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Old 04-12-2005, 12:12 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by andrewcriddle
There have been several threads on the reliability of oral tradition of past events as a function of time.

According to research by modern and ancient historians, reliability seems to become a major problem somewhere between 50 and 120 years after the events.

(See Ronald Hutton 'Witches Druids and King Arthur' chapter 1 for discussion and references)

I gave a hundred as a typical figure from these studies.
Your use of the phrase "say 100 years after the event", led me to believe that you were arbitrarily pulling the number out of a hat. Had you provided this information earlier I doubt that I would have taken you to task, sorry for the derail.

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Originally Posted by andrewcriddle
Without getting sidetracked by questions of the exact period of reliability, would you agree that material committed to writing say 40 years after the event must be treated very differently from material only written down 140 years after the event ?
Personally, I would say that both sets of material should be viewed as highly suspect. Of course the longer you go between an event and its recording, the more chance you have of getting things entirely wrong, but I think 40 years is sufficient time for even an eyewitness to screw up nearly every detail.

I sometimes have problems remembering exactly what my boss told me 5 minutes ago, especially when it concerns working as opposed to visiting IIDB.
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Old 04-12-2005, 01:30 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Ulrich
I think 40 years is sufficient time for even an eyewitness to screw up nearly every detail.
By now this should be an eternal verity. Eyewitnesses are notoriously unreliable. Just a cursory check of Psychology journals will give you plenty of evidence. Best one I've heard about recently was where someone in a gorilla suit walked across a basketball court in the middle of the play. Later interrogation of witnesses found that a majority of them never even noticed what should have been very obvious.
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