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Old 07-26-2011, 12:12 PM   #101
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The preponderance of the evidence does very well to support the proposition of a historical Jesus, well above 50% certainty.
But it doesn't. You don't have a way of measuring the probability, or even estimating it. That's the point of Richard Carrier's attempt to use Baysian statistics. All of your estimates of probability are subjective, and come down to arguments from your personal incredulity.
Yeah, I suppose the same could be said for decisions of liability in civil trials. Lawyers only very seldom use robust statistical probability algorithms to make their cases, most of the time the standard is decided rather more subjectively, and I think the case for a historical Jesus is analogous. A historical Jesus does very well to explain many of the details of the Christian myths about Jesus, and it is by far the best hypothesis. MJers would be found liable.
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Old 07-26-2011, 12:31 PM   #102
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.... Lawyers only very seldom use robust statistical probability algorithms to make their cases, most of the time the standard is decided rather more subjectively, and I think the case for a historical Jesus is analogous.
It is precisely analogous. Lawyers merely present evidence to avoid a summary judgment from the court, so they can appeal to the emotions of the jurors. That's why you can get big verdicts for sympathetic plaintiffs based on junk science.

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A historical Jesus does very well to explain many of the details of the Christian myths about Jesus, and it is by far the best hypothesis. MJers would be found liable.
That is the proposition that you have been trying to prove, and failing so far.

The details of the Christian myths about Jesus all seem to go back to the Hebrew scriptures or Hellenistic cultural elements. You only reach for the historical Jesus for a few elements that you subjectively have decided are too embarrassing or contradictory for Christians to have invented.
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Old 07-26-2011, 12:50 PM   #103
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.... Lawyers only very seldom use robust statistical probability algorithms to make their cases, most of the time the standard is decided rather more subjectively, and I think the case for a historical Jesus is analogous.
It is precisely analogous. Lawyers merely present evidence to avoid a summary judgment from the court, so they can appeal to the emotions of the jurors. That's why you can get big verdicts for sympathetic plaintiffs based on junk science.
Huh. You were the one who introduced the analogy to a civil court case. Is that why you did so? Because civil court judgments are based on junk science?
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A historical Jesus does very well to explain many of the details of the Christian myths about Jesus, and it is by far the best hypothesis. MJers would be found liable.
That is the proposition that you have been trying to prove, and failing so far.

The details of the Christian myths about Jesus all seem to go back to the Hebrew scriptures or Hellenistic cultural elements. You only reach for the historical Jesus for a few elements that you subjectively have decided are too embarrassing or contradictory for Christians to have invented.
Sounds about right. The point is to find the explanations that fit fit the evidence the best, and the historical Jesus theory fits very many points of evidence very well, with explanatory power, unity and plausibility, well above and beyond any competing proposition. I think that makes for a conclusive case that meets the standard of "preponderance of evidence."
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Old 07-26-2011, 03:59 PM   #104
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It is precisely analogous. Lawyers merely present evidence to avoid a summary judgment from the court, so they can appeal to the emotions of the jurors. That's why you can get big verdicts for sympathetic plaintiffs based on junk science.
Huh. You were the one who introduced the analogy to a civil court case. Is that why you did so? Because civil court judgments are based on junk science?
I thought that it might dramatize the question of drawing conclusions based on probability.

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That is the proposition that you have been trying to prove, and failing so far.

The details of the Christian myths about Jesus all seem to go back to the Hebrew scriptures or Hellenistic cultural elements. You only reach for the historical Jesus for a few elements that you subjectively have decided are too embarrassing or contradictory for Christians to have invented.
Sounds about right.
Are you agreeing with me?

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The point is to find the explanations that fit fit the evidence the best, and the historical Jesus theory fits very many points of evidence very well, with explanatory power, unity and plausibility, well above and beyond any competing proposition.
You keep repeating that like a mantra, but in fact you have failed to show that the HJ theory is such a theory. You have no coherent explanation for why Jesus was executed but not his followers, or many other points.

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I think that makes for a conclusive case that meets the standard of "preponderance of evidence."
Only if your jury does not know how to evaluate the evidence.
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