sparknote_s

Here's a question that could be used as an argument.

For every theory such as the big bang theory, evolution, etc, there is a very very small chance of it happening. Such a small chance that you could say by believing in evolution, our world is a product of random chance.

But, here's the question.

If you have eternity to wait for a probability, could you argue that eventually it WILL happen?

Like if there is a 1E-9999999999999999999999999999999999999 chance of event a becoming true, and you have eternal past and present for it to happen, will it happen?

If you could argue that, then you could argue that it would happen NOW. If it's had eternity to happen, then it would have already happened. If it already happened, we are most likely experiencing the result right now...

I'm not sure if this makes any sense. It sounds like the beginning of a nice argument for evolution...

Any ideas on how to further this idea?

wade-w

First, this looks like it would go better in E/C.

This isn't very accutate. First, evolution is a fact, as well as a theory. The fact is, life does evolve, and this has been observed. Thus the probability of evolution occuring is p=1, not "very very small." The Theory of Evolution is our attempt to explain the observed facts.

Or are you refering to abiogenesis? (Hint: That is not the same thing as evolution.)

Regardless, either I have misunderstoond what you mean here, or you don't understand what a scientific theory is.

No, it does not follow that because a given event has a non-zero probability that given enough time, even an eternity, it will occur. What it does means is that it could happen. But I wouldn't bet 2 cents on it, myself.

corn

I disagree wade. If an event has a non zero probability and that event was given an infinite amount of chances to occur then it will occur. Otherwise, the probability of it happening is zero.

Although, i am not an expert at evolution, i would say that if all things where true in the intial question, then teh conclusion can be correct. But that is assuming that the non zero probability is true.

braces_for_impact

Moving to E/C...

Duvenoy

As science moves onward, more and more amazing discoveries are found. I have come under the opinion that the main law governing the universe is Murphy's.

If it can happen, it most certainly will and possibly, even probably, already has.

doov

wade-w

Why?

Remember, for any independent event, the probability of the event occuring is the same on the first trial as it is on the 1,000th trial, and is still the same on the trillionth trial, etc. The number of trials is not relevant!

ThePhoenix

Yeah, this is the exact inverse of the arguement used by creationists that evolution is so wildly improbably that it's impossible. I'll give you a hint - the inverse of a bad arguement ain't great.

corn

That priciple only hold for finite opportunties. We are talking about infintite time here. I didnt make it up, im just plagarising what i learnt in mathamatics.

Jet Black

it depends on the nature of your eternity too, and the nature of the scenario in which your probability occurs. To make it clear what I am saying, the odds of you flipping a head a million times in a row is (really small number). Now on one hand you might think that if you have an eternity, then after some time you would flip a million heads in a row. The problem with this of course is that after so many landings the coin will eventually wear down and corrode away. so even if you have an eternity, you will probably still never do it, because your coin doesn't last that long. The same goes with abiogenesis (since the OP is not really about evolution) since it is reliant on that nature of the environment in which it can happen, which invariably changes into one in which abiogenesis can no longer happen.

HRG

Fine distinction: what is true is that the probability of it not occurring is zero - which does not mean that it will occur if the underlying probability space is not discrete.

Analogy: the probability that a real number is rational is zero. Yet rational numbers exist.

Regards,
HRG.