Vinnie

I put a pdf of this up online....http://ecwar.org/controlpopulationlifeexpectancy.pdf

spamandham

According to Irenaeus, John and other unnamed apostles appointed polycarp, so you need to consider X take 3, rather than 2. Even at 1000 disciples, the odds are low with the assumed probabilities you're using, although not unrealistic.

But it isn't valid to assume 100 or 1000 apostles, because the entire purpose of this exercise was to evaluate the reliability of the claims of Irenaeus.

Irenaeus passes on the tradition of 12. He is either fudging that number for apologetic purposes, or he is fudging the appointment of Polycarp by apostles of Jesus for apologetic purposes, or he just has no idea what he's talking about. In any of these cases, Irenaeus is unreliable in regards to information about the early church.

jakejonesiv

Vinnie,

Good points.

Lead pipes constructed by the Roman Empire were an unfortunate choice. The mortality rate among wealthy Romans was high due to the fact that their water came in via Lead Pipes. Also lead acetate (sugar of lead) was used to sweeten the wine, the dainties and elaborate sauces of the Roman aristocracy.

Lead Poisoning and Rome

It is probably too much to say that lead poisoning contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire, but higher mortality rates are to be expected.

Best,
Jake Jones IV

rlogan

You are saying they sold lifetime annuities without even knowing anything about how long people lived?!

That is preposterous. So what we need to do is stop talking about your guesses on how the insurance industry worked...

and stick to the point: you have no evidence that mortality was the same between the rich and the average.



Note I said "Plague and other endemic diseases". From my own work I know for a fact that various endemic diseases swept through cities like London whereas the countryside was far safer.


I see you have backed off and are asking a question now instead of making an assertion, which is wise. Furthermore you have changed the question.

Before the question was over whether "rich people live longer". Now it is "rich people live longer, but the difference is larger than it was in antiquity..."



The assertion involved a disciple. I only know of 12.

rlogan

I asked if you have access to peer-reviewed literature in the library or through a university. I am not asking if you do google searches and come up with articles available without subscriptions.

Peterdgi - I missed an earlier citation and I apologize. I am reading it with great interest now.

vincent - Hi there. Well aware, thanks. Not willing to calculate probabilities until I actually have something to go on.


I see I let my password expire at the university again. Every six months they do that to me. I have missed the deadline approximately 3 dozen times now... *#@!!

Petergdi

Well, I think I should shift my position to one I think more defensible.

You know much more about insurance than I do. You are thus free to tell me when I'm dead wrong.

Where exactly do you get the idea that either "disciple" or "apostle" was limited to the twelve?

Peter.

Petergdi

The paper is good. My understanding may be lousy. I'm sure you will get more out of it.

Peter.

Vincent Guilbaud

spamandham said
In keeping with our hypothetical probability for a rebellious Jewish/Christian peasant to live up to 90:
0.001 = 0.1%
(which is, I am pretty sure, above reality)

For 12 Disciples:
P(3/12 Disciples > 90) = (12*11*10/3*2)*(0.001)^3*(0.999)^9 = 0.000000218
= 1 chance on 5 millions

For 100 Disciples:
P(3/100 Disciples > 90) = (100*99*98/3*2)*(0.001)^3*(0.999)^97 = 0.0001467
= 1 chance on 7 thousands

So, again, this can't be historical truth.
Take it as you want: fairy tale or big lie from Irenaeus.

Huon

Augustus (27 BC-14 CE) died illness
Tiberius (14-37) died quietly in a villa at Misenum
Gaius Caligula (37-41) murdered by the praetorian tribune Cassius Chaerea
Claudius (41-54) poisoned a second time before dying
Nero (54-68) committed suicide with assistance
Galba (68-69) Otho publicly killed Galba
Otho (69) committed suicide
Vitellius (69) tortured, killed, and tossed into the Tiber
Vespasian (69-79) died peacefully
Titus (79-81) the evidence is highly contradictory
Domitian (81-96) assassinated in a palace plot
Nerva (96-98) suffered a stroke during a private audience
Trajan (98-117) died illness
Hadrian (117-138) died illness
Antoninus Pius (138-161) died illness
Marcus Aurelius (161-180) died illness
Lucius Verus (161-169) died illness
Avidius Cassius (175) killed
Commodus (176-192) strangled in his bath
Pertinax (192-193) a group of soldiers mutinied and killed him
Didius Julianus (193) Didius Julianus was executed
Septimius Severus (193-211) died York
Pescennius Niger (193-194) (Syria, Byzantium), killed
Clodius Albinus (196-197) (Britain, Gaul), suicide
Geta (211) killed by order of Caracalla
Caracalla (198-217) killed
Macrinus (217-218),defeated, captured, killed (Parthian ruler Artabanus V)
Diadumenianus (218) captured, killed (Parthian ruler Artabanus V)
Elagabalus (218-222) killed by order of Severus Alexander
Severus Alexander (222-235) a group of soldiers mutinied and killed him
Maximinus Thrax (235-238) a group of soldiers mutinied and killed him
Pupienus (238) killed
Balbinus (238) killed
Gordian I (238) beaten at Carthage by Capelianus, suicide
Gordian II (238) killed at Carthage by Capelianus
Gordian III (238-244) died of illness near Circesium, along the Euphrates
Philip the Arab (244-249), died in the battle of Verona or was assassinated by his troops
Decius (249-251) defeated, killed (Cniva king of the Goths)
Trebonianus Gallus (251-253) Gallus' troops mutinied and murdered the two co-emperors
Volusianus (251-253) Gallus' troops mutinied and murdered the two co-emperors
Emilianus (253) ancient sources agree with Zonaras that he was killed by his troops
Valerian (253-260) defeated, killed (Persian king Sapor)
Gallienus (253-268) a plot involving Claudius and Aurelian assassinated him.
Claudius II Gothicus (268-270) caught the plague and died at Sirmium
Aurelian (270-275) the troops murdered Aurelian
Tacitus (275-276)
Florianus (276) assassinated by his own troops near Tarsus.
Probus (276-282) Probus' remaining troops killed the emperor
Carus (282-283) died naturally of illness
Numerianus (283-284) bizarre manner of his death
Carinus (283-285) battle against Diocletian at the Margus River
Diocletian (284-305) resigned 305, died naturally 316
Maximianus Herculius (286-305) died after a plot against Constantine
Constantius I Chlorus (305-306) died at York
Galerius (305-311) normal death
Maximinus Daia (305-313) Daia fled to Tarsus. Licinius put Daia's wife and children to death
Maxentius (306-312) killed Milvian Bridge
Constantine I (307-337) normal death
Licinius I (308-324) put to death by Constantine
Constantine II (337-340) died in a battle fought against Constans
Constans I (337-350) orthodox, put to death
Magnentius (350-353) suicide
Decentius (351-353) hanged himself at Senonae
Constantius II (337-361) Sympathetic to Arianism, normal death
Julian the Apostate (360-363) Killed at war in Assyria
Jovian (363-364) cause of his death was most probably natural
Valentinian I (364-375) suffered a stroke that ended his life
Valens (364-378) Adrianople, burned to death in a tower by Gothic marauders
Gratian (367-383) killed at Lyons by Andragathius, Maximus’ magister equitum
Valentinian II (375-392) suicide
Theodosius I (378-395) death by illness
Magnus Maximus (383-388) executed by Theodosius I at Aquileia on 28 August 388
Flavius Victor (384-388) executed by Theodosius I at Trier
Eugenius (392-394) killed in his camp on 6 Sept. 394, after Frigidus (Wippach) River

mountainman

Philostorgius reports that Constantine was poisoned
by his brothers during his stay at Nicomedia, by way of
atonement for the violent death of Crispus.