Alter

Quick, name the groups in the western world that continue to have boatloads of kids.

Answer:

Ultra-Orthodox Jews

Strict "Islamist" Muslim immigrants

Amish

Strict Mormons

Bangladeshi Muslims in England


Name the groups that don't have dozens, but still reproduce well above the replacement rate of 2.1 kids per family:


Strict fundamentalist Catholics

Orthodox Jews

Mainstream Mormons

Mennonites

some Fundamentalist Christian groups

Devout Muslims

Hispanic Catholics



Net result: people are going to get more and more religious, as the stronger your religious beliefs, the more kids you will have. The news that half of England is now atheist/agnostic is good, but demographics are against us. Either we have to breed mroe or deconvert more.

Thoughts?

MadPhatCat

Well most fundamentalists are ignorant of the facts... and they often seem to distrust science as well. Total deconversion is pretty drastic when if you think about it the fundamentalists are what we really need to worry about. While a good education may not deconvert lots of folks, it will help make them more moderate IMHO.

Stiletto One

Aside from the strong negative correlation between fundamentalism and education, there's the one between education and childbirth. Smarter people don't want to put up with kids; dumber people are like "kids are fun!".

J-D

I would guess that the groups you mention have always had high birthrates. I would also guess that they had higher birthrates than non-believers during the historical period over which the percentage of non-believers has risen to its present level. Therefore, I would guess that the demographic shift towards non-belief has been a result of people born into religious believing families abandoning their families' beliefs. If there was such a trend, it might have stopped by now, but it also might be continuing. I don't think the believers can guarantee outnumbering us just by outbreeding us.

Alter

I dunno, there's a new strain of separatism within western countries that is disturbing, and the Bush plan plays into it.

For many years, the West embraced Nationalism. The American ideal was a school that looked like a Rockwell painting. Kids all went together, learned together, in a common setting, with common teachings. Your kid's a Muslim? Tough crap, go to the public school. Atheist? Tough, Merry Christmas.

It was actually GOOD for breaking down the traditional role of the church, as it homogenized each country in the West. It forced people to interact, work, and live with those of different faiths, and CONFORMITY was the rule.

Now, some of the ideals of diversity are laudable: expose kids to various cultures, instead of mandating one culture. But once you go the private, religious school route, you have segregated the kids. Will a Muslim kid ever meet a non-Muslim, and see the viewpoints of people besides his own kind? Never. What about a kid sent to a voucher-supported fundamentalist school? God on the brain, and no peers to contradict.

So the forces that de-religionized the West are being removed at the foundation: public-school, mixed education. Without that, the ultra-Catholic kid will marry the ultra-Catholic girl in his math class and raise ultra-ultra-Catholic kids. Same for any other religion.

PoodleLovinPessimist

Read The Marching Morons, by CM Kornbluth.

Personally, I think intelligence is a passing fad.

infinity

actually i think it's that smarter people don't want to put up with kids; dumber people are like "i'm not putting a balloon on my dick! and you're not taking those damn pills, the pope says they're evil"

hinduwoman

Please you all sound too much like Hindu religious nationalists.
They are urging Hindus to have more children (more Hindus including lower classes practice birthcontrol and have operations because religious prohibitions of it don't exist) so that Muslims would not have the demographic advantage.
It is true that Muslim population has shot up; in every state in India including the equivalent of Bible belt their birth rate is higher than the Hindus', but asking Hindus to have more children is not the answer.!

shome42

How much energy does it take to raise a child? Now how much energy does it take to deconvert one person?

For this reason alone I think it's more efficient to deconvert rather than raise atheist kids. Whats more, you can actually have the theist expend all their energy raising kids, then with your little bit of energy, actually deconvert them. It's kind of like letting someone do all the hard work, then snag it away and make it your own. :thumbs:

J-D

You may be over-generalising from the USA to the West as a whole. The rigorous legal exclusion of religion from public and publicly funded schools found in the USA is not characteristic of Western countries generally, although the details obviously vary. Note, however, that generally speaking religiosity is less in those other Western countries than it is in the USA.