Freethought & Rationalism ArchiveThe archives are read only. |
02-08-2006, 09:34 AM | #51 | ||
Regular Member
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 220
|
Quote:
Regards, Notsri |
||
02-08-2006, 09:59 AM | #52 | |||||
Veteran Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA, Missouri
Posts: 3,070
|
Ok, I have to respond to this:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
In the case of a fiction writer choosing a name for a character, it is the concept of randomness that is being tested. If the odds are only 10% that a name is randomly chosen and it is still chosen, then we conclude that the name most likely wasn't randomly chosen by the author. In the case of a historical person having a name, it again is the concept of randomness that is being tested. If the odds are only 10% that a given person would have a name and yet he does, then we again conclude that this isn't likely by random chance. As such, either we conclude that it isn't likley that the person was really historical (since there is an alternative of fabrication), or that there are other non-random factors contributing to that person having the name (such as self-fullfilment). The deliberateness of the parents is really irrelevant to this question. You are confusing the idea that a given parent doesn't randomly name his child with the randomness that is being tested: Again: We aren't testing how random the parent's choice was here. We are testing how likely it is that a person who behaved like a messiah had a particular name. That's all. You can object (perhaps reasonably) that the sample of typical Jews isn't good enough, and I need a sample of typical messiah claimants, but any objection on the grounds that parents don't randomly name their kids is misguided. Quote:
If 10 of these debates were going on and we knew that on average 9 people in my shoes quit at this point, and I decided to continue, we can mathematically say that the probabilities don't support my deliberate choice. 9 times out of 10 they would predict that I would quit, and 90% of the time they would be right. THAT'S what this is about. To reject this use as meaningless because I personally make a deliberate choice to continue on in this madness for whatever reason simply misses the point that on average the statistics can accurately predict what behavior I would take--even though my shoes aren't EXACTLY like other people's shoes. Having said all of this, I'm more than ready to quit. ted |
|||||
02-08-2006, 09:59 AM | #53 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Eagle River, Alaska
Posts: 7,816
|
Quote:
|
|
02-08-2006, 10:06 AM | #54 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Eagle River, Alaska
Posts: 7,816
|
Quote:
If he were to do the necessary groundwork, he might be able to produce a statistical comparison between the frequency of messianic names among the general population as compared to the frequency among identified messianic claimants. Assuming without any justification that they two are identical, however, tells us absolutely nothing useful. |
|
02-08-2006, 10:37 AM | #55 | |||
Veteran Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Eagle River, Alaska
Posts: 7,816
|
Quote:
Quote:
There is no apparent connection between the frequency with which parents chose messianic names and the likelihood that an author would randomly choose a messianic name for his main character. There is no apparent connection between an author randomly choosing names for his main character and the actual practices of authors choosing names for their main character. Quote:
It is painfully clear to me that you have no idea how to properly use or interpret statistics, Ted, but it is just as painfully clear that you have no interest in acknowledging that fact or in making any effort to change it. Perhaps it will only become apparent to you if you attempt to apply actual data to support conclusions about whether the name "Jesus" was more likely a fictional creation or a historical name. |
|||
02-08-2006, 11:11 AM | #56 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA, Missouri
Posts: 3,070
|
Quote:
ted |
|
02-08-2006, 11:38 AM | #57 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: USA
Posts: 1,307
|
Quote:
That a Messiah claimant has a popular name for the time says more about what that time is than about his historicity. |
|
02-08-2006, 12:01 PM | #58 | |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA, Missouri
Posts: 3,070
|
Quote:
Certainly the discussion has gotten off course, but that is because it seemed to me that Amaleq was saying that any attempt to find meaning in the frequency of it's use as a way to compare fabrication vs historical is misguided. I don't see why. ted |
|
02-08-2006, 01:44 PM | #59 | |||||||||||||
Veteran Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Eagle River, Alaska
Posts: 7,816
|
Quote:
From http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rep...ative%20sample: 1.representative sample - the population is divided into strata and a random sample is taken from each stratum Quote:
Quote:
You are also still ignoring the fact that there is little reason to think the choice is ever random so there is, in turn, little reason to try to develop a statistical analysis addressing such an inherently unlikely possibility. Folks don't tend to choose their pie at random and authors don't tend to name their main characters at random. You are saying nothing useful by suggesting they don't and, more importantly, you certainly cannot obtain that conclusion from a frequency distribution describing deliberate choices. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
|||||||||||||
02-08-2006, 02:11 PM | #60 |
Veteran Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA, Missouri
Posts: 3,070
|
my head hurts..will have to think about it for a while.. If you are right about this, you have my sincere appreciation. Heck, even if you are wrong, I still admire your patience, though can't say I would appreciate it..
ted |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|