch Ness Monster, is much better than any evidence for the existence of Jesus.

The evidence for Nessie:

Eyewitness accounts: At least 110 dating back to Saint Columbia in the sixth century. In 1933 alone, 25 people claimed to have seen him. Many of the witnesses were outstanding and upright citizens.

Photographs - dozens
film and videos - 27 dating from 1933 to 1992.
sonar encounters - 16 dating back from 1954 to 1972.
Histories - dozens of contemporary book and magazine articles.
100's of mentions in contemporary literature.

The evidence for the existence of the Maitreya is also overwhelming.

'How many interviews has Maitreya now given in the USA and Mexico?

A. 43 [12 September 2011].'

In fact, Benjamin Creme has just received a message from him
http://share-international.org/magaz...11/2011-10.htm

This is at least as convincing as Paul's claim to have received from the Lord all kinds of things.

Of course, the Maitreya does not exist.

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